Likelihood of Success

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Archive for the ‘Politics and Poker’ Category

Blessing with faint damnation

Posted by Ron Coleman on August 23, 2007

In “Behind Giuliani’s Tough Talk,” Time magazine steps up to begin the attack process — completely legitimate — on the Republican front-runner. I read the article and did not find it particularly damning. Not that there aren’t weaknesses to discuss; there are. But it’s very telling that the best Time could do for a serve-it-up opinion on Giuliani’s leadership style was this:

Giuliani’s record on managing the city’s emergency responders is more telling—and shows a more complicated leadership style than Americans saw on 9/11. “When we reflected on his tenure, we saw qualities that were not helpful,” says Jamie Gorelick, a member of the 9/11 commission and former Deputy Attorney General in the Clinton Administration. “[For President], I think you want someone who is not polarizing. Someone who brings people together by the power of persuasion rather than the power of dictate. Someone who is considering of other points of view and ultimately decisive. And on all three scores, I have serious doubts about the mayor.”

Laughter abounds. Jamie Gorelick?! They quoted that Jamie Gorelick?

You have to like Rudy’s chances more and more.

Posted in Medialites, Politics and Poker | 13 Comments »

It couldn’t hurt

Posted by Ron Coleman on August 23, 2007

Instapundit says, regarding the demonstration from the record that Bill Clinton was — surprise! — lying when he wagged the Famed Finger of Falsehood and claimed he had tried to knock off (the now dead, thank God) Osama bin Ladin, “This won’t help Hillary.”

Well, literally true: It won’t make the slightest difference! Hillary voters are in complete denial about any aspect of blame or responsibility any Clinton could ever have for their actions, or suffer from full-body BDS, or they would not be Hillary voters. “This won’t help her” — in the literal sense that it is not “a plus” — fine. But harm her? It won’t cost her a single vote.

I use Bill Clinton in my work all the time. My work as a lawyer is in the field of litigation, and I frequently have to help witnesses prepare for their depositions. As part of that preparation, I always tell them this, more or less verbatim:

Don’t even try lying. Who was the best liar in our lifetimes — the world champ? Right, Bill Clinton. He was the greatest. And what happened to him? He got caught, hung up. Almost no one is a good enough liar to keep it going, so if your conscience doesn’t prevent you from lying under oath, at least learn the lesson of Bill Clinton. Just tell the truth.

UPDATE: Looks like there are other ways besides lying to frustrate a lawyer taking your deposition, anyway. Or at least there were.

LATE UPDATE:  Heh.

Posted in Politics and Poker | 6 Comments »

Spirited liveblogging

Posted by Ron Coleman on August 19, 2007

Or, as Vodkapundit puts it, “Debate Drunkblogging.”  I like his take on the only adult Democratic candidate:

I think this was Hillary Clinton’s best performance. Most everything she said struck me as wrong or stupid or both. On the other hand, she finally came across as a tolerable human being.

In vino, veritas.  All the more so in vodka, I guess.

Posted in Politics and Poker | 3 Comments »

Coming up for air

Posted by Ron Coleman on August 18, 2007

The Stout Republican is waiting for Fred Thompson to fish, or cut bait: “[Y]ou’ve toyed with me enough Fred.”

There’ll be more of this. If Fred gets the nomination, I’ll support him over almost anyone I can imagine heading the Democratic ticket. But I can’t take him seriously at this point.

UPDATE:  It’s getting trickier, too.

Posted in Politics and Poker | 5 Comments »

Taking a good point too far

Posted by Ron Coleman on August 10, 2007

Anonymous blogger Let Freedom Ring (via Glenn) does a great job pinning down the weasely awfulness of the despicable Rep. John Murtha, the convenient veteran who condemned two marines involved in the Haditha killings before any but the most preliminary investigation had been made or charges brought. Now that they have been all but cleared, he has no comment. As LFR writes:

Murtha’s staffer is essentially taking an indefensible position because Rep. Murtha has repeatedly made irresponsible and indefensible statements about these Marines. This highlights an obvious double standard on Murtha’s behalf. He didn’t think twice about making these unfounded accusations while the initial NCIS investigation was being conducted but he won’t say a word now when two of the men he accused of cold-blooded murder have been totally exonerated.

Fair enough. It’s a shame that LFR runs off the rails shortly thereafter, however, spreading legal disinformation to wit:

As I’ve stated before, his accusations were made before charges had been filed against any of these Marines is a clear violation of their due process rights. Similarly, he violated their right to a fair trial. To top that off, he attempted to have them presumed guilty instead of giving them the benefit of being presumed innocent.

But there is no due process right not to have a Congressman call you names. There is almost certainly no right to a fair trial violated by that same behavior. And “attempt[ing] to have them presumed guilty” is, similarly, just a silly, meaningless formulation. Congressmen, columnists and bloggers don’t have to presume innocence. Only juries and judges do.

This is a good political point, and so me nice first-hand reporting, by what seems to be a good (and popular) blog. Actually, a terrific one. Not a very good legal point, though. Actually, a very bad one. Maybe that’s why he or she is anonymous. I’d still rather have Let Freedom Ring covering my back than John Murtha, whose name we would just as soon forget.

Posted in Lex scripta, Politics and Poker | Leave a Comment »

War is peace

Posted by Ron Coleman on August 1, 2007

Obama:

“He [President Bush] confuses our mission,” Obama said, then he spread responsibility to lawmakers like Clinton who voted for the invasion. “By refusing to end the war in Iraq, President Bush is giving the terrorists what they really want …”

I mean, some people will say anything, no matter how preposterous. Does this require real analysis to demonstrate its fatuity?

UPDATE:  Actually, I’m coming to understand Obama the Unready‘s foreign policy stragety better and better.

Posted in Politics and Poker, Stragety | 12 Comments »

Al and Fred and Michelle and Rudy

Posted by Ron Coleman on July 31, 2007

I argued last week that Al la Pundit at Hot Air had it in for Rudy Giuliani.  Now he’s responding to the charge that Hot Air is taking pot-shots at Fred Thompson, too, “just to prove he can.”

That certainly earns my “strange new respect.”  My impression had been that, like much of the rightosphere, he was in the tank for Fred and found Rudy unacceptable for his softness on social issues. But Allah says he’s an equal-opportunity slammer; as I said in my previous post, he’s sure no partisan hack.  He’ll slime whichever Republican sticks his neck out (even if he only sticks it out a little, as Fred is doing) for whatever he deems appropriate, writing:

[O]f course we’re not trying to Kos-ify him, not only because we don’t have anything remotely near the power needed to sink any major candidate (and neither does Kos, as Joe Lieberman could tell you) but no one has any reason to want to sink him. He may well be our best shot at winning. But if he’s done something wrong, we’re going to call him on it.

Okay, so as I said, I kind of get this.  He’s being a fair broker, calling them as he sees them, and perhaps even providing a service by defusing anticipated slams from less friendly correspondents — the way lawyers use their own witnesses to testify about their own prior weakness or inconsistency and thereby soften the anticipated blow from an adversary.

But, of course, the “jury” here is mostly on one or the other side of the wall of Good and Evil, unfortunately.  Allah will get no credit whatsoever for his evenhandedness; he works for Michelle Malkin, for heaven’s sake.  (She’s even-handed too.)  So what is he accomplishing?  I’m not sure.  Certainly it’s not his, or Michelle’s, job to parrot anyone’s party line or to be a hack.  On the other hand, there are ways to acknowledge the faults of candidates that are generally acceptable to you — and who you are likely to support in the general election if they are nominated regardless of your qualms — short of calling then demagogues (as Allah did with Rudy last week).

Or is just Hot Air’s policy to be all-belligerent, all the time?  That is, after all, the mode in political blogging, by and large.  But if that’s the game plan, denying that Hot Air is just another Daily Kos (which some conservatives already have, anyway) rings pretty hollow.  Almost, like, demagogic.

Posted in Blogophilia, Politics and Poker | Leave a Comment »

Al can’t get past Rudy

Posted by Ron Coleman on July 26, 2007

I’m not sure what it is about Rudy Giuliani — his relative weakness on social conservative issues?; his personal peccadilloes?; the old comb-over? — that drives my friend Al the Pundit so bananas.  Maybe, like a lot of people, Allah has had a bad experience with a prosecutor.   But Allah just plain has it in for Rudy Giuliani, the official candidate of (social conservative) Likelihood of Success. and the candidate most likely to succeed — Fred Thompson fantasies notwithstanding — against whomever the Democrats cough up in November.

Allah goes with a fine-toothed comb through some fairly generic remarks by Giuliani about the opposition, and calls Rudy out as a “demagogue.”  But you can do this with any politician’s speeches.  I am not conceding the facts; I imagine Rudy could defend himself quite well, as some have done in the comments to the Hot Air post. But these are broad, puffy statements about the other side. To call this “demagoguery” is bordering on the ironic. What gives?

I wonder if Allah will apply the same standard to the GOP’s own candidate in the general election. He’s entitled to, and we all like a square dealer (I like Allah in general, in fact) who isn’t just a party chump. But I can’t say Allah has been all that square on the topic of Rudy Giuliani, because he hasn’t. He can’t stand the guy, and at this point, I’m not so sure he’s got anything particularly useful to add on the topic.  And that’s a shame, considering how good a blogger he is.  It’s a shame for Rudy, that’s for sure, but will others among us also regret it?

UPDATE: Are you “all the way” conservatives quite so sure Fred is the All Being you think he is? Because he’s not.

Posted in Blogophilia, Politics and Poker | 9 Comments »

Playing in the snow

Posted by Ron Coleman on July 24, 2007

snowflake.jpgSnow in Atlanta? Don Surber considers the preposterous You Tube exercise and asks:

What were the Democratic presidential candidates thinking last night? I can see where the ratings-starved CNN would host such a gimmick, but why would anyone who wants to be considered a serious person submit to questions from a snowman? …

The questions did not come from YouTubers. They were selected by CNN from YouTube submissions. … They did not lob softballs at the candidates, they put softballs on a T.

Asking Barack Obama if he “is black enough” is racist and even worse too damned easy.

The real question if whether his blackness has given him a pass throughout his life. Sure, he may not be able to get a cab in New York City, but was the color of his skin also a free ride to Harvard?

Maybe not. I’d love to hear his take on affirmative action.

Don, don’t get too excited. If you don’t think his “take” has already been reduced to a focus-group-approved sound bite, too, you’re watching too much You Tube.

Posted in Medialites, Politics and Poker | Leave a Comment »

It’s a New York thing

Posted by Ron Coleman on July 19, 2007

Glenn links to Michelle, who reports that the Senate has killed a legislative provision granting immunity from lawsuits against members of the public for reporting suspicious behavior that may lead to a terrorist attack — the “John Doe” amendment.

It’s not an obvious policy one way or the other. The possibility for abuse is clear.

But for some reason, according to the reports linked to above the people behind this legislative shift have chosen to obscure their identities. Why?

By the way, if you’re not from around here, here’s the original:

see-something.jpg

It’s kind of ubiquitous in these parts.

UPDATE: More proposed graphics, in the classic mode, from Gateway Pundit.

Posted in Metropolis, Politics and Poker | 10 Comments »