Likelihood of Success

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Archive for the ‘Stragety’ Category

IDF back in business?

Posted by Ron Coleman on September 18, 2007

Soccer Dad suggests Israel may have gotten its groove back, while a expressing a healthy scepticism about its ability to make proper political and strategic use of its main instrument of leverage.

Posted in Orient, Stragety | 2 Comments »

Let’s keep it entre nous

Posted by Ron Coleman on September 18, 2007

Instapundit cites Cap’n Ed, who notes that the relative lull in “work” at the emergency ward of Baghdad’s Yarmouk Hospital and the high vacancy rate in its morgue is obviously great news, unless you’re on the side of the killers in Iraq.

Ed says, “Oddly, this did not get much play in the American media yesterday.” Well, let’s keep it that way, actually. We absolutely, positively will never win this war against two enemies — the killers, and their fifth column in the international mainstream media. So let’s focus on just the one.

Doing so not only saves resources and avoids disappointment, but it enhances the chance of victory, because every time the U.S. media looks like it might turn more than a degree at a time toward our side, the killers make a special point of doing something reckless, hopeless, tactically worthless, but meant to pull the press back their way.

So let’s just shut up and win, and learn to ignore — as, to his credit, the Commander in Chief has — everyone pulling for victory by the killers.

Posted in Medialites, Stragety | Leave a Comment »

Magic bullet

Posted by Ron Coleman on September 11, 2007

Robert Spencer:

Six years after 9/11, the jihad proceeds apace, and the UN investigates…Islamophobia.

Want to end Islamophobia? End violent attacks committed by Muslims in the name of Islam. I guarantee that Islamophobia will then vanish utterly.

Well, that’s right out.  What’s option number two?

Posted in Orient, Stragety | 27 Comments »

Go team!

Posted by Ron Coleman on September 9, 2007

Glenn snarks, regarding the capitulationist left, “Defeat is not an option! Except, you know, in the war. Where it’s not just an option, but a goal.”

In other words, “Losing isn’t everything — it’s the only thing!”

Posted in Orient, Stragety | 1 Comment »

Practice makes perfect

Posted by Ron Coleman on September 9, 2007

Was that odd Israeli flyover of Syria a practice / probing exercise on the road to Iran?

Intriguing. Hat tip to Hot Air.

UPDATE:  Ooh!

Posted in Orient, Stragety | Leave a Comment »

“Radical Transparency”

Posted by Ron Coleman on September 3, 2007

Erik Schmidt of the Tech LawForum frets about online anonymity in a thoughtful undated article that has just come to my attention, but questions the conclusions in the piece published here where I posit the end of the world due to “assymetric personal warfare.” He writes:

Do the anonymous defamers really hold all the cards online? Sure, like guerrilla fighters, they can blend into the background at will, popping up again later to stir up trouble. But even the most cursory glance at AutoAdmit discussions reveals an abundance of name-calling, random stupidity (”LOL YALE IS TEH GAY!!!”), and insecurity. In examining online defamation, wouldn’t it be useful to inquire as to the reasonableness of giving any credibility to the statements being made?

Assuming the sixteen law firms that didn’t give the Yale grad callbacks actually believed these anonymous statements, I refer them to the words my father told me when I was just a wee lad: “Don’t believe everything you read.” To that I’d add, “especially online.”

A good moral lesson, but what does that do for the non-admitted student?

Schmidt wants to answer as follows, I think: The rational, utility-maximizing 17th law firm follows Old Man Schmidt’s good advice and doesn’t believe what’s written online… does hire the applicant… and does benefit from that decision. In the long run, the other 16 do what they did after generations of not hiring Jewish applicants, and realize other firms are stealing a march on them because of their irrational hiring practices, and start hiring qualified Jews, or in this case qualified victims of anonymous defamation, because it is in their economic interest to do so. A good, invisible-hand, who-needs-the-state answer to irrational discrimination.

Could be. That’s a good answer, Eric. Meanwhile, though, the long run often feels like a place in an economist’s dream. By the time the white-shoe firms started hiring Jews, the Jews had found homes in their “own” law firms, many of which are the most powerful firms in the world today. In New York terms, it was ultimately competitive pressure from the Weil Gotshals and Wachtell Liptons that opened the door for my fellow one-time pariahs at places such as Cravath Swaine & Moore and Davis Polk & Wardwell. That process took nearly a century from the time that Jews started graduating from law schools in numbers.

Now, what’s the analogy for victims of online defamation? Colonies of other fellow Internet fallout victims? Perhaps an answer will reveal itself faster than a 100 years; perhaps not only disease, but remedy, spreads faster in Internet time. Perhaps.

Posted in Blogophilia, Past is prologue, Stragety | 2 Comments »

Not just the fattest

Posted by Ron Coleman on September 2, 2007

Smokestack industries are an odd topic for romance. But, like railroads, no matter how irrelevant they become to a sophisticated national economy, some folks just can’t get them out of their heart. They can’t believe that we can flourish, indeed grow wealthy, if all the heavy stuff is being shipped here in containers instead of being manufactured by our own American brethren. On the left, meanwhile, the evaporation of manufacturing in the US mean the loss of union dues that gofeeding-gargantua.jpg mainly into the coffers of Democratic politicians; thus it is frequently juxtaposed, rhetorically, with the disgusting fact that Murricans use such a shockingly disproportionate ratio of molecules for drivin’, eatin’ and just ol’ livin’.

So what do when the International Labor Organization in Geneva — hey, that’s Europe! The home of the Global Test! — says there’s a darned good reason we consume such a large percentage of the world’s resources: We do a darned good job with it:

American workers stay longer in the office, at the factory or on the farm than their counterparts in Europe and most other rich nations, and they produce more per person over the year.

They also get more done per hour than everyone but the Norwegians, according to a U.N. report released Monday, which said the United States “leads the world in labor productivity.”

And we’re gunning for those Norwegians, too. More:

Only part of the U.S. productivity growth, which has outpaced that of many other developed economies, can be explained by the longer hours Americans are putting in, the ILO said.

The U.S., according to the report, also beats all 27 nations in the European Union, Japan and Switzerland in the amount of wealth created per hour of work a second key measure of productivity.

But where are all the lunchboxes and hardhats? Toxic dirt, industrial maimings and blighted landscapes? How can we be producing so much wealth if the Mexicans are building our cars and the Chinese are building everything else? Well, it’s not so simple. It’s called comparative advantage — the idea is that if everyone does what he does best, everyone benefits from an open system of trade. Both the theory and the facts bear this out. (I wish Laura Ingram would look into this, too, for the next time she has her NAFTA-bashing fraud Jerome Corsi on her show — maybe she can ask him some tough questions and avoid becoming the female Pat Buchanan on trade.) It makes everyone richer in the long run, even if some people have to adjust their expectations and their career paths, and even if millionaires such as Billy Joel and Bruce Springsteen find the plights of displaced factory workers inspiringly heartrending and the plights of foreigners who wouldn’t have jobs without free trade, and families who couldn’t afford union-manufactured goods, irrelevant.

In contrast, history proves that the alternative, high tariffs and protectionism, make all but a few — and, in the long run, pretty much everyone — a lot poorer. On the other hand, that’s good for Bruce and for Jerome Corsi, too — more material. Meanwhile, though, hopefully they’ll noisily fume, generating wealth in the process for themselves and others, and we’ll all keep being more productive, more free. Perhaps we’ll watch our appetites a bit, too, if only as a matter of dignity, taste and healthful habits.

Posted in Gelt, Stragety | 2 Comments »

No free ride for the Bear

Posted by Ron Coleman on August 22, 2007

This is cool.  Good show!  (See earlier post on resurgent brunoism).

Posted in Euroids, Stragety | Leave a Comment »

What’s going on with da money

Posted by Ron Coleman on August 21, 2007

Chicago Boyz (who else?) brings us “Brian Wesbury’s Definitive Take on the Subprime Crisis”:

The interaction of an uncertain regulatory and tax environment with a highly leveraged, illiquid market for risky mortgage debt creates conditions that look just like an economy-wide liquidity crisis. But it’s not. A few rate cuts will not help.What can help is more certainty. Tax cuts, or at least a promise not to raise taxes, and immunity — or at least a safe harbor from criminal prosecution for above-board institutions in the mortgage business — could help loosen up a rigid market in a more permanent way than sending out the helicopters to dump cash in the marketplace.

The best the Fed can do is to stand at the ready to contain the damage. In this vein, their decision to cut the discount rate and allow a broad list of assets to be used as collateral for loans to banks, was a brilliant maneuver. It increases confidence that the Fed has liquidity at the ready, but does not create more inflationary pressures. It was a helping hand, not a bailout.

Yeah. Like I said!

Posted in Gelt, Stragety | Leave a Comment »

No sanctuary

Posted by Ron Coleman on August 17, 2007

AP:  “US troops fight militants in Iraq mosque.”

It’s true what they say:  General Petraeus seems committed in fighting to win.

Posted in Orient, Stragety | 1 Comment »