I was so wrong
Posted by Ron Coleman on May 2, 2007
I argued vociferously last year that the spin on how dumb, stupid, idiotic the Israeli prosecution of its foray into Lebanon was wrong. One could second-guess the policy, and inevitably many would; but could the Israelis really be actual idiots? As I wrote:
I’d like to think that the military, political and intelligence leadership is roughly as smart as people who write newspaper columns and blogs. But they don’t have to be. They can also be twice as smart — and fail miserably.
That certainly left me enough wiggle room. But evidently, I didn’t take enough. I was wrong, wrong, wrong. As the Winograd Commission has made clear, the Israeli government did just about everything wrong during Lebanon War II. As Jonathan Rosenblum sums it up:
The report, written in clear, detailed, and biting language, faults Prime Minister Olmert for opting for a large-scale war and declaring ambitious goals without first having received from the IDF a battle plan or evaluating whether those goals could be achieved. The prime minister is portrayed as having rushed ahead without adequate thought, and thereby thrusting Israel into a situation from which it was impossible to extricate itself, without making things even worse. He did not consider adequately the likely Hizbullah missile response and its impact on Israel.
The report’s evaluation of then chief-of-staff Lieutenant-General Dan Halutz is equally damning. He is accused of having failed to present the prime minister and cabinet with alternate plans of action, and of not informing the cabinet of the serious inadequacies in the preparation of the IDF for major combat in southern Lebanon. The only plan presented by Halutz – the first chief-of-staff to have come to the position via the air force – relied almost exclusively on Israel’s superior air power. Halutz was intoxicated with air power, with its capability to deliver great destructive power with little risk of incurring casualties, as the solution to most of the military threats to Israel. Thus he never sought an early mobilization of reserves so that they could be equipped and trained if a major ground operation were required.
The report further charges Halutz with not taking seriously enough warnings of a possible Hizbullah attempt to kidnap Israeli soldiers, and not ensuring that adequate precautions were taken against such an attempt.
Defense Minister Amir Peretz is treated by the report as a complete cipher, who knew or should have
known that he was totally unqualified for the job when he took it, and having made little effort to make himself better informed in the months leading up to the war. “His lack of experience and knowledge,” the report states, “prevented him from challenging in a competent way both the IDF, over which he was in charge,” and from demanding from the IDF the “presentation of serious strategic options for discussion.
And so on.
Every democracy gets the government it deserves, and we have so very little to be proud of on that score these days; but Israel with its wretched and corrupt political system has truly failed its people this time.
The only reasons to hope: There was a Winograd Commission, and its report was not suppressed. We all know how valuable it is to admit when you’re wrong, after all.
UPDATE: Meryl Yourish confirms: It is indeed a moron issue.
Michael Demmons said
Now if we could only get that to happen with the administration in this country.
Ara Rubyan said
Dang.
You beat me to it.
TallDave said
Except Saddam was hung and Nasrallah is celebrating.
Ed.: Dave, unless you know something big about Saddam that we don’t, I think you mean “hanged”!
Ara Rubyan said
Both wars have had disastrous consequences for their respective countries. I can only hope that at least one of them might pull out of their nosedive before it’s too late.
P.S. I think the Iraq war has been bad for the US; but it might have been even worse for Israel.
Scott Kirwin said
Uh, no they haven’t. Neither war has damaged the economies of either Israel or the USA. Nor has the military of either power been left a shambles. Recruitment and morale as shown in high re-enlistment rates remain high in the US military.
I agree with Ron that the war in Lebanon was executed poorly. That does not mean that it should not have been executed at all – which both you, Ara and Mike, seem to think.
How has the Iraq war been a disaster for the USA? We’ve deposed a dictator, attempted to bring freedom to a people that have never known it, and are fighting al-Qaeda on foreign soil rather than in the shopping malls and office complexes of the USA.
The US government has spent $500 billion on wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. During that time the US government has spent of $7 trillion (yearly budgets from 04-07). 3,300 soldiers have died – but were there lives spent in the protection of their nation?
Al-Qaeda has took our bait and decided to fight us in Iraq as opposed to Iowa. I’d rather they fought Marines trained to fight rather than soccer moms.
Just because you call it a disaster doesn’t mean it’s one.
eteraz said
im impressed by israeli self criticism
we could learn a thing or two from them
its not what your opponents think about u that matters; its what u think of yourself.
glenn greenwald said it best:
http://www.salon.com/opinion/greenwald/2007/05/01/israel_war/index.html
Finally, Israel issued this report even knowing that — to invoke the Cheney-ite cliche — it would “embolden the enemy.” Predictably, Hezbollah immediately cited the Commission’s report as “proof” that it won, that Israel lost, and that in light of the report, “no one will take us lightly from now on, especially since we have only gained strength of late.” Israel obviously knew that the report would be exploited by Hezbollah this way, but it issued it anyway.
Casey Tompkins said
Someone is actually quoting the sock-puppeteer as a reliable authority? Will wonders never cease…
Ara: you might have a point if your underlying assumption is true. In other words, you have taken as given that which has yet to be proven.
If (God forbid {g}) that does occur, I will be only too willing to admit that I was wrong, just as Ron has done here.
A good example (for me) would be my defense of Bush 41’s decision not to pursue the Republican Guard into Baghdad back in 1991. Oh, we didn’t want to get tangled up in Mid-East politics I said; it would stir up too much trouble I exclaimed. This was, of course, pre-9/11.
Well, we got the trouble anyway. Might have well gone whole-hog back then.
On the other hand, if 9/11 had still occured, it probably would have been blamed on occupying Iraq back then, instead of the simple fact that maniac terrorists want to return to the 8th century…
ArnoldHarris said
All things considered, it looks increasingly that Ehud Olmert is finished, and Ariel Sharon’s instantly jumped-up political party Kadimha (Forward!) along with him.
I think Binyamin Netanyahu will return to power as the next prime minister, and with him, a more right-center political orientation and a lot less willingness to gamble the future of the State of Israel on the snake-tongued promises of Hamastinians and the exhortations of foreign chancellories whose power-holders never have to live with the results of the chaos they cause abroad.
Arnold Harris
Mount Horeb WI
Bob Miller said
If I remembered any instances of Netanyahu standing up to the USA and EU in security-related matters, I’d be happier about him as the new PM.
Michael Demmons said
unless you know something big about Saddam that we don’t, I think you mean “hanged”!
Funniest thing I’ve read in days! THANK YOU!
Rachel said
why do I get the feeling this is nothing more than armchair quarterbacking that will only get worse? Israel is not exactly supported by the world. In Olmert’s defense (only in tactics) if he openly tried to slaughter Hezbollah, would he have been seen as a hero? No, he would have been seen as a murderous jew. By the world. Also, I think if Israel went whole hog on Lebanon and Syria it would have given the Arab world carte blanche to destroy the nation. And given the world’s dependence on oil we (including the US) would have looked away.
The US is in the same boat. Lots of people would love to see us gone. So both us and Israel have to play nice while the other countries in the world don’t have to.
Olmert deserves criticism, esp. for the treatment of Israeli soldiers. But I don’t think Israel itself knows the consquences of upping the ante.
Ron Coleman said
You’re right in one sense, Rachel: It’s still a fresh wound. You’re also right that the alternative scenarios look great in make-believe land, but you never know how they would have played out. But about the lack of preparation, understanding, expertise… I don’t see how that can be defended.