Likelihood of Success

Ron Coleman’s pretty good blog

Obama sliding into oblivion

Posted by Ron Coleman on May 9, 2007

Alex Beam:

I wouldn’t mind living in a country where Barack Obama is president. Brains; candor; charisma; ambition hitched to a work ethic; I admire those qualities. But frankly, the people who’ve ponied up $4,600 for Obama in this election cycle might as well have piled the money on the kitchen table and set fire to it. Or donated it to the Audubon Society, which has a lot better chance of being in business a year from now than Obama’s presidential campaign.If you listen closely, the silent dog whistle is already blowing for the Obama candidacy, and the tune it is playing is taps.

I thought he just wasn’t ready. Beam suggests he just isn’t up to it. The closer you look, so do Obama’s own words and actions.

Posted in Politics and Poker | 2 Comments »

Lowenstein story

Posted by Ron Coleman on May 9, 2007

This morning I attended a breakfast seminar on insurance issues relating to technology, two areas of my interest and practice, sponsored by the Lowenstein Sandler PC, the great New Jersey law firm where I — after spending years as an “associate” — became a lawyer. It is one of the seemingly scores of firms where I have worked (it’s really something only slightly more than half a dozen) and I have not stayed in close touch. I went to a reunion once, which was nice; but you usually move apart from people personally when you part from them professionally, and all the more so when they are moving along at a different speed from yours entirely.

I watched with wonder when its star litigator, Ted Wells, pulled out of the Lowenstein orbit and basically was plopped by God into the leadership of the law firm that regards itself as His very own, Paul Weiss. I knew him, a little, and it while it was because Lowenstein could not contain Ted’s practice that he moved across the Hudson, it was, as my friend and mentor Bruce Shoulson would remark whenever asked, a fine testament (and a fine bit of business) that someone of Ted’s stature stayed at a firm in the suburbs of Essex County as long as he did. Ted became a little more famous earlier this year when he represented Scooter Libby, and his high level of achievement was as usual a reminder of my bittersweet relationship with our old firm.

But Lowenstein, Sandler, Kohl, Fisher & Boylan, a Professional Corporation, which was what the firm was called when I worked there and when Lowenstein, Sandler, Kohl, Fisher and Boylan were all firmly ensconced in their offices in Roseland, New Jersey, is never all that far from my mind. It is high up in my crowded “what if” file (I did leave under my own power, but the next stop was a disaster only slightly of my own device) and also in most cases the place where I refer people looking for the best New Jersey lawyers, especially in corporate law, even though I worked at another very fine firm in the state later, and for longer.

Another reason I never forgot Lowenstein, though, was Lowenstein — Alan Lowenstein, the firm’s founder, who was already in semi-retirement when I worked there but was in and around and very much the avuncular firm presence during that time. We would eat in the cafeteria together from time to time, and he was generous with his time and his attention, this man old enough to be my grandfather who had founded a firm that then had about 120 lawyers, half of its present size. He even seemed to have genuine insight into me, my career and what my future strategy might be, and he was probably right about it. It was a little like the relationship I had fostered with the great former Chief Judge of the New York Court of Appeals, Stanley Fuld, when he was of counsel at the white shoe New York firm where I had started my career, where no one under 40 but me seemed to realize who was padding around the halls looking for a reason to be needed. But only a little; Mr. Lowenstein was not quite so Olympian, nor so old, and in no way so bored.

Over time, though, the name partners of the firm moved into various other forms of retirement, including Matt Boylan, the name partner to whom I was closest (both in terms of our relationship and our styles of work) and who was probably my biggest fan in the firm both during and after my service there. Now the firm leadership was largely made up of lawyers who had been associates, even new hires, when I was there, and it was less, not more, comfortable for me because of that. But this time I decided to accept the invitation to a seminar because it was so closely allied to my practice interests, and while it was a bit dreary — as any talk involving insurance in a room largely full of risk managers will be — it was worth it for what I learned.

And on the way back I remembered vaguely that a few weeks ago I had wondered how Mr. Lowenstein was doing, and whether I would know when his time came, and if I would be able to honor him for the small part he played in making a callow litigation associate feel like a mensch in a great institution.

Alan Lowenstein died yesterday at age 93.

Posted in Americana, Lex scripta | Leave a Comment »

Seal of approval

Posted by Ron Coleman on May 8, 2007

“There is nothing more enjoyable than a good seal.”  Or something.  Soccer Dad breaks down some eminently blockable metaphors from the modern-day Goebbels of Iran.

Posted in Orient | Leave a Comment »

The religion of politics

Posted by Ron Coleman on May 8, 2007

I woke up the morning after the [2004] election … and cried for three straight days. … Not because my candidate lost, which he had, but because of what it meant for the solutions to global warming.

Sean Bannion on the tears of Laurie David, distinguished booker for David Letterman, wife to the real life (i.e., immensely wealthy) George Constanza and generator of thousands of private-jet hours:

I honestly don’t know what it is about left-of-center politics that makes every single political burp something devastating and personal. It only seems to make sense when you consider left-of-center politics (and especially the global warming jihad) as a religion complete with its own dogma, saints and unprovable beliefs.

Good point (especially on global warming and, regrettably to me, especially among assimilated Hebrews like Laurie David). Now, why don’t we see that on the right? Well, right-wingers fall into two broad types: Religious ones and the other ones. Religious ones, well, they have religion — or, if you must insist on bringing up the fakes and the hypocrites, they have a vocabulary of religion that spares us comments such as David’s. Religious people have faith in God, take their complaints to God, and if they’re fakes, well, you can be darned sure they’re not crying over election results.

That was easy.

And non-religious righties? Well, they have very good ideas about government, frequently. Indeed they’re often the smartest knives in the drawer. But at the end of the day, ah, they — typified by the brilliant but ultimately hollow P.J. O’Rourke, who’s quoted at Cold Fury in the link above — just don’t really care that much at all about any of it as long as they can pay the rent and shoot at cans in the back. They’re certainly not about to cry about an election if they’ve got a nice gig at National Review Online or an advance from Grove Atlantic.

That’s my working thesis, anyway. It’s also possible they’re just not big babies.

Posted in Faith and Works, Politics and Poker | 7 Comments »

Bright eyes

Posted by Ron Coleman on May 8, 2007

Instapundit writes:

Jules Crittenden would rather distinguish between bozos and non-bozos: “It’s the smart jihadis I’m more worried about. Not bozos like these. You’d almost think these were the ones they wanted us to catch.” Actually, there’s a high bozo contingent in Al Qaeda. They make up for the fact that they’re not especially bright by being persistent and willing to learn from their mistakes.

Actually, I can’t think of a better definition of “bright” than learning from your mistakes.

Posted in Sisyphus | 1 Comment »

Hedging on the truth

Posted by Ron Coleman on May 8, 2007

I said earlier this year that what was going to doom John Edwards — besides everything else — was the obvious contradiction between his running on a class-envy platform and his hair his immense wealth and conspicuously wealthy lifestyle.

Now this:

Edwards said it’s legitimate to ask questions about whether there is a contradiction between campaigning against poverty while working for a hedge fund that is designed to make rich people richer. He said the job was a compliment to his position as the head of a poverty center at the University of North Carolina.

“I didn’t feel like I understand, and to be honest with you still learning right now, sort of the relationship between that world and the way money moves in this country through financial markets,” Edwards said.

Hypocritical… cynical… and a complete BS artist!

Posted in Politics and Poker | 3 Comments »

The whole world is a narrow bridge

Posted by Ron Coleman on May 8, 2007

“And the only thing is not to be afraid.” This is the most famous and perhaps most brilliant expression wisdom of the great, esoteric and often puzzling hasidic master, Rabbi Nachman of Breslov.

But by all means get the bridge right! The New York Times looks at the extraordinary narrow bridges of the Incas, which completely befuddled the Europeans who conquered and ultimately extinguished them:

Dr. Ochsendorf, a specialist in early architecture and engineering, said the colonial government tried many times to erect European arch bridges across the canyons [of Peru], and each attempt ended in fiasco until iron and steel were applied to bridge building. The Peruvians, knowing nothing of the arch or iron metallurgy, instead relied on what they knew best, fibers from cotton, grasses and saplings, and llama and alpaca wool.

The Inca suspension bridges achieved clear spans of at least 150 feet, probably much greater. This was a longer span than any European masonry bridges at the time. The longest Roman bridge in Spain had a maximum span between supports of 95 feet. And none of these European bridges had to stretch across deep canyons.

Great bridges across great chasms.  But you still have to not be afraid!

Posted in Faith and Works | 5 Comments »

The Fitch is back!

Posted by Ron Coleman on May 8, 2007

Radioactive Liberty awakens from its slumber — as only a communication from the IRS can awaken you!

Posted in Blogophilia | 2 Comments »

Where Have All the Leaders Gone? — Lee Iacocca

Posted by Ron Coleman on May 7, 2007

Is it just me or is Lee Iacocca a REALLY bad writer with NOTHING TO SAY?

Posted in Americana | 2 Comments »

Threat to the Republic

Posted by Ron Coleman on May 7, 2007

Bob Cox over the top regarding the Olbermann threat as mostly recently realized in the GOP Presidential debate?  Never!

Posted in Medialites, Politics and Poker | Leave a Comment »