Likelihood of Success

Ron Coleman’s pretty good blog

Realism from The Economist

Posted by Ron Coleman on September 19, 2007

Blame is one thing; policymaking is another. The Economist recognizes, in its cover story, what the antiwar crowd will not: The wisdom of the choice to go to war with Saddam Hussein is only slightly related to the question of what policy to pursue now:

If the case for staying depended on extrapolating from the modest gains the general claims for his surge, it would be a weak one. The strong case is that if America leaves, things will get even worse. This can only be a guess, but it is more plausible than the alternative guess that America’s going will nudge Iraq in the right direction. In the past two years, violence has tended to decline where American troops are present and to rise in the places they leave. There is no doubt that some Shia militias want to rid Baghdad of its Sunnis and that American troops are for now the only thing stopping them. Contrary to what foreigners think, most Iraqis say they oppose partition: in the BBC/ABC poll, 62% said Iraq should have a unified government and 98% said it would be a bad thing for the country to separate on sectarian lines. . . .

If America could choose again, it would not step into a civil war in Mesopotamia. But there are worse reasons than preventing a bloodbath for a superpower to put its soldiers at risk. Having invaded Iraq in its own interest—to remove mass-killing weapons that turned out not to exist—America owes something to Iraq’s people, a slim majority of whom want it to stay. It is hard to know how Iraq can be mended. At some point it may become clear the country has sunk so low it is simply beyond saving. But it is not possible to be sure of that yet.

For a bunch of Europeans, that’s pretty good.

Posted in Euroids, Orient, Stragety | 5 Comments »

Kent State ’07

Posted by Ron Coleman on September 19, 2007

The shock of the Tasergate doesn’t wear off. Man.

Althouse‘s “Meade” brings it:

Campus police and Bushhitler coming
We’re finally on our own
This summer we felt the horrific harbinger
One tased in Florida

Gotta get down to it
Shutting our microphones down
Shoulda been done long ago

What if you knew him and
found him tased on the ground?
How can you run
when you know it’s an iconic turning point?

America’s most self-important, self-satisfied generation begets America’s most trivial.

First tragedy, then farce, right?

Posted in Americana, Oppression, Past is prologue | 1 Comment »

Bulldozer’s progress redux

Posted by Ron Coleman on September 19, 2007

I wrote on Overlawyered about the outrageous, morally vacuous position taken in the suit by the family of suicide protestor Rachel Corrie by the “great mind” Erwin Chemerinsky, who was recently hired, un-hired, and then re-hired by UC-Irvine. The law professoriat was outraged across the spectrum, kind of, and seeing as how that represents 65% of the major blogs, there was nothing to talk about.

I had no pity for the man; he is a moral reprobate, in my book, and not fit to teach young mush-filled minds. I don’t care how high his LSAT’s were or how brilliant a legal mind his is in the abstract; he cannot see the moral forest for the trees. The suggestion that the right should come to his defense, as it largely did, to show how even-handed it is regarding academic freedom sounds great. But as usual conservatives and libertarians show up to a “bipartisan” free-speech party that oddly becomes quite pooped when the time comes to secure justice for victims of leftist witch-hunting. Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in Oppression, Sisyphus | 1 Comment »

IDF back in business?

Posted by Ron Coleman on September 18, 2007

Soccer Dad suggests Israel may have gotten its groove back, while a expressing a healthy scepticism about its ability to make proper political and strategic use of its main instrument of leverage.

Posted in Orient, Stragety | 2 Comments »

Let’s keep it entre nous

Posted by Ron Coleman on September 18, 2007

Instapundit cites Cap’n Ed, who notes that the relative lull in “work” at the emergency ward of Baghdad’s Yarmouk Hospital and the high vacancy rate in its morgue is obviously great news, unless you’re on the side of the killers in Iraq.

Ed says, “Oddly, this did not get much play in the American media yesterday.” Well, let’s keep it that way, actually. We absolutely, positively will never win this war against two enemies — the killers, and their fifth column in the international mainstream media. So let’s focus on just the one.

Doing so not only saves resources and avoids disappointment, but it enhances the chance of victory, because every time the U.S. media looks like it might turn more than a degree at a time toward our side, the killers make a special point of doing something reckless, hopeless, tactically worthless, but meant to pull the press back their way.

So let’s just shut up and win, and learn to ignore — as, to his credit, the Commander in Chief has — everyone pulling for victory by the killers.

Posted in Medialites, Stragety | Leave a Comment »

Gonzales missed one

Posted by Ron Coleman on September 18, 2007

Above The Law carries a stomach-turning story about one of the U.S. Attorneys that wasn’t fired.

Posted in Lex scripta, Sisyphus | 2 Comments »

Where do they keep him? An aircraft hangar?

Posted by Ron Coleman on September 17, 2007

“Heh,” as they say.  Politico.com:

After winning the exhaustively-titled “outstanding creative achievement for an interactive television program or series” award for his youth-oriented cable network Current TV, former vice president and current non-candidate de celeb Al Gore is now officially a kept man.At the 59th Annual Emmy Awards, which aired live last night on Fox, Gore’s none-too-secret love affair with Hollywood became almost farcical in its total disregard of discretion, or even decorum.

Next you’ll tell me they’ve put that new Stalin movie by Oliver Stone on hold.

Posted in Americana, Medialites | 9 Comments »

Corn country

Posted by Ron Coleman on September 17, 2007

The AP has a story about the late Honorable Gerald Ford’s face, cut into the corn.

Each year, Gull Meadow Farms near Richland[, Michigan] cuts a maze in its corn fields. A company that specializes in corn maze design drew up the plans for the Ford portrait, which says PRESIDENT FORD across the top and THANKS below.

“Instead of just creating a path for people to travel through, we decided to make it a tribute to the late President Ford,” said Justin Wendzel, a spokesman for the farm.

I find this very touching.  Jerry Ford didn’t inspire a lot of passion in hardly anyone, and probably, as a personal matter, didn’t inspire all that much in anyone at Gull Meadow Farm.  But the idea that a good man can execute public service honorably, and be the head of state of a great country, is — still, to some people — reason enough to honor him, in one’s own way, upon his passing.

Very touching and, of course, perfectly corny. 

Posted in Americana | 1 Comment »

Hot Air keeps gunning for Rudy

Posted by Ron Coleman on September 16, 2007

Rudy does something very right … everyone in the rightosphere high-fives him … that can mean only one thing:

Al the Pundit slams Rudy for being an effective political battler — again. It’s pretty clear that Allah is far beyond being a fair broker on Giuliani: He can’t stand him. But is it Anonymous Al, or is he carrying water for Michelle Malkin? If so, what’s the back story here? I haven’t the slightest idea, but it’s not funny.

(Hat tip to the permalinkless Hotline.)

By the way, this article in The New Yorker is the gold standard on Rudy Giuliani. And it is no puff piece. Yet he is my candidate. Because in terms of New York, not post-9/11, but post something truly more destructive — the Dinkins Administration — I was there.

Posted in Blogophilia, Medialites, Politics and Poker | 18 Comments »

Ripples of the Holocaust

Posted by Ron Coleman on September 16, 2007

“A Holocaust mystery finds some answers.”

This story doesn’t require any commentary, but you may have missed it.

Posted in Oppression, Past is prologue | Leave a Comment »