Likelihood of Success

Ron Coleman’s pretty good blog

Archive for the ‘Gelt’ Category

One whale of a disconnect

Posted by Ron Coleman on February 25, 2010

I’m not someone who wants to see a killer whale killed just because it killed someone.  It’s what killer whales do, and of course Dawn Brancheau, the Seaworld trainer who was killed by an off-kilter orca yesterday, knew that well.  Still and all, there’s something not only circular but disturbing about the reasoning displayed in this AP article about the Seaworld tragedy:

Brancheau’s older sister, Diane Gross, said the trainer would not have wanted anything done to the whale. “She loved the whales like her children. She loved all of them,” said Gross, of Schererville, Ind. “They all had personalities, good days and bad days.”

In a profile in the Orlando Sentinel in 2006, Brancheau acknowledged the dangers, saying: “You can’t put yourself in the water unless you trust them and they trust you.” . . .

Howard Garrett, co-founder and director of the Washington-based nonprofit Orca Network, . . . . said Tilikum was probably agitated before Wednesday’s attack, possibly from some kind of clash with the other whales.

Gary Wilson, a professor at Moorpark College’s exotic animal training program, said it can be difficult to detect when an animal is about to turn on its trainer.

“One of the challenges working with any animal is learning to read its body language and getting a feel for what’s going on in its mind,” he said.

Right.  But here’s the thing:  If Dawn Brancheau wasn’t up to meeting that challenge–she who “loved the whales like her children,” and who knew their personalities, and the fact that they had “good days and bad days”–who is?  She was everything you would expect someone to be who is capable of “learning to read [an orca’s] body language and getting a feel for what’s going on in its mind.”

So is the job of killer whale trainer at Sea World one in which you acknowledge the distinct possibility that you could do everything right but still get killed doing it?  That would not make such a job particularly unusual; millions of people do such work, and have a lot less fun at it than Dawn Brancheau did at her job until the sad day when it stopped very hard at being fun.  And not all such jobs are all that more “serious” than the one that took Brancheau’s life, or as economically productive either.

I’m not so much a “there oughtta be a law guy,” as I said in a recent post where I uncharacteristically said just that.  I don’t think there is a need for a law here, either.  It’ s hard to imagine choosing to risk death so you can do a whale show. But if it’s truly a choice, so be it.  That means, however, that if orca trainers and those like them are going to at least be said to have made their potentially deadly career choices voluntarily, they’ll have to think more clearly than at least the Associated Press wrote in lining up those quotations and leaving the obvious contradiction they raise hanging.

UPDATE:  A tad more rigor at Overlawyered.

Posted in Gelt, Heart and spirit, Medialites | Leave a Comment »

Well, at least we know the stimulus worked!

Posted by Ron Coleman on February 18, 2010

My friend Aziz Poonawalla, via Insty who, interestingly, links to the story guilelessly (I can’t buy a link these days–should I get a turban?), lays it right out:

Today is the one-year anniversary of the landmark stimulus bill which most economists agree has staved off a second Great Depression. The evidence that the stimulus has worked is overwhelming – the New York Times has an in-depth article looking at its actual impact on jobs, and an indispensable graphic showing a timeline of key economic indicators before and after its passage. There’s another beautiful chart based on job loss data from Dec 2007 to Jan 2010 which also makes the impact of the stimulus crystal clear. The recognition of the stimulus’ success isn’t just data-driven – Republican lawmakers who have publicly denounced it for political gain have been quietly and hypocritically scrambling for stimulus money for their districts – as documented by the Wall Street Journal and by the Washington Times.

The only real flaw in the stimulus bill was that it wasn’t big enough . . .

Aziz, Aziz, Aziz.  Where do we start with this?

  • How about the leap from “most economists agree” to the sole source of his authority for this breathtaking proposition–“the New York Times has an in-depth article . . .”  That’s it.  I don’t even have to find economists who don’t agree and with this and try to figure out whether they are or aren’t “most”–Aziz thinks the New York Times is actually a trustworthy source for this preposterous statement.  That actually tells me, in contrast, that the entire remainder of his article is not worthy of reading, because Aziz, who is not an economist, is not making  a serious attempt to objectively see if his central premise is correct.
  • Then there’s the fact that “most economists” didn’t agree what ended the first Great Depression until about 20 years ago (it wasn’t the New Deal, by the way).  The idea that “most economists” would agree “the landmark stimulus bill . . .  has staved off a second Great Depression” –and that they would have nothing to say about a trillion dollar deficit that has resulted–is, to any serious student of economics, truly laughable.
  • And what exactly do “all economists” say?   Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in Faith and Works, Gelt, Medialites | Leave a Comment »

Singing for our suffer

Posted by Ron Coleman on January 26, 2010

And they call economics the “dismal science“!

Posted in Ars Longa, Gelt, Jocularity | Leave a Comment »

There’s no such thing as “underfunded” for our Uncle

Posted by Ron Coleman on January 5, 2010

Kenneth Anderson asks, are underfunded public pensions underfunded public pensions $2 trillion in “stranded” costs?

One question about these obligations is whether taxpayers will stick around to pay them, or instead will vote with their feet. . . . Many of these pension obligations have been incurred by municipalities and others by states, and in some cases the obligations are intertwined. But what happens if voters-taxpayers move out? The assumption has long been that taxpayers are stuck, on account of jobs and other circumstance. But query whether that is necessarily true as the baby boom generation retires.

That’s why the baby boom generation won’t ask us.  This will be will “resolved” by the stroke of a pen — the same moral hazard pen that bails out everything else; and why should state governments be worse than all the other failed states of corporate America?

Federalization, people.  We can run, but we can’t hide.  (Via Insty.)

Posted in Gelt, Politics and Poker, Sisyphus | Leave a Comment »

The wealth in Commonwealth

Posted by Ron Coleman on December 14, 2009

If America — if the people of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts — need anything right this very minute, it’s what? Above the Law answers:

“A public law program will fill a conspicuous gap in the Commonwealth’s public higher education curriculum,” said UMass president Jack Wilson. “It will give our students the public law option that exists in 44 other states… . This is about students and about educational opportunity. It is not about which private law school may face more competition.”

Oh please. This is not about the students. And it’s certainly not about educational opportunity — unless by “opportunity” you mean the invitation to saddle yourself with tens of thousands of dollars of debt in exchange for a degree from an unaccredited law school in the midst of the worst market for legal jobs anybody can remember.

We all know what this is about: money. Lenders have it, the state wants it, the financial future of citizens of the Commonwealth be damned.

Right, mainly.  I mean, no one is making these people go to law school.  It’s not as if there already enough dummies out there with pigskins, and even we geniuses are barely getting by.

Still, though, the crass cynicism is breathtaking, no?

Posted in Edumacallit, Gelt, Politics and Poker | Leave a Comment »

Talkin’ union

Posted by Ron Coleman on October 20, 2009

Mickey Kaus — no fascist — is the best popular commentator critically following what unions — not workers, or even necessarily union workers — are doing to this country, its key industries and its political institutions.

It isn’t pretty.

Posted in Gelt, Sisyphus | Leave a Comment »

The price of health

Posted by Ron Coleman on October 8, 2009

Over at Dean’s World Eric Rall is asking how exactly did the cost of medical care get so expensive beginning in the 1980’s?

I threw out this idea:

I’d say, yeah, an acceleration of the completely predictable outcome of the third-party-payer system, plus vastly enhanced technological capabilities. Thanks in part to the trial lawyers and in part to cultural factors, developing technology and the threat of liability for failure to utilize it made it more or less mandatory for doctors, at least in private practice, to max out on technological solutions — especially in diagnosis — utilizing techniques meant to solve the hardest problems. Also, the “average” medical technique is a lot less average as your population gets older and older and more and more medically complicated.

Makes sense, no?

Posted in Gelt, Scientificus, Sisyphus | Leave a Comment »

Isn’t it Rich

Posted by Ron Coleman on October 4, 2009

Glenn Reynolds:

When you’ve lost Frank Rich, you’ve lost conventional-wisdom punditAmerica.

Not his smoothest phrase ever, but Glenn is right on.  This is a phenomenal departure by the one-time “Butcher of Broadway” from the party line, and an encouraging sign that even for some of the biggest Kool-Aid-guzzlers, there’s hope.

I don’t mean “hope” for major political change, or anything like that.  Come on!

Rather, it’s a sign there’s hope for something once again resembling a remotely honest, tell-it-like-it-is “Fourth Estate” — the very terminology of which makes me think that, in fact, something else is going on here, too:

Obama is toeing what turns out to be the third (or fourth) rail of American journalistic politics:  K Street.

It turns out that PunditAmerica’s jealousy of the ascent of the lobbyist class to the status of de facto branch of government — now more powerful than the mainstream media, whose own former privileges as “owners” of the official truth have been dashed beyond recognition — trumps its class loyalty to a President whose ability to bestow the MSM with specialness has eroded concomitantly.   And that is in all likelihood what is motivating Frank Rich, at least as much as political idealism, to nail his thesis to the cathedral door.

Still and all, good for you, Frank.  And it’s not even a year since Election Day.

Posted in Gelt, Liberal punks, Medialites | Leave a Comment »

Beyond politics

Posted by Ron Coleman on September 16, 2009

That’s what Jon Stewart is, at least — at least regarding ACORN.

My favorite line:  “Your pimp outfit appears to be a fur coat on top of your Andover uniform.”

The Daily Show With Jon Stewart Mon – Thurs 11p / 10c
The Audacity of Hos
www.thedailyshow.com
http://media.mtvnservices.com/mgid:cms:item:comedycentral.com:248916
Daily Show
Full Episodes
Political Humor Healthcare Protests

Even Stewart is mocking that idea that this mere right-wing agitprop. As Glenn Reynolds (who I now see has also embedded this video) says in another post:

And you have to love this: “Robert L. Borosage, co-director of the liberal Campaign for America’s Future, called the tactics used to go after Mr. Jones and Acorn ‘McCarthyite,’ and said the critics were harping on minor failings.”

Yeah, it’s exactly the same. Heck, compared to Joe McCarthy’s famous pimp disguise, this kid’s an amateur.  . . .

Posted in Gelt, Liberal punks, Medialites, Metropolis, O Mores!, Politics and Poker | 2 Comments »

Stop the shell game

Posted by Ron Coleman on September 8, 2009

Scott Ott:

Career politicians use ‘remote-control government’ to accomplish taxation without representation. What can you do about it?

Read his link and then give till it hurts — hurts the trough-feeders!!

Posted in Gelt, Politics and Poker | Leave a Comment »