Likelihood of Success

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Nasty man

Posted by Ron Coleman on April 7, 2009

The Times reports that Mike Bloomberg, the billionaire mayor of New York who has everything, now also has a pretty sleazy — and by all indications, gratuitous — campaign dirty trick to his credit.  It’s push-polling to slime his rival for the mayoralty, Anthony Weiner:

As his campaign sought to overpower any candidate considering challenging him, Mr. Bloomberg commissioned a telephone poll last month that spread derogatory information about Representative Anthony D. Weiner, one of the mayor’s possible rivals in the race.

The calls came around mid-March, even as Mr. Weiner announced he was not certain he would run for mayor.

In interviews, several people who received the telephone calls said that they were told when they picked up the phone that a survey was being conducted, but were soon asked a series of questions featuring negative information about Mr. Weiner.

The questions began benignly enough: Are you registered to vote? Do you plan to vote in the mayoral election? But then they shifted to Mr. Weiner, asking whether the person’s views of Mr. Weiner would be altered if he or she knew of certain problems involving Mr. Weiner, from missing votes in Congress to having difficulty keeping staff to accepting campaign donations from foreign fashion models.

I like Mike, even if he is a bit of a reckless scofflaw.  He’s running for the post of Mayor for Life, of course, and that raises the problem:  We loved Ed Koch, who was — in so many ways — no Mike Bloomberg, and vice-versa.  But that third term… oofah.  That left a mark.

There is something unhealthy about it, as there is regarding any unnatural attachment to state power (via Insty).  Maybe we’re starting to get a preview of what that something might look like for Mike.  All power, all the time.

Posted in Metropolis, Narcissus Rex, O Mores!, Politics and Poker | Leave a Comment »

Preemption doctrine

Posted by Ron Coleman on April 5, 2009

In light of the “where do I go to get my reputation back?” scenario now faced by Ted Stevens (and see here), I wondered where my friend (bloggily speaking) and idol (same) Glenn Reynolds was on this. He was beating the drum for Stevens’s head quite loudly during, after all.

So, here he is:

I DON’T SEE THIS WORKING: “The head of the Alaska Republican Party today called on Sen. Mark Begich to step down from the U.S. Senate, saying that the state’s voters would have re-elected former Sen. Ted Stevens had they known the U.S Department of Justice would abandon its prosecution of him.” They may be right, but if they’d listened to my advice and replaced Ted Stevens before the trial, the question would be moot.

Glenn’s advice was to lose Stevens.  Why?  Above all, because he was clearly corrupt. A crook.  A felon.

How do we know?  Why, these nice young men from the government said so.

It was the right advice, politically.  And it does kind of answer the question.

But am I missing this, or is there something very wrong here?

UPDATE:  The Queen Mary begins that long turn?…

Posted in Lex scripta, O Mores!, Sisyphus | 1 Comment »

Directions to Carnegie Hall

Posted by Ron Coleman on March 24, 2009

Bruce MacEwen comments on my wasted youth by way of recommending Geoff Colvin’s Talent is Overrated:  What Really Separates World-Class Performers from Everybody Else:

This book, based soundly in empirical research, delivers the hard message that true excellence depends upon hours and hours (10,000 hours, to be precise) of “deliberate practice”—be it the young Mozart composing, the young Tiger Woods practicing, or any aspiring concert violinist.  The same, by extension, is true of surgeons, mathematicians, CFO’s—and lawyers and writers.  As Colvin puts it, this is good news Henny Youngmanand bad news:

“What would cause you to do the enormous work necessary to be a top-performing CEO, Wall Street trader, jazz, pianist, courtroom lawyer, or anything else?  Would anything?  The answer depends on your answers to two basic questions:  What do you really want?  And what do you really believe?  [Knowing w]hat you want — really want — is fundamental because deliberate practice is a heavy investment.”

Talent is not just overrated.  It can actually be the single biggest factor militating against achieving excellence there is.

From what I hear.

UPDATE:  Yep, it’s even more true regarding kids (via Insty):

Our society worships talent, and many people assume that possessing superior intelligence or ability—along with confidence in that ability—is a recipe for success. In fact, however, more than 30 years of scientific investigation suggests that an overemphasis on intellect or talent leaves people vulnerable to failure, fearful of challenges and unwilling to remedy their shortcomings.

We all know these types, don’t we?  Bright, bitter bums.

Now, ultimately people are not merely clay in the hands of their environments and genes — they do make choices.  But for much of their early lives, they don’t.  Making good choices later in life can be a challenge when the wrong ones are made for you early on.

Posted in Edumacallit, Heart and spirit, Homo sapiens, O Mores! | 2 Comments »

The luxury of liberalism

Posted by Ron Coleman on March 21, 2009

Evan Sayet, per John Hawkins:

[W]hen you’re young and you’re on the college campuses and you don’t have a job, you’re not paying taxes. You’re not starting a business. You don’t have to worry about environmental policies that are ridiculous.

You’re living on these college campuses where no matter how much you binge drink, no matter how much you projectile vomit, no matter how much you go wild for the cameras in Cancun and strip naked, the next day you wake up on a campus with lush manicured lawns. You wake up in an ivory covered two room mansion. You wake up and somebody else has
bought your food, cooked your food, serves you your food, and when you’re finished, cleans your dishes for you. . . .

Then you have the other side that you mentioned, the celebrities who have been retarded at the age of the child by their fabulous wealth. These are people who never have to recognize right and wrong, better and worse. They don’t have to make decisions in which those have consequences. You know, of course, Bruce Springsteen doesn’t have to choose between putting money away for his retirement or spending it now.  He can spend it now and have hundreds of millions for retirement too.

Susan Sarandon doesn’t have to choose between not getting a new car this year because the rent may go up. She buys lots of houses and lots of new cars. But, []celebrities [are]  isolated from the consequences of their beliefs by their money. This goes to professors as well that are on the left at college campuses. They can’t get fired no matter how bad they are at their job. That isolates them from the need to be smart. It isolates from the need to be right. It isolates from the need to be good.

Well, I guess they have to have been good, or smart, at some point.  And I don’t know if Bruce is that rich.  But by and large I like his point.

Posted in Liberal punks, O Mores! | 2 Comments »

Crime and punishless

Posted by Ron Coleman on March 12, 2009

What exactly do you have to do get put into jail for being a bona fide sex offender in Washington State?

When 13-year-old Alycia Nipp didn’t come home from a trip to Wal-Mart, her family had no idea where she was, but a tracking device was transmitting the location of her alleged killer. . . .

Darrin Sanford, 30, was one of several homeless people living near the field in an abandoned home slated for demolition, police said.

He was convicted in 1998 of communicating with a minor for immoral purposes and luring minors with sexual motivation; he was sentenced to probation, said a Clark County sheriff’s report. When he was released from jail in January, following a November probation violation, Sanford was fitted with a global positioning tracking unit on his ankle, according to the Washington Department of Corrections. . . .

Sanford was wearing the device seven weeks later when he tried to rape Licy before beating and stabbing her in a field a couple of blocks from the street where she lived, according to police.

Great work, Washington justice system.  Maybe when he’s out next year you can give him two ankle bracelets.  No, I’m not being fair:

Sanford violated his probation three times between November 2006 and November 2008, the DOC said. When he was released in January, he was required to check in daily with a probation officer, which he did the day before Licy’s murder and the day after her body was found.

(The day before.)

“Hey, Sanford, you gonna kill any teenage girls tomorrow?”

“No, no, I’m good.  I mean, not unless they laugh at me.”

“Well, don’t try nothing funny, Sanford.  See you tomorrow.”

(Two days later.)

“Hey, Sanford, missed you yesterday.  You kill anybody?  Your ankle bracelet looks okay.”

“Yeah, well, look, I was here the day before yesterday — what was I going to do, kill someone in between then and today?  Gimme a break!”

“Yeah, right, what was I thinking.  But don’t skip tomorrow, Sanford!”

It’s an awful story, and part of it is about a kid who wasn’t nearly scared enough of places and people she should have been scared of.

I don’t think that will be a problem in Clark County for a while.

Posted in Nuvo-Techno, O Mores!, Sisyphus | 2 Comments »

The libertarian moment?

Posted by Ron Coleman on March 11, 2009

Glenn Reynolds points to Reason TV and “Why you’re living in the libertarian moment. ….”

I’ve suggested otherwise more than once, unless by “moment” we mean a passing pulse of time — then, perhaps, that’s about right.

But libertarianism is neither the default position of human affairs, nor, as an all-encompassing program, is it practical, sustainable or moral.  Read my post here and perhaps you will want to engage on this issue.  For even if this is that moment; and even if it is a longer moment than some of us would want, as of right now libertarianism isn’t even getting pushback from the non-evangelical traditional Right.

Well, that’s not right!

Posted in Heart and spirit, Homo sapiens, O Mores!, Oppression, Politics and Poker | 3 Comments »

Remember to show your work!

Posted by Ron Coleman on February 7, 2009

Item:

As far back as 2007, salmonella-laced products were shipped by a Georgia peanut company that knew the peanuts probably were tainted and sometimes after tests confirmed that contamination, inspection records show.

Federal law forbids producing or shipping foods under conditions that could make it harmful to consumers’ health.

For fifty points:  Does this report, if true, make us more skeptical of the claim that the free market leads to safer consumer outcomes?  Or does it makes us more skeptical of the claim that regulation and government leads to safer outcomes?

Do we say that consumers assume — incorrectly — that something wouldn’t even be on the market if it were dangerous, because “the government wouldn’t allow it”?

Or do we say this goes to prove we need a bigger, better FDA, because businesses are overall pretty comfortable with poisoning some percentage of their customers as long as the revenue keeps coming in?

Posted in Gelt, O Mores!, Stragety | 1 Comment »

The $64,000 (before taxes) question

Posted by Ron Coleman on February 3, 2009

Roland Dodds wants to know:  “Do any Democrats pay taxes?”

Well, not the rich ones who are in politics, it appears.  And why should they?  It’s not as if tax evasion is slowing down any of their political careers or anything.

It’s different when you’re on the side of the angels, after all.  Ever see a cat with a halo and a harp trudging over to H&R Block?  I thought not.

UPDATE: It’s a growing refrain.

NEW UPDATE:  Scott Ott reports that they’ve got it figured out now:

Just minutes after two of President Barack Obama’s nominees withdrew today over failure to pay their tax obligations, the president reportedly requested and received from the IRS the official list of wealthy Democrats who have filed accurate tax returns, and whose accounts are paid up. . . .

From now on, the White House said, the nomination process will start with a “white list” from the Internal Revenue Service.

Posted in Gelt, Lex scripta, O Mores!, Politics and Poker | 2 Comments »

Dear John

Posted by Ron Coleman on January 3, 2009

Instapundit:

It’s interesting to me that we see far more anger from Old Media folks aimed at bloggers, etc., than at Craigslist, even though Craigslist has done far more economic harm to the newspaper industry than bloggers, who probably add eyeballs rather than (as Craigslist does) subtracting them.

Very interesting indeed.  Craigslist hasn’t only destroyed conventional classified advertising, which was inevitable — a more natural use of the Internet is hardly conceivable.  It’s probably really done in giveaway papers such as the Village Voice, whose recent layoffs of franchise players indicate nothing so much as the classic death spiral, that lived above all on (increasingly politically incorrect anyway) backpage ads for sleazy “exotic” services.  These supposedly generated $80,000 a month for the Voice in the good times.

For such outfits, the highly publicized “crackdown” at Craigslist is too little, too late.  Too bad.

Posted in Gelt, Medialites, O Mores! | Leave a Comment »

Is comparing apples and oranges better than good analysis?

Posted by Ron Coleman on December 15, 2008

Apparently, Instapundit thinks so:

IS SELLING PEOPLE PORN worse than robbing them? Apparently, the Justice Department thinks so. Perhaps things will be better in this regard under the Obama Administration.

I sure hope not.  After the revolution I expect to still see Glenn online the 46 times a day I check his site.  This is notwithstanding the fact that, despite his considerable talent — and, of course, galactic power over the blogosphere and the personal lives of each and every one of us — he seems to be a sucker for awful comparisons.

A fruit is a fruit.

A fruit is a fruit.

This one is just ridiculous, based entirely on a Reason essay jumping off on the fortuitous juxtaposition  in a newspaper of two different sentences meted out to two different defendants with two different records by two different sovereigns in two different court systems by two different judges at the behest of two different prosecutors enforcing two different pieces of legislation aimed at addressing two different social policies.

Forget all that.  The rotten, crooked cop — who I would argue appears, without respect to any other sentence meted out to any other convict, to have been given a very light sentence — was not punished severely as the pornography seller with a record.

That proves… something!  Bush!  Religious zealot!  Go away!  Shoo!  Shoe!

It’s troubling enough that when it comes to his point of view about the social and policy utility of pornography, Glenn Reynolds throws his considerable analytical skills overboard to make a rhetorical point.  Of at least as much concern is his suggestion that this is a matter solely of political execution:  Not that a Democratic congress, which we have now, will agree with Glenn and weaken or revoke the laws against pornography — which it has been free to do for years — but that a Democratic President should, he suggests, instruct the prosecutors he appoints not to enforce those laws… or at least not without reference to how the local constabulary may be punished by state prosecutors for the sundry crimes its members may commit.

I’ve said this many times in these pixels:  This is not the way to argue in favor of a different policy.  It’s only a way of suggesting that you don’t really have such good arguments.

Posted in O Mores!, Oppression | Leave a Comment »