Likelihood of Success

Ron Coleman’s pretty good blog

Al can’t get past Rudy

Posted by Ron Coleman on July 26, 2007

I’m not sure what it is about Rudy Giuliani — his relative weakness on social conservative issues?; his personal peccadilloes?; the old comb-over? — that drives my friend Al the Pundit so bananas.  Maybe, like a lot of people, Allah has had a bad experience with a prosecutor.   But Allah just plain has it in for Rudy Giuliani, the official candidate of (social conservative) Likelihood of Success. and the candidate most likely to succeed — Fred Thompson fantasies notwithstanding — against whomever the Democrats cough up in November.

Allah goes with a fine-toothed comb through some fairly generic remarks by Giuliani about the opposition, and calls Rudy out as a “demagogue.”  But you can do this with any politician’s speeches.  I am not conceding the facts; I imagine Rudy could defend himself quite well, as some have done in the comments to the Hot Air post. But these are broad, puffy statements about the other side. To call this “demagoguery” is bordering on the ironic. What gives?

I wonder if Allah will apply the same standard to the GOP’s own candidate in the general election. He’s entitled to, and we all like a square dealer (I like Allah in general, in fact) who isn’t just a party chump. But I can’t say Allah has been all that square on the topic of Rudy Giuliani, because he hasn’t. He can’t stand the guy, and at this point, I’m not so sure he’s got anything particularly useful to add on the topic.  And that’s a shame, considering how good a blogger he is.  It’s a shame for Rudy, that’s for sure, but will others among us also regret it?

UPDATE: Are you “all the way” conservatives quite so sure Fred is the All Being you think he is? Because he’s not.

Posted in Blogophilia, Politics and Poker | 9 Comments »

Secret cosmonaut tapes?

Posted by Ron Coleman on July 26, 2007

Could it be? A little creepy to consider. Of course, we don’t speak Russian around here. These could be tapes of the Pinsk school board.

UPDATE:  On the other hand, I guess we should be pretty glad — in retrospect — that they weren’t able to tune in our guys.

Posted in Jocularity | 1 Comment »

Arab League on the road

Posted by Ron Coleman on July 25, 2007

The Arab League is visiting Israel with its unworkable plan. But am I stupid for thinking this is a positive development?

And is it possible that Muslim extremism is at least one of the motivating factors, entirely contrary to what one would think?

I’d like to know John Burgess‘s view.

Posted in Orient | 3 Comments »

Addiction, disease and choice

Posted by Ron Coleman on July 25, 2007

Sally Satel, a psychiatrist, and Scott Lilienfeld, a psychologist, writing in Slate, push back on the politically-correct concept of addiction as a kind of mental boo-boo. Long quote here:

A new bill sponsored by Sen. Joe Biden, D-Del., would change the name of the National Institute on Drug Abuse to the National Institute on Diseases of Addiction and change the name of the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism to the National Institute on Alcohol Disorders and Health. Called the Recognizing Addiction As a Disease Act of 2007, it explains, “The pejorative term ‘abuse’ used in connection with diseases of addiction has the adverse effect of increasing social stigma and personal shame, both of which are so often barriers to an individual’s decision to seek treatment.” Addiction should be known as a brain disease, the bill proclaims, “because drugs change the brain’s structure and manner in which it functions. These brain changes can be long lasting, and can lead to the harmful behaviors seen in people who abuse drugs.”

As a psychiatrist who treats heroin addicts and a psychologist long interested in the philosophical meaning of disease, we have chafed at the “brain disease” rhetoric since it was first promulgated by NIDA in 1995. Granted, the rationale behind it is well-intentioned. Nevertheless, we believe that the brain disease concept is bad for the public’s mental health literacy.Characterizing addiction as a brain disease misappropriates language more properly used to describe conditions such as multiple sclerosis or schizophrenia—afflictions that are neither brought on by sufferers themselves nor modifiable by their desire to be well. Also, the brain disease rhetoric is fatalistic, implying that users can never fully free themselves of their drug or alcohol problems. Finally, and most important, it threatens to obscure the vast role personal agency plays in perpetuating the cycle of use and relapse to drugs and alcohol.

“Personal agency” is what the rest of us call “personal responsbility.” And believe me, I do not write this as a scold (that was the previous post). I am not an “addict” of anything in particular (surely chocolate does not count!) but I do understand human weakness. For this reason I have always been skeptical of the idea that really, really wanting something so bad “it hurts” is a “disease” any more than the human condition — and the temptation and sin that accompanies it for most people — is a disease.

Even when you’re talking about, say, heroin? According to the widely-published and -quoted Theodore Dalrymple, yes. I believe my first exposure to his writing on this topic was in this Wall Street Journal column:

Heroin doesn’t hook people; rather, people hook heroin. It is quite untrue that withdrawal from heroin or other opiates is a serious business, so serious that it would justify or at least mitigate the commission of crimes such as mugging. Withdrawal effects from opiates are trivial, medically speaking (unlike those from alcohol, barbiturates or even, on occasion, benzodiazepines such as valium), and experiment demonstrates that they are largely, though not entirely, psychological in origin. Lurid descriptions in books and depictions in films exaggerate them à la De Quincey (and also Coleridge, who was a chronic self-dramatizer).

I have witnessed thousands of addicts withdraw; and, notwithstanding the histrionic displays of suffering, provoked by the presence of someone in a position to prescribe substitute opiates, and which cease when that person is no longer present, I have never had any reason to fear for their safety from the effects of withdrawal. It is well known that addicts present themselves differently according to whether they are speaking to doctors or fellow addicts. In front of doctors, they will emphasize their suffering; but among themselves, they will talk about where to get the best and cheapest heroin.

Now from this, thank God, I know nothing. But if you can make headway in the culture with the argument that not even a junkie is a victim of the “disease” of addiction, perhaps next we can dispense of the “disease” of alcoholism. And maybe eventually “personal agency” gets somewhere closer to the driver’s seat. Not because we want to punish, and not because there is no role for “brain juice” in behavior.  Clearly there is.  But because looking away from the truth only makes the problem harder to solve for all concerned.

Posted in O Mores! | 5 Comments »

The only policy

Posted by Ron Coleman on July 25, 2007

Captain Ed explains why for the BBC — no less than, and perhaps considerably more than, any other organization — honesty is the only policy.

Posted in Medialites, O Mores! | Leave a Comment »

Sartorial meltdown

Posted by Ron Coleman on July 25, 2007

Another reason for contempt of Congress: They’re slobs, coming onto the house floor in beach wear and athletic jerseys. How far we have fallen (hat tip for that link to this fascinating blog; check out this, too). It is the Victorian in me, I know, but I am comfortable with that.

Not with this, though. It is contemptible, but entirely appropriate considering the contempt they have not only for each other, but the people they represent. It is a parliament à la Lord of the Flies. How soon can we be rid of the lot of them?

jackson.jpg

UPDATE: The rump Administration insists that staffers cover theirs.  And typically thorough thoughtfulness on the issue from Classical Values.

Posted in O Mores!, Style | 22 Comments »

Chickens, roosting and all that jazz

Posted by Ron Coleman on July 24, 2007

Ward Churchill has been canned because, according to the University of Colorado, his academic work was riddled with fraud. By all indications, no one cared until he compared the victims of 9/11 to Adolf Eichmann; but that fact should hardly insulate him for the academic crimes he did commit. Nor does that obvious statement mean his lawyer will not say the exact opposite, blaming The Man and his Oppression for dislodging his crooked mediocrity of a client.
And a perfect lawyer he is: We’re talking about one ACLU Special, David Lane (no, not this David Lane). Lane already threatened litigation over this slow-motion firing, which is hardly a surprise. For all his rhetoric, Lane — in interview after statement — resolutely avoids doing one minor thing: Actually rebutting the academic fraud charges in any way. Having neither the facts nor the law on his side, he will burden the taxpayers of Colorado by putting on a show of striking the table that will never end. Meanwhile, Churchill is probably set for life lecturing on the Moonbat Circuit.

Which, of course, raises a thought: As of tonight, there are no reports that Churchill, or his lawyer, had been dragged off to a concentration camp, subjected to torture or simply put down with a bullet to the neck. Based on that, Churchill’s glee that 3,000 “Little Eichmanns” were killed on 9/11 must be redoubled with his realization that that was all the Eichmanns there were. Incredible coincidence.

UPDATE:   More, much more, from NRO (via Glenn).

Posted in Oppression | 7 Comments »

Tuning in the tinfoil

Posted by Ron Coleman on July 24, 2007

The Stout Republican quotes Cindy Sheehan:

The Democrats are the party of slavery and were the party that started every war in the 20th century, except the other Bush debacle. The Federal Reserve, permanent federal income taxes, not one but two World Wars, Japanese concentration camps, and not one but two atom bombs dropped on the innocent citizens of Japan — all brought to us via the Democrats.

Yes…we know this, but nut butter Cindy Sheehan is attracting the ire of Democrats everywhere, because she doesn’t like them anymore. Now she’s a crazy. I assert that she always was a crazy, but as Maureen Dowd said about Miss Sheehan:

“The moral authority of parents who bury children killed in Iraq is absolute.”

So…I suppose that Maureen Down is going to applaud at the sidelines as Sheehan speaks truth to power.

Yes, that will be interesting. I trust this tough question will be asked of all the Dem candidates at the next You Tube debate.

Posted in Medialites | 2 Comments »

Playing in the snow

Posted by Ron Coleman on July 24, 2007

snowflake.jpgSnow in Atlanta? Don Surber considers the preposterous You Tube exercise and asks:

What were the Democratic presidential candidates thinking last night? I can see where the ratings-starved CNN would host such a gimmick, but why would anyone who wants to be considered a serious person submit to questions from a snowman? …

The questions did not come from YouTubers. They were selected by CNN from YouTube submissions. … They did not lob softballs at the candidates, they put softballs on a T.

Asking Barack Obama if he “is black enough” is racist and even worse too damned easy.

The real question if whether his blackness has given him a pass throughout his life. Sure, he may not be able to get a cab in New York City, but was the color of his skin also a free ride to Harvard?

Maybe not. I’d love to hear his take on affirmative action.

Don, don’t get too excited. If you don’t think his “take” has already been reduced to a focus-group-approved sound bite, too, you’re watching too much You Tube.

Posted in Medialites, Politics and Poker | Leave a Comment »

Muslims stop reading the papers

Posted by Ron Coleman on July 24, 2007

No Israeli believes Muslims are stupid. But the myth of an endless appetite for reckless suicide bombing, regardless of its tactical inefficacy, lives on in the West. Are Muslims getting tired of the self-inflicted bloodshed, though?

It hardly seems conceivable. The left promised us that anything short of asking, “Please sir, may I have another?” after 9/11 would result in non-stop terrorist attacks in the U.S., and was wrong. The same people has guaranteed us that the “desperate” and “motivated” Muslim “insurgent” would never tire of blowing himself up until the Great Satan quit the field in the Mideast. We were told that this trend would only continue the more intensively we brought the battle to the bad guys. The harder we pressed these diamonds of humanity, we were told, the harder they got, and the brighter shone their hero, Osama bin-Laden.

So what are we to make of this?:

Muslims around the world increasingly reject suicide bombings and other violence against civilians in defense of Islam, according to a new international poll dealing with how the world’s population judges their lives, countries and national institutions.A wide ranging survey of international attitudes in 47 countries by the Pew Research Center also reported that in many of the countries where support for suicide attacks has declined, there has also has been decreasing support for al-Qaida leader Osama bin-Laden.

This is great news, right? Fewer suicide bombings (except the really good kind) is good for everyone. Of course, Bin-Laden’s lack of popularity may be connected to the fact that he’s completely dead. Even in Iraq, the bombing is growing old, as this post linked to by Instapundit today makes clear:

U.S. tactics and training have made enemy efforts much less lethal. This has helped demoralize an increasing number of terrorists. Many are tired of killing Iraqi civilians, and the increasing difficulty at getting at American troops. … This has been going on for years, and an increasing number of Iraqi fighters are demoralized and quitting. Many either become informers, or surrender and speak freely.

Muslims are not stupid. They invented numbers, after all. Suicide bombings are simply a diminishing-returns proposition. Why didn’t someone tell those who were so gloriously blowing up buses and pizza shops five years ago that diminishing returns, high concrete walls and the suboptimal tactic of intending to die might not make them the vanguard of social change the papers said they would be? And will they do so now?

Of course not. It flies in the face of the antiwar mantra. The Iraq and Afghanistan wars, much less the West Bank wall and the present troop surge in Iraq, were supposed to only enrage, forever, the people of the rage, who the media told us was infinitely capable of self-destructive behavior. Indeed, celebration of this bloodlust by the media was a factor in all this senseless murder. I wonder if its perpetrators, and the culture that bought into this myth, will ask Reuters, the BBC, the Associated Press the New York Times and the rest for their money, and their wasted blood, back.

It’s not over, of course. Suicide murder has not stopped. It is still not a good situation if only one percent of a billion people are prepared to blow themselves up as long as they take a piece of you, too; and we’re still way above one percent.

But this trend certainly seems contrary to what we were promised by the policy experts, the mainstream press, and the political left. Now what? Well, they can count on the Democrats in the Congress, for whom our enemies (whether it is the USSR or Al Qaeda) are always winning and it is always hopeless for democracy to fight back. That works fine when “winning” (other than winning political power) is not your goal anyway.

UPDATE: More analysis from Hot Air.

Posted in Orient, Stragety | 9 Comments »