Likelihood of Success

Ron Coleman’s pretty good blog

Archive for the ‘Scientificus’ Category

Is that a problem?

Posted by Ron Coleman on March 4, 2010

I don’t know much about the “likelihood of success on the merits” part, but I am impressed by the way another traditional element of the injunction question comes out–a little something we call “weighing of harms”:

In various countries, plaintiffs have sought court orders to halt the operation of the Large Hadron Collider at CERN near Geneva, Switzerland, with the most extraordinary of allegations: that the experiment may create a black hole that will devour the Earth.

Up until now, the various lawsuits filed against the LHC have faltered. But if the right kind of claim is filed in the proper court, a judge may soon have to face the question of whether an injunction might be needed to save the world.

That Eric Johnson knows how to get your attention.  Read the whole thing, while you still can!

Posted in Lex scripta, Nuvo-Techno, Scientificus, Sisyphus | Leave a Comment »

And still no one’s doing anything about it!

Posted by Ron Coleman on February 1, 2010

After the delugeInsty:

WALTER RUSSELL MEAD: The Death Of Global Warming. “The movement died from two causes: bad science and bad politics.”

No, there’s a third cause:  Good weather!

Posted in Scientificus | Leave a Comment »

The price of health

Posted by Ron Coleman on October 8, 2009

Over at Dean’s World Eric Rall is asking how exactly did the cost of medical care get so expensive beginning in the 1980’s?

I threw out this idea:

I’d say, yeah, an acceleration of the completely predictable outcome of the third-party-payer system, plus vastly enhanced technological capabilities. Thanks in part to the trial lawyers and in part to cultural factors, developing technology and the threat of liability for failure to utilize it made it more or less mandatory for doctors, at least in private practice, to max out on technological solutions — especially in diagnosis — utilizing techniques meant to solve the hardest problems. Also, the “average” medical technique is a lot less average as your population gets older and older and more and more medically complicated.

Makes sense, no?

Posted in Gelt, Scientificus, Sisyphus | Leave a Comment »

Easy being green?

Posted by Ron Coleman on August 31, 2009

My old friend and colleague John Howley is now the CEO of Davies Energy, a global energy efficiency company.

The picture of sanity

The picture of sanity

I like energy efficiency.

I’m not obsessive about energy efficiency on the petty scale, and I am suspicious of its politicization, but looking all around me I have always been struck by the massive waste of juice out there at every level.

I mention this because I see now that John is also turning his interests toward blogging about energy efficiency.  Okay, so maybe he is a little obsessive about it, but, hey, it’s putting food on the table and probably putting the table under the food, too.  But not only this, I see that his so far lightly-posted blog — JOHN HOWLEY’S GREEN ENERGY— is not only just full of common sense stuff, it’s not insane.

I like not insane.

I hope John (who, really, I always knew was not insane, by virtue of the easy recourse I had to comparison with insane people at the place where we used to work together) posts some more, and maybe that he’ll have some non-insane effect on energy policy around here, and everywhere else.  Am I crazy to think that?

Posted in Futurama, Scientificus | Leave a Comment »

Global warming true after all, just not this globe

Posted by Ron Coleman on August 2, 2009

Pow!

Pow!

Insty:

TRYING TO FIND THE TRUTH BEHIND the Jupiter impact. “Something invaded our solar system and whacked Jupiter, but professional astronomers were looking the other way at the time. Now, as the shock wave slowly subsides, astronomers are working around the clock to find out exactly what hit Jupiter – and why they didn’t see it coming.

Please do.  But meanwhile, Dr. Scientist, please stop demanding more and more of your mathematically honed, rational and flawless control over politics, ethics, economics and the rest of life.

Nothing personal.  Love your work, really.  But if a measure of humility from the “rocket scientists” is in any way one of the results of this cataclysmic impact, then, why, we’ll know exactly why it happened.

Posted in Narcissus Rex, Nuvo-Techno, Scientificus | 3 Comments »

I didn’t make him for you

Posted by Ron Coleman on June 22, 2009

Wired.com says the sky is falling because Apple is, surprise, letting business considerations govern who does and doesn’t get to sell stuff for iPhones, and under what conditions:

Free Press, a group that advocates the idea of an open internet — that is, one in which consumers have the right to browse the web and run internet applications without restrictions — is the latest of several organizations to call out Apple for its inconsistencies. Free Press alleges that Apple crippled SlingPlayer, a TV-streaming application for iPhone, so that it would only work on a Wi-Fi connection; the initial version worked with a 3G cellular network connection as well as Wi-Fi. The SlingPlayer restriction is inconsistent with Apple’s approval of the Major League Baseball application, which provides live-streaming of sports events on both Wi-Fi and 3G connections, the group said.

“That strikes us as odd and potentially nefarious because it really represents a carrier picking and choosing applications for consumers as opposed to letting consumers decide which videos they want to watch,” said Ben Scott, policy director of Free Press. “It’s exactly the sort of thing you’d expect in an internet experience that’s controlled by the carrier.”

Yeah, it’s exactly the sort of thing you’d expect from a business that is in the business of, uh, business.  Instapundit, seizing on the title of this piece, “How Apple and AT&T Are Closing The Mobile Web,” understandably says he “doesn’t like the sound of this” — which, of course, is exactly why that title was chosen.  But it’s okay, Glenn.  It just sounds like free enterprise.  That’s a sound you like almost as much as a puppy in a blender!

The anti-Apple screed segues into a legitimate look about the real technological limits the mobile web is approaching, in terms of network capacity.   But it completely elides the difference between “the Internet” and “the mobile Web” and “what you can put on an iPhone.”  I mean, come on:

“If you’re going to allow video to stream on the 3G network, you can’t pick and choose which video services operate,” Scott said. “You have to let them all operate, otherwise that’s not the internet.”

You “can’t”?  Otherwise, what again?  Oh — “it’s not the Internet.”

What a bunch of babies it is, this “Internet” you speak of, Wired.

Posted in Gelt, Nuvo-Techno, Scientificus | 1 Comment »

Meat me halfway

Posted by Ron Coleman on April 13, 2009

Aaron Morris:

I’ve always considered vegetarianism to be an eating disorder in many. And while I haven’t yet convinced the American Psychiatric Association to include vegetarianism in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM), I now have research to support that vegetarianism is a strong indicator of a possible eating disorder.

Stay with me and I’ll explain.

A recent dietary study was led by nutritionist Ramona Robinson-O’Brien, an assistant professor at the College of Saint Benedict and Saint John’s University in Minnesota. The study concluded that adolescent and young adult vegetarians were four times more likely than their meat-eating peers to binge eat and engage in extreme weight-control measures such as taking laxatives and forcing themselves to vomit. The study further concluded that teenage vegetarians as well as young experimenters — those who try it but abandon it — may be at higher risk for other eating disorders compared with their peers.

The study authors suggest that parents and doctors should be extra vigilant when teens suddenly become vegetarians. Although teens may say they’re trying to protect animals, they may actually be trying to camouflage some unhealthy eating behaviors.

It’s a little lean for my taste  — plenty of non-teens are vegetarians, and some of them are not nut cases, from what I can tell — but I like the cut of his argument.  Well done!

Posted in Heart and spirit, Jocularity, Scientificus | Leave a Comment »

Here comes the sun

Posted by Ron Coleman on April 7, 2009

That’s where the fun is:

The brightest object in the sky will get some religious attention on Wednesday — for the first time since 1981 — when Jews recite Birkat Hachamah, the Blessing of the Sun.

The rare ceremony will mark the time that the Talmud says the sun returns to the spot in the sky where it was created — which happens once every 28 years. In response, groups of Jews will thank “the king of the universe, who re-enacts the work of creation.”

Passaic sunrise.jpg

Amen!

We’ll be up before the crack of dawn around here so we can make this rare blessing — we hope — at the earliest possible moment.  There was some talk earlier on of a consistently cloudy day, but with God’s help it’s looking, well, as if overall the day will be quite a bit sunnier.

Posted in Heart and spirit, Past is prologue, Scientificus | Leave a Comment »

Be the rat

Posted by Ron Coleman on October 17, 2008

Why would you help New York University and participate in the survey below?  Because NYU asked me to ask you, and at this point you and I are pretty close, and I provide you with all this entertainment and you, frankly, owe me.  How that translates to owing NYU is so obvious I’m not going to explain it.

Anyway, a research team from the Psychology Department at New York University, headed by Professor Yaacov Trope and supported by the National Science Foundation, is investigating the cognitive causes of voting behavior, political preferences, and candidate evaluations throughout the course of the 2008 U.S. Presidential election. This stage of the study focuses on the information people use to inform evaluations during the last few weeks before the election. They seek respondents of all political leanings from all over the country (and from the rest of the world) to complete a 15-minute questionnaire, the responses to which will be completely anonymous.  And no one is more anonymous than Likelihood of Success readers, nor — by virtue of their blog reading habits — can they credibly claim to have much else to do.

Here’s the link to the survey.  You can thank me later.

Posted in Scientificus | Leave a Comment »

With happy like that…

Posted by Ron Coleman on September 29, 2008

… we don’t need terrified.  Why is Glenn Reynolds writing this?

SO WHICH WILL TURN OUT TO BE A BIGGER DEAL IN THE LONG TERM? China’s first space walk, or SpaceX’s successful commercial launch test? I’m guessing number two, but I’m happy for both of ’em.

Since when is Instapundit soft on China?  I know they’re running out of places to put people… to pollute… to poison… and to sell weapons to, Glenn, but I’m not giddy or even pleasantly content to seem them getting the hang of outer space.

On the other hand, if they’re already going up there, maybe they can come around to admitting Neil Armstrong’s moon walk was for real?

Posted in Scientificus, Stragety | Leave a Comment »