Likelihood of Success

Ron Coleman’s pretty good blog

Through a glass, darkly

Posted by Ron Coleman on February 14, 2009

Instapundit:

TRANSPARENCY: An “Off-the-Record speech” at the National Press Club? It’s a tribute to Dr. Strangelove: “You can’t do reporting here! This is the press club!”

Well, I followed the link and I was pretty confused.  Isn’t the National Press Club’s most famous event — the Gridiron Dinner — famously “off the record,” at least “on the record”? [“Reporting” fail!  Ironic, yeah.  See comments. — RDC]  What’s the big deal here?  I eventually figured it out, though, and the below is a comment I left at the linked-to story at the Knoxville News Sentinel.

I wish the blog reporting on this issue were a little more clear here, actually. Lots of events involving reporters and people involved in media are off the record, including events of the National Press Club. So the way this was reported, and the comments here, don’t really add up. There’s nothing inherently offensive about that; in fact, a lot of good can come from people being able to talk off the record from time to time.

This really is a story, however, and it really is a problem — although you wouldn’t know it to read this item, or Instapundit’s. Here’s an excerpt from Donna Leinwand letter that, first, sets up the procedural issue:

As you know, the National Press Club is hosting but not sponsoring this event. Georgetown University’s School of Continuing Studies is renting a room at the Club for the conference. As such, it is the prerogative of Georgetown, Mr. Plouffe and your bureau to impose whatever ground rules you prefer for his remarks.

Right. It’s their ball. She goes on in her letter to complain, along the lines of commenters here, about the hypocrisy, etc., which is all well and good. It’s true, but it’s dog bites man, you know? But to my mind, the pointy edge of this story is this:

Plouffe, who has been on the speaking circuit promoting his forthcoming book, “The Audacity to Win”, was the keynote speaker on Thursday at a public policy luncheon sponsored by Georgetown University and Politico. Every event at the two-day program had been promoted as open to media coverage, but Georgetown on Wednesday told media representatives that Plouffe’s speech would be off the record.

Both quotes are from here.

Now you can understand the problem. It was a bait and switch whereby not only attendees but even sponsors were told, a day before the speech and after people had taken the trouble to set up the event, promote it, get access to it, travel to it, etc., that no less than the keynote speaker himself was changing the ground rules. That’s dirty pool, and that is what elevates this story from more media- enabled media-evasion (for is this administration not to be a replay of Camelot, without of course the unhappy ending?) to a particularly cynical and nasty show of arrogance.

Posted in Medialites, Politics and Poker | 2 Comments »

Waiting for the end of the world

Posted by Ron Coleman on February 12, 2009

duerer-apocalypseA blog called Zero Hedge says “the world almost came to an end” last September — and we’re hearing about it just now:

LiveLeak has caught a scary moment of previously undisclosed insight by Paul Kanjorski where he reveals some facts that have not been captured by the media previously. At 2 minutes and 20 seconds in the video below, Democratic Representative Kanjorski explains how the Federal Reserve told Congress members about a “tremendous draw-down of money market accounts in the United States, to the tune of $550 billion dollars.” According to Kanjorski, this electronic transfer occurred over the period of an hour or two. And it gets worse. Kanjorski paraphrases the following disclosure by Bernanke and Paulson:

On Thursday (Sept 18), at 11am the Federal Reserve noticed a tremendous draw-down of money market accounts in the U.S., to the tune of $550 billion was being drawn out in the matter of an hour or two. The Treasury opened up its window to help and pumped a $105 billion in the system and quickly realized that they could not stem the tide. We were having an electronic run on the banks. They decided to close the operation, close down the money accounts and announce a guarantee of $250,000 per account so there wouldn’t be further panic out there.

Urk.  Well, I guess that did work, after all.  But all in all, it’s surprising that The End didn’t really come then, or around then, or before now, at least not in the form of a run on financial institutions, for the simple reason that a who-o-o-o-o-ole bunch of money that used to be there no longer was, or shortly would no longer… be.  As in “no longer be.” Concludes blogger Tyler Durden:

Interestingly, Kanjorski, and likely more and more Democrats, are starting to shift to the camp that more time is needed to make a correct decision this time (which may explain Geithner’s decision to postpone the “bank-rescue” announcement by one day to Tuesday), instead of rushing into another half-baked plan. Very scary stuff.

Too much leverage, folks — in a lot of ways.  Hat tip to stock market maven Jerry Coleman, my dad.

Posted in Gelt, Nuvo-Techno, Stragety | Leave a Comment »

It’s good to be the King of All Media

Posted by Ron Coleman on February 11, 2009

Howard Stern made hundreds of millions of dollars to “legitimize” Sirius satellite radio.  If you ever wondered how such numbers could be justified as a business matter, well, guess what — they couldn’t.  At least not with that business’s own money:

Sirius XM, which never turned a profit when both companies were independent, is laden with $3.25 billion in debt. Its business model has been dependent, in part, on the ability to roll over its enormous debts — used to finance sending satellites into space and attract talent like Mr. Stern (who was paid $100 million a year) — at low rates for the foreseeable future until it could turn a profit. . . .

Sirius XM owes about $175 million in debt payments at the end of February that it is unlikely to be able to pay.

$100 million for Stern.  Of course that can’t be justified, unless the only risk being taken is taken by someone else. Like a bank.

And, of course, that bank isn’t really risking all that much. If it fails, or threatens to, why Uncle Sam will just bail it out, right?

Guess who’s $100 million that ends up being?

UPDATE:  “I remember my dad looking at the stocks a few years ago and saying that Sirius’s only viable business plan was to be bought by XM, and XM’s only viable business plan was to hope for some kind of miracle.”

Posted in Gelt, Medialites | 3 Comments »

Bail me out, Scotty

Posted by Ron Coleman on February 10, 2009

Or something like that.  I took a couple of days to visit with my parents in their southern Florida home.  It was worth doom-postercoming down here just to be the second-youngest person for miles around; I would be the youngest but my kid brother came along, too (it was his idea actually).  My parents are just kvelling over having us here and I’ll say this much:  Nice weather sure is… nice.

Even with all the electronica around I think it’s easier to ignore what’s going on in Washington from here, though not what’s going on on Wall Street — my dad is plugged in as long as “the mockit” is open.  Well, and these days those two things are pretty firmly connected to each other.

I have to tell you, though, I was so inclined to like a lot about Barack Obama, all things considered.  In a way, I wasn’t even too unhappy with this hard and radical shift rightward on a lot of national-security and secrecy type issues, which while they make great fodder for Instapundit (and appropriately so — meet the new boss, yada yada yada), also moved Obama more in my direction on most of those things.  The fact that all this infuriates Obama’s “progressive” supporters makes it kind of fun, too.  Why, they literally can’t win for winning!

And, the cynicism and hypocrisy of it all?  Well, come on, folks!  The only people shocked and surprised by that are the ones who not only thought Obama was the new JFK, but think that by virtue of his display of phenomenal cynicism and hypocrisy, he demonstrates that he isn’t the new JFK!

Come on, folks!

But I may just end up utterly unable to get past the “stimulus” bill.  I thought this Obama was a fellow I would disagree with politically, and perhaps very fundamentally, and critically, but that he was someone I would be able to respect.  And I am looking at this swollen, irresponsible, reckless “stimulus package” and I cannot believe that something so radically and obviously bad for the country is about to be rammed through Congress and begin the process of generating the largest, ugliest economic sucking sound in the history of Keynesianism.

Imagine an Administration that in two weeks manages to make the profligate fiscal irresponsibility of government during the Bush years look, well, bush league.

What a drag.  And tomorrow afternoon I leave the palm trees behind, too, and play out the rest of winter in New York.  It could be a longer, colder one than it even seemed.

Posted in Gelt, Politics and Poker | 1 Comment »

Gornisht helfen

Posted by Ron Coleman on February 9, 2009

Gornisht helfen

Sometimes even bathroom doors in old courthouses give the best advice, but even then — do we heed it?

Posted in Heart and spirit, Homo sapiens, Sisyphus | Leave a Comment »

Remember to show your work!

Posted by Ron Coleman on February 7, 2009

Item:

As far back as 2007, salmonella-laced products were shipped by a Georgia peanut company that knew the peanuts probably were tainted and sometimes after tests confirmed that contamination, inspection records show.

Federal law forbids producing or shipping foods under conditions that could make it harmful to consumers’ health.

For fifty points:  Does this report, if true, make us more skeptical of the claim that the free market leads to safer consumer outcomes?  Or does it makes us more skeptical of the claim that regulation and government leads to safer outcomes?

Do we say that consumers assume — incorrectly — that something wouldn’t even be on the market if it were dangerous, because “the government wouldn’t allow it”?

Or do we say this goes to prove we need a bigger, better FDA, because businesses are overall pretty comfortable with poisoning some percentage of their customers as long as the revenue keeps coming in?

Posted in Gelt, O Mores!, Stragety | 1 Comment »

The witch is back

Posted by Ron Coleman on February 6, 2009

Every blogger who cares about free speech should add this to his sidebar (click it, it links):

rushscare-600x445

(Yeah, it should be “Do you know listen, or have ever listened,” but, you know.)

Posted in Oppression, Past is prologue | 1 Comment »

Rabbi Noah Weinberg, of blessed memory (expanded)

Posted by Ron Coleman on February 5, 2009

Rabbi Noah Weinberg z'l

One of my best friends called me this morning at 6:30 AM to say the Hebrew words that translate: “Blessed is the True Judge”:

We write these words with great sadness and disbelief — our beloved Rosh Yeshiva, HaRav Noach Yisrael Noach ben Yitzchak Mattisyahu Weinberg – passed away this morning, Feb 5/ Shevat 11.

“Reb Noach” changed my life more than any other person. We were not very close, but in many important respects he was like a father to me. He was the founder of the Aish HaTorah College of Jewish Studies, as it’s called officially, otherwise known simply as “Aish HaTorah” or “Aish.” Aish is a system of educational programs, including a full-blown yeshiva for students of all levels in Jerusalem as well as introductory and outreach programs throughout the world based on the premise of getting Jews back to Judaism.

I attended one such program, in Israel, after I emerged from college in 1985 as a puffy purposeless preppy who at least had the good sense to look for meaning, direction and truth. I was a little disappointed to realize, as I did, that Aish HaTorah was actually the vanguard of a whole “movement” — I didn’t want to be part of a movement; I just wanted to move. But I did move, and Aish helped move me, and what I learned and became and, in no small measure, what I left behind have made my life what it is today in virtually every positive aspect of it.

I was not young enough, or at least not in Aish early enough in my life, to be a close student, much less any kind of disciple, of R’ Noach. I don’t think I could have, anyway. I don’t believe we were simpatico that way. But still, personally, R’ Noach taught me plenty. He taught me how to live a life of resolute meaning, how to focus ambition on something greater than oneself, and how to give and give and give.

And though R’ Noach was sick, and I had been anticipating this day for years, and even had a premonition of his passing yesterday, I am very, very sad.

me-and-r-noach

And when I found the picture above I realized that I loved R’ Noach more than I perhaps understood until just now; and when I found the next picture in my scrapbook, of him warmly kissing my then-young children as if they were his own (for they were), I understood this even more, and even harder; and I let myself feel and admit that I miss him far more than I ever thought I would when I anticipated this moment, even already.

Posted in Faith and Works, Heart and spirit | Leave a Comment »

It’s that time of day

Posted by Ron Coleman on February 4, 2009

Yes, even a stopped clock is right twice a day, and it’s that time of day of the United Nations — actually describing objective facts related to the Israeli-Arab conflict that depart from the “noble savages” script regarding Palestinians.  Get this:

Christopher Gunness, a spokesman for the United Nations Relief and Works Agency, said Hamas policemen broke into an aid warehouse in Gaza City on Tuesday evening and confiscated 3,500 blankets and more than 400 packages of food.

“They were armed, they seized this, they took it by force,” Gunness said, terming the seizure “absolutely unacceptable.” . . .

“Does anyone really think that the Americans, who are our single largest donor, or the Europeans, who are our largest multination donor, would give us aid in the generous way they do if they thought that aid would go to terrorists?” Gunness said.

Yeah, that’s right:  They also acknowledged an American contribution in a public statement.  This guy Gunness, I figure he’s on a bread line by the weekend, no?

And Hamas?  Same old, same old — classic fascist Big Lie speak:

The Hamas government demanded an “immediate apology” from the U.N. “for spreading false news,” Hamas spokesman Taher Nunu said.

Amazing.  Keep this up and even Jimmy Carter will be embarrassed by these guys!

Posted in Euroids, Oppression, Orient, Politics and Poker | 2 Comments »

“War and Decision”

Posted by Ron Coleman on February 4, 2009

John Hawkins reviews Douglas Feith’s War and Decision at Right Wing News .  Two of my favorite bullet points:

  • The CIA comes across as frighteningly, almost unbelievably incompetent and petty, even though they often didn’t inform the people relying on their advice of how little they really had to base their opinions on.
  • The worst criticism, however, was reserved for the State Department in general and Colin Powell, in particular. In Feith’s view, Powell was an arrogant, passive aggressive, disloyal bureaucrat who never said that he opposed going to war, but dragged his feet at every opportunity and fought policy battles through leaks to the press.

Yoiks! Sounds like good reading.

I wonder if government is too dumb to handle stuff like policy and war.

Posted in Orient, Past is prologue, Politics and Poker, Stragety | 2 Comments »