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Arabs to Israel: Assume a can opener

Posted by Ron Coleman on March 29, 2007

A new renewed offer from the Arabs to Israel:

Arab leaders at their summit Thursday agreed on a call for Israel to accept their land-for-peace offer and open direct negotiations with the Arabs. Unlike past summits that at times saw overt feuds break out, the gathering of Arab kings, emirs and presidents showed unusual public unity as it revived the peace offer, which they first made in 2002 only to meet rejection from Israel. . . .U.S. allies Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan hope the smaller groups will be able to be more flexible in promoting the offer to win acceptance, despite the summit’s rejection of changes. . . .

The initiative offers Israel recognition and permanent peace with all Arab countries in return for Israeli withdrawal from lands captured in the 1967 Middle East war. It also calls for setting up a Palestinian state with east Jerusalem as its capital and a “just solution” to the issue of Palestinian refugees forced out of lands in what is now Israel. . . .

Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa rejected amending the peace offer, saying, “They tell us to amend it, but we tell them to accept it first, then we can sit down at the negotiating table.” But he said the Arabs must “do more to convince” the Israelis on the offer.

That’s right: “They tell us to amend it, but we tell them to accept it first, then we can sit down at the negotiating table.”

Does that sound unreasonable to you? That is because you are stuck in your racist, orientalist way of thinking. It is not unreasonable, my friend. Yes, I call you friend! Be my friend while I explain this to you. (Here, hold this bowling ball with a firecracker on top while I explain.)

It isn’t really unreasonable, for one simple reason: Arab states do not consider treaties binding in the first place. They are merely pretexts for the temporary cessation of overt violence.

al-farida_lebanon_pre-1967_war.jpg

So Israel does not have to fear this formulation, my friend. It should accept the offer, then negotiate it, and then learn to swim.

Posted in Orient, Stragety | 9 Comments »

There’ll always be an — oh, never mind

Posted by Ron Coleman on March 28, 2007

Guido Fawkes at Dodgeblogium points out that — absent a humiliating (but, given Blair’s chits with GWB, very likely) military bail-out by the U.S. Navy, the once-dominant Royal Navy does not have much to threaten Iran with (I’ve added a link):

Blair can bluster and posture all he likes, the Iranians will strip our boats (they never ever returned the last lot they seized equally illegally!), beat up our seamen and their RM colleagues and then, after parading them with sham “confessions” on Arab TV, will send them home ignominiously. And Blair and his coterie of luvvies will do exactly nothing about it at all.

What is more, with our fleet reduced to a squadron, and with no strike aircraft and no carriers to call on for air support (shades of the Japanese invasion of Malaya in 1941 and the sinking of HMS Prince of Wales and HMS Repulse!), there is not even the capacity to strengthen our presence in the Shatt al Arap. So much for the infamous Civil Service canard that a single ship is more powerful than an entire fleet. Even the World War 1 Grand Fleet would have had more capacity to intervene against these bandits than the single ship deployed in this disputed waterway – no matter how modern or powerful her weapons are, they are useless if they cannot be fired to annihiliate the enemy. Even the now antiquated guns of HMS Belfast would have been able to lay down a barrage in support of the boats that would have given the Iranians pause for thought, so imagine what several of her class would have been able to offer – including extra boats, arms and men to intervene whenever the Iranians tried a raid. War cannot be fought from the Cabinet Office or Cabinet Room in Whitehall, it has to be left to the man on the ground – and he has to have complete freedom of action in all situations!

Okay, I can’t necessarily sign on to “complete freedom of action in all situations” — but this is just awful for England and, as you can infer from Ian’s remarks, was completely predictable. (What could I have been thinking when I said it could be otherwise?)

It’s also the stickiest of wickets for Tony Blair who is, remember, a liberal who nonetheless went into that dirty bathtub at the side of the U.S. precisely on the premise that England is a major, if second-rank, power that has national interests in that region and can and should do something about them. It cost him a huge chunk of his popular support — which is actually fine and noble; leaders should be prepared to spend political capital to do the right thing for their countries — but now, on the eve of his own “Okay, that’s just about enough leadership” withdrawal — this.

Now what? Can Blair possibly use force (assuming Ian is overstating the dearth of strategic options) when he has no support at all to be there in the first place? Can he not use force and just reinforce the claim that England would only end up weakening, not strengthening, its global position by virtue of engagement in the Mideast? And then, of course, Ian’s point — what force? George Bush’s force? How humiliating and how absolutely politically bitter for Blair, who deserves better, at least morally.

UPDATE: Cap’n Ed puts it in stark terms.

Posted in Orient, Stragety | 2 Comments »

All departments of state are the same, I guess

Posted by Ron Coleman on March 25, 2007

Allah P. writes:

Blair’s talking tough but his foreign ministry people are doing their best to downplay it, going so far as to pretend that the kidnapping is an isolated territorial dispute . . . They nabbed 15 members of the British military one day before a vote on UN sanctions and two days after the AP dropped a bombshell about Mahdi Army involvement with the Revolutionary Guard, and yet the Foreign Office would have us believe that one has nothing to do with the others? Seriously?

Either there’s an exchange program with Foggy Bottom or the spines of the members of England’s “diplomatic corps” are made of the same type of Slinky as ours.

UPDATE: Allah found this, too — evidently these same chaps run the milit’ry as well:

In a dramatic illustration of the different postures adopted by British and US forces working together in Iraq, Lt-Cdr Erik Horner – who has been working alongside the task force to which the 15 captured Britons belonged – said he was “surprised” the British marines and sailors had not been more aggressive. Asked by The Independent whether the men under his command would have fired on the Iranians, he said: “Agreed. Yes. I don’t want to second-guess the British after the fact but our rules of engagement allow a little more latitude. Our boarding team’s training is a little bit more towards self-preservation.”

The executive officer – second-in-command on USS Underwood, the frigate working in the British-controlled task force with HMS Cornwall – said: ” The unique US Navy rules of engagement say we not only have a right to self-defence but also an obligation to self-defence. They [the British] had every right in my mind and every justification to defend themselves rather than allow themselves to be taken. Our reaction was, ‘Why didn’t your guys defend themselves?'”

His comments came as it was reported British intelligence had been warned by the CIA that Iran would seek revenge for the detention of five suspected Iranian intelligence officers in Iraq two months ago but refused to raise threat levels in line with their US counterparts. The capture of the eight sailors and seven marines – including one young mother – will undoubtedly renew accusations that Britain’s determination to maintain a friendly face in the region has left its troops frequently under protected.

Vastly outnumbered and out-gunned, the Royal Navy team from HMS Cornwall were seized on Friday after completing a UN-authorised inspection of a merchant dhow in what they insist were clearly Iraqi waters. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy appeared in half a dozen attack speedboats mounted with machine guns..

Yesterday, the former First Sea Lord, Admiral Sir Alan West, said British rules of engagement were “very much de-escalatory, because we don’t want wars starting … Rather than roaring into action and sinking everything in sight we try to step back and that, of course, is why our chaps were, in effect, able to be captured and taken away.”

Three days after the team were taken hostage, Tony Blair publicly spoke about the diplomatic crisis for the first time. “I hope the Iranian government understands how fundamental an issue this is for us,” he said.

Quite. Look, it is not unreasonable to take a hit from time to time in order to preserve peace and to be in command of how and when you use force. Ronald Reagan did this with the Russkies in the day, and many of us screamed; yet he won the big show.

On the other hand, this is a theater of war. It is a fundamental mistake to introduce troops into a “shoot to wound” situation. Did Iran choose to pick up the Brits knowing they were under orders to play no more than patty-cake? Remember — these limeys were “vastly outnumbered and out-gunned.” Perhaps Teheran merely took a tactical opportunity presented to it. (UPDATE:) Or planned it very carefully.

Either way, bloody bad show.

Posted in Orient, Politics and Poker, Stragety | 4 Comments »

An inch of time

Posted by Ron Coleman on March 21, 2007

Now that you’ve, perhaps, read the next-to-last word, prepare to read the last word on the Iraq war. First read this (sweet) story and this (God-awful) story to put you in the mood.  But that’s the last word whether anyone else’s mouth ever moves again or not. Gerard Van der Leun, who does happen to be something of a not-so-old friend, just wrote the best thing ever about the war. I don’t even know where to excerpt from it, it’s so good. But I’ll try if it there’s any chance it gets one more person to read this essay (emphasis added):

Four years in. An inch of time. Four years in and the foolish and credulous among us yearn to get out. Their feelings require it. The power of their Holy Gospel of “Imagine” compels them. Their overflowing pools of compassion for the enslavers of women, the killers of homosexuals, the beheaders of reporters, and the incinerators of men and women working quietly at their desks, rise and flood their minds until their eyes flow with crocodile tears while their mouths emit slogans made of cardboard. They believe the world is run on wishes and that they will always have three more.

Like savages shambling about some campfire where all there is to eat are a few singed tubers, they paint their faces with the tatterdemalion symbols of a summer long sent down to riot with the worms. They clasp hands and sing songs whose lyrics are ash. “We shall… over… come.” Overcome what, overcome who? Overcome their nation? Is that their dream? It is the lifelong dream of those that lead them that much is certain.

Four years in and we see these old rotting rituals trotted out in the streets like some pagan procession of idols and shibboleths, like some furred and feathered fetish shaken against the sky by hunkering witch-doctors, to hold back the dark, to frighten off the evil spirits and graven images that trouble the sleep of the dreamers.

Four years into the most gentle war ever fought, a war fought on the cheap at every level, a war fought to avoid civilian harm rather than maximize it. Picnic on the grass at Shiloh. Walk the Western Front. Speak to the smoke of Dresden. Kneel down and peek into the ovens of Auschwitz. Sit on the stones near ground zero at Hiroshima and converse with the shadows singed into the wall. Listen to those ghost whisperers of war.

Four years in and the people of the Perfect World ramble through the avenues of Washington, stamping their feet and holding their breath, having their tantrums, and telling all who cannot avoid listening that “War is bad for children and other living things.” They have flowers painted on their cheeks. For emphasis. Just in case you thought that war was good for children and other living things.

There were children and other living things on the planes that flew into the towers. They all went into the fire and the ash just the same. But they, now, are not important. Nor is the message their deaths still send us when we listen. That message is to be silenced. The rising brand new message is “All we are say-ing is give….” And it is always off-key.

Four years in and they are upset that their party of the 90s has been so long interrupted; that their raves are foreshortened; that their sleep is persistently shaken by car bombs beyond the far horizon; that their time at the mall can not be entirely, completely, and utterly without guilt. . . .

Four years in and the fools in the streets multiply. They are tired of the war, but full of themselves. . . .

It is in patience alone that our enemies outstrip us. After all, when you look at what they have made of their “civilization” what indeed do they have to lose?

Posted in O Mores!, Orient, Politics and Poker, Stragety | Leave a Comment »

Defiant, I guess

Posted by Ron Coleman on March 21, 2007

That’s how I am about the Iraq war. So much executed so poorly — perhaps. I’m not even convinced of that; all alternative scenarios posit perfect execution and all the other things 20-20 hindsight makes so magical. Some things, yes, are inexcusable, such as Abu Grab. But it’s absurd to postulate that because soldiers died and Arabs are killing each other, as they’re known to do when there are no Jews around, that the war was “lost” — how can you “lose” when the other side leaves the field and its commander in chief is hanged by the government you put in to power?

But not only that: In concept, I cannot bring myself around to believing it was a mistake. I’m not the only one. Though it is pretty lonely.

The only big mistake was and is the Administration’s poor handling of the marketing of the whole situation, exacerbated by the White House’s unfortunate cronyish style. That’s a huger error, because (as I have said before), you can’t put on a war in a democracy unless you’re prepared to sell it, and follow through with the sale. This government was not prepared for that, and if we didn’t learn that from Vietnam, shame on us.  (UPDATE:  Oy.)

Defiance, however — for that, GWB gets credit. He believes in this policy, and all the conventional wisdom and smirking second guessing in the world have not swayed him. It has cost his party plenty to do the right thing, and at the end of the day I don’t know just how much a good PR strategy would have helped. War is hell, after all. But the right thing, it was, and Bush gets credit here for his defiance of … just about everyone.

Posted in Orient, Politics and Poker, Stragety | 15 Comments »

Resilience watch, done defiantly

Posted by Ron Coleman on March 19, 2007

Insty points to Jules Crittenden, who writes:

The AP’s Stephen R. Hurst proclaims the resilience of Sunni insurgents!

BAGHDAD (AP) – Sunni insurgents, resilient despite the five-week security crackdown in the capital, killed at least six more American troops over the weekend. A Sunni car bomber hit a largely Shiite district in the capital Sunday, killing at least eight people.

I’m getting a warm and fuzzy Pravda kind of feel off that, the ”resilience.” Stalwart insurgents resiliently marching forward! You have to troll the North Korean web to find that kind of thing these days!

I have one thing to add. One key word that Jules forgot to focus on when writing about this kind of writing:

DEFIANT!

You always know the bad guys are losing when the opposition press starts describing them as defiant. Arafat was always defiant. Castro? Señor Desafiante. Not only losers — Iran is always defiant. The little genocidal mullahs that could. As long as they’re on the other side, they’re defiant or, as we see, frequently resilient.

By and large, though, the more defiant they get, the better we’re doing. Even if they’re about to blow their own brains out. Just do tell me when you read an MSM account of meek submission, pathetic surrender or broken acknowledgment of defeat by any enemy of the United States or its allies.

Posted in Medialites, Orient, Stragety | 7 Comments »

Ortega: Fund the Contras

Posted by Ron Coleman on March 15, 2007

Nicaragua’s President Daniel Ortega says the U.S. should pitch in to support some of the former Contra rebels that fought against his Sandinista government in the 1980’s and are now on the down and out.

Ortega claims to be a reformed man, and maybe he is. This positively Lincolnesque gesture — “with malice toward none, with charity to all” — could really be taken as an overture to the U.S. Oh, Noriega is no Lincoln — after all, he’s offering us the opportunity to extend charity, not extending it himself. But his moral claim vis-à-vis the U.S.’s responsibility to the Contras is not insane. Nor is the idea of the U.S. sending a signal that, for a change, it does not always walk away from those who take up arms on its side.

It is certainly possible to construe this as political grandstanding, but (a) that’s what politicians do and (b) the language he is using is so noninflammatory that, coming from a South American leader, it’s positively balmy:

“I would like the U.S. government, President Bush … to take into account the United States’ responsibility in this war during the government of President Reagan,” Ortega said.

“It would be good if the United States contributed at least $300 million to this fund, permitting the construction of housing for these families, that will allow us to give them credits to work the land or set up small businesses,” he told reporters.

Ortega is talking a game of moderation and reconciliation. Just as I said about Hillary Clinton — another socialist pitching to the center — the point is not whether the words are sincere; they are uttered, and doors may be opened, however briefly.

Wouldn’t taking Noriega up on his suggestion (and the donation need not be the amount he says, of course) be a public relations coup for the U.S., and take some wind out of the sails of Venezuela’s hard-line El Payaso?  It sounds like a good investment.

Posted in Politics and Poker, Stragety | 2 Comments »

Russia contains multitudes on strategic defense

Posted by Ron Coleman on March 6, 2007

Containing multitudes

Yahoo! News reports that a top Russian officer claims, “Russia’s bomber force would have no trouble destroying planned US missile defense sites in Europe, its head said Monday as the country’s security council warned of new policies to counter NATO.” The quote:

“Since the components of the anti-missile defence system are weakly protected, all types of our aircraft are capable of using electronic countermeasures against them and physically destroying them,” Interfax news agency quoted Lieutenant General Igor Khvorov as saying.

Well, of course he says that. Strategic defense, and countermeasures to it, are very much a mind game — you know, “strategic”? — and it costs Ivan nothing to put doubt into the minds of policymakers and commanders about the efficacy of a potentially devastating shift in the balance of power.

The funny part is this:

The Kremlin has fiercely protested US plans to install an anti-missile system in Poland and the Czech Republic.

I see. “It doesn’t really work. It doesn’t affect us. Thanks for wasting your money on it. Ha, what suckers. Go ahead. Make my day.

“HOW DARE YOU!”

So given that the “How dare you” is basically an admission that in fact Russia is quite upset about this deployment, and an acknowledgment that it probably affects the strategic balance after all, what exactly is the intended message? It’s the same. They’re just betting that the opposition parties in the U.S., the Democrats and the mainstream press, will do as they did during the Cold War to whoever opposed assertive defense policies: Listen to what our adversaries say and ignore what they do.

A bad bet? Not hardly at all. As things chill up with neo-czarist Russia, expect the deployment of anti-ballistic-missile technology to get more attention. Next chapter: How it harms the children.

UPDATE: And for heaven’s sake, don’t ask anyone in uniform what they think about it.

Posted in Medialites, Stragety | Leave a Comment »