Likelihood of Success

Ron Coleman’s pretty good blog

Thought control returns to Russia

Posted by Ron Coleman on April 24, 2007

I am waiting for Noam Chomsky to weigh in:

At their first meeting with journalists since taking over Russia’s largest independent radio news network, the managers had startling news of their own: from now on, they said, at least 50 percent of the reports about Russia must be “positive.”In addition, opposition leaders could not be mentioned on the air and the United States was to be portrayed as an enemy, journalists employed by the network, Russian News Service, say they were told by the new managers, who are allies of the Kremlin.

I don’t mean (merely) to be facetious — but isn’t the creeping re-fascification of Russia and genuine repression of dissent something left-wingers everywhere should be up in arms about? It’s not even fellow-traveling to ignore this, after all — Stalin is dead.

Is it just habit — one look at those Cyrillic letters and it’s okay?  Or is it, rather, the fact that the enemy of my enemy (the West) is, on the left, always my friend?  That would, of course, align well with the left-wing defeat wish in Iraq.  I wonder when Ambassador Pelosi is heading to Moscow?

Posted in Oppression, Politics and Poker, Stragety | 7 Comments »

W-M-Denial?

Posted by Ron Coleman on April 24, 2007

Craig Karpel sends along this article from the The Spectator of London which sort of tops off the alt-media take on the WMD issue: Namely that the residual evidence is strong for a meaningful WMD cache having been located in Iraq, and that it got off to Syria:

You may be tempted to dismiss this as yet another dodgy claim from a warmongering lackey of the world Zionist neocon conspiracy giving credence to yet another crank pushing US propaganda. If so, perhaps you might pause before throwing this article at the cat. Mr Gaubatz is not some marginal figure. He’s pretty well as near to the horse’s mouth as you can get.Having served for 12 years as an agent in the US Air Force’s Office of Special Investigations, Mr Gaubatz, a trained Arabic speaker, was hand-picked for postings in 2003, first in Saudi Arabia and then in Nasariyah in Iraq. His mission was to locate suspect WMD sites, discover threats against US forces in the area and find Saddam loyalists, and then send such intelligence to the Iraq Survey Group and other agencies.

Between March and July 2003, he says, he was taken to four sites in southern Iraq — two within Nasariyah, one 20 miles south and one near Basra — which, he was told by numerous Iraqi sources, contained biological and chemical weapons, material for a nuclear programme and UN-proscribed missiles. He was, he says, in no doubt whatever that this was true.

I have always been partial to the Syria theory. For all the cynical talk about that the “runup to war,” the process was in fact absurdly shlepped out, as anyone who was reading the agonized writings of Andrew Sullivan at the time will recall. The main thing that those of us who favored military action at the time were thinking was that given this amount of time, if there’s anywhere Saddam can stash this stuff, he’s certainly been given ample opportunity to do so.

And why was Syria never confronted with the circumstantial evidence that it connived with Iraq on WMD’s? This was before, after all, Nancy Pelosi had named herself ambassador plenipotentiary to Syria. But it is likely that “realist” Colin Powell and the related Bakeroids of State, not irrationally, warned against broadening any aspect of the conflict, including the diplomatic one. The evidence against Syria was not hard; and while many have gone to the gallows on less circumstantial evidence — motive, opportunity, all that stuff — the White House, it seems, did not have the guts, even during that high-water moment of support for its actions (I mean, they had Andrew on their side!), to press the moment.

And now?

The Republicans won’t touch this because it would reveal the incompetence of the Bush administration in failing to neutralise the danger of Iraqi WMD. The Democrats won’t touch it because it would show President Bush was right to invade Iraq in the first place. It is an axis of embarrassment.

Maybe. If the proof were that good, frankly, I believe the Republicans would have jumped on it, embarrassment or not; it would have been far preferable to their current state of humiliation — in the sense of the present political crisis — over the way the war has gone. For this reason, I have to believe something very big is missing from this story, and would certainly be interested in knowing if there has been any objective debunking or not.

UPDATE: Hmm. Actually, what’s the difference? Facts, shmacts!

Posted in Orient, Politics and Poker, Stragety | 18 Comments »

Senator Clinton’s broad vision

Posted by Ron Coleman on April 22, 2007

Hillary Clinton can’t stand cronyism:

She denounced the Bush administration, which she said has left the government incompetent. “They have shown contempt for our government,” Clinton said. “We’ve got to get back to having qualified people, not cronies, serving in the government of the United States.”

That must be why “if she is elected president, she would make her husband a roaming ambassador to the world, using his skills to repair the nation’s tattered image abroad”:

“I can’t think of a better cheerleader for America than Bill Clinton, can you?” the Democratic senator from New York asked a crowd jammed into a junior high school gymnasium. “He has said he would do anything I asked him to do. I would put him to work.”

All right, that’s a little bit of a cheap shot.  It isn’t exactly cronyism when the crony used to be President.  I actually believe cronyism is this Administration’s signal weakness, and that most other of its weaknesses flow from it.  But coming from a Clinton, it is hard to stomach.  Here’s what one writer, doing a little of the homework for me, wrote a couple of years ago:

While we’re on the subject, let us not forget that the Bush Administration did not invent cronyism. Hillary Clinton in charge of Heath Care … Or what about Harry and Linda Thomason and Web Hubbell?

Those were bad.  The Bush Administration may be worse.  But is it so much worse that Hillary Clinton wants to raise this issue in a campaign where George Bush will not even be running?

Posted in Politics and Poker | 1 Comment »

Nobody knows anything about guns

Posted by Ron Coleman on April 22, 2007

That is, pretty much nobody who writes in opposition to them, or in favor of their control.

I always point out that I’m very clear which end the bullet thingies come out.

Posted in Americana | Leave a Comment »

Media’s cynical mea culpa

Posted by Ron Coleman on April 20, 2007

Drudge links to this story on Editor & Publisher — “‘Devastating’ Moyers Probe of Press and Iraq Coming” in which the left-wing media’s heart bleeds with self-inflicted wounds over its “failure” in “cheerleading for the Administration” during the “run-up to the war”:

The war continues today, now in its fifth year, with the death toll for Americans and Iraqis rising again — yet Moyers points out, “the press has yet to come to terms with its role in enabling the Bush Administration to go to war on false pretenses.”

The story does not, however, name a single “false pretense” (which is not the same as an error). It is, rather, an exercise at attacking the Administration in the guise of self-criticism, as well as an affirmation of its belief that the institutions of the mainstream media, as a branch of government, failed to exercise their veto power over the decision to invade Iraq.

Look for more such mea culpas on the media’s decision to allow the appointment of Justice Roberts, its failure to take appropriate measures to prevent last summer’s Lebanon war, and its shameful role in last weekend’s devastating Nor’easter.

UPDATE: Same thoughts, more detail.

Posted in Medialites | 18 Comments »

Trademarks and Hasidism

Posted by Ron Coleman on April 20, 2007

If you think that is an interesting post title, you will certainly find this interesting.

Posted in Americana, Faith and Works, Lex scripta | Leave a Comment »

I don’t get paid to say this: The Atlantic and me

Posted by Ron Coleman on April 20, 2007

There is something about a magazine that blogs are not about to put out of business. Slate, of course, achieves that something; it is, after all, a magazine that happens only to be online. Blogs can be great (can’t they?) and they can have long — sometimes really long — and very good articles, but they are not usually journalism.

Years ago I stumbled into an internship at Student Lawyer magazine at the American Bar Association Press in Chicago. I later became a contributing editor there, which was where I really began my writing career (let’s just say). Talking to the sparkling editrices there at the time, Liz Poppens and Sarah Hoban, they asked me what sort of magazines I read. I told them: The [old] American Spectator, the National Review, The New Republic…. they asked, how about some general interest magazines? Don’t you get the Atlantic or Harper’s? I admitted I didn’t, so then I did.

Harper’s I could not take. The famous Harper’s Index, to me, epitomized how easy it is to lie with statistics. And in general the magazine was insufferably liberal. But the Atlantic, it turned out, was a godsend. Yes, by and large its outlook is more liberal than mine, but — the writing! It was and is fantastic. So, too, is the breadth of topics intelligently covered there. You should read it. Here’s what I got just on the ride home yesterday (yeah, I read fast):

  • How American interrogators in Iraq, stripped of even remotely coercive techniques after Abu Ghraib — but with the spectre of Abu Ghraib hovering in the minds of their prisoners — “cracked Abu Musab al-Zarqawi’s inner circle“
  • About the growth of a weird suicide cult in Japan, where bored and listless young adults — in a society one Japanese says has never had to face “adulthood” — meet on the Internet to find mutually satisfactory times and places to kill themselves together
  • Virginia Postrel’s consistently excellent writing on fashion — writing so good (and this is the test) that I read it even though I don’t care much about women’s fashion
  • The sensitive, multifaceted thoughts (read to the end before you react — the whole article is available for free) of a middle-aged feminist on abortion in our time
  • A topic I won’t touch but John Burgess will
  • And, of course, HITCHENS.

You can’t consider yourself a person who lives the life of the mind, no matter how weensily, and depend on blogs to feed your brain. So I read the Atlantic, and to less of an extent I read Slate, regularly for my secular learning. (I still get The National Review, read the book reviews and short pieces and then stack it up three or four deep before I throw it away. I gave up on TNR a long time ago, while The American Spectator just plain gave up.)

You should find your quality slick-paper magazines, too — not just because you will learn things, but because you will be exposed to points of view that differ from yours and yet, unlike what is generally found on blogs (or partisan rags such as The Nation), you will read them expressed in a manner that will not insult your intelligence. This is a good thing to know how to do if you are ever to have a conversation with someone, and the writers at The Atlantic do it exceedingly well.

And that is my only prescription, by the way, for the Internet social dysfunction I complained about here. Of course there will be no systemic resolution. There are some blogs where name-calling, vulgarity, and basically a gang-up mentality will always reign, and their proprietors are happy with that. That’s fine; they have their fun, and we may join in at our risk, and, as John points out here, there is often wisdom in the bedlam. Others seek to be intelligent and reasoned voices of intellection, reflection and expression. If you prefer the latter type, or if you, as I do, seek to write one of that type, you must read real journalism, with all its faults, regularly.

Posted in Americana, Ars Longa, Medialites | 2 Comments »

Checkered background checking

Posted by Ron Coleman on April 19, 2007

Did you wonder about this minor detail: That Seung-Hui Cho was pretty much worked up by “mental health professionals” and yet got an instant green light on his federal “background check” before buying the guns he used to commit 30 murders? I’m sure you did. Here’s how:

A court-ordered mental health evaluation of Virginia Tech mass-murderer Seung-Hui Cho in December 2005 found him “mentally ill and in need of hospitalization” and “an imminent danger to self and others.” But that never showed up in computer records when he went to buy his gun.

“We ran a state police background check,” said Roanoke Firearms store owner John Markell, whose store sold Cho a Glock 19 handgun. “It came back clean.”

Federal law is fairly clear. According to the “Brady Handgun Violence Prevention Act” that became law in 1993, anyone who “[h]as been adjudicated as a mental defective or committed to a mental institution” is prohibiting from purchasing a firearm.

The definition of a “mental defective” includes anyone whom “a court, board, commission, or other lawful authority” has determined to be “a danger to himself or other” because of “marked subnormal intelligence, or mental illness, incompetency, condition, or disease.”

Cho might seem to qualify as a “mental defective” by that definition, but FBI spokesman Steve Fischer said it’s up to each state to determine who qualifies a “mental defective.” And Virginia chooses to draw its lines in a way that didn’t include Cho, even though he was found “mentally ill” and “a danger to self and others.”

That sounds kind of like some bad line drawing. Very, very bad.

This has very little to do with gun control and everything to do with the very delicate interlocking relationships between civil liberties, mental health, medicine, government, finance — and the people who wear the hats with all those names on them.

Still, if you have a standard, regardless of what words are used to label it, that is the mental-health criterion for whether someone is allowed to buy a gun, and some government agency, somewhere, makes a finding that a given person is “mentally ill” and “a danger to self and others,” it’s just negligent not to recognize that this criterion has been met — and to apply it.

And gun control advocates, here’s where you chime in and say: This is just another example of what happens when we depend on government to protect us (new link) whether on guns or anything else. “Don’t worry,” says the state. “One thing we can promise you is no nuts are going to buy guns legally any more.”

“Don’t worry” is what children, husbands and the government say when you should “Worry.”

UPDATE: Krauthammer deals with some of the issues (via Insty).

Posted in Americana, Lex scripta | 11 Comments »

Decent discourse in a virtual society

Posted by Ron Coleman on April 19, 2007

God forbid even a not-so-moderate political blogger suggests a limitation, a question, a caveat to a valued principle of the ideological charter on the Internet. He’s not just wrong — he’s an idiot, a complete dummy, or worse, and of course in instant time. I wonder if we can do anything about this, besides choosing to maintain standards on our own blogs. Here I edit out vulgar language and try to steer discussion — when there is any; this is not a well-established blog, after all — to a focus on the issues, not the adjectives, if I can. That takes time, work and patience. And of course some people are going to hate you no matter what you do.

Now, I enjoyed, and was not surprised by, the “finding” several weeks ago suggesting that left-wing blogs are — not a little, but a lot — more vulgar than those on my side of the aisle. But as Jonah Goldberg points out, our house could, not surprisingly, be a lot cleaner:

Standing up to political correctness has become an unlimited warrant to be rude for its own sake. And if you catch flak for it, you can just say you were defending free thought. Ann Coulter, for example, justifies her cruder barbs and insults on the grounds that she’s pushing back against the liberal thought police. Sometimes she’s even right. . . . I’m all in favor of acid wit and barbed satire. But too many partisans on both sides sound like Beavis and Butt-Head, tittering over trivia. . . .

The reality is that much of political correctness — the successful part — is a necessary attempt to redefine good manners in a sexually and racially integrated society. Good manners are simply those things you do to demonstrate respect to others and contribute to social decorum. Aren’t conservatives the natural defenders of proper manners?

I’ll say, but perhaps both Goldberg and I are those offensive things, cultural conservatives, whereas the dominant right-wing non-liberal ethic in the Internet tends to be libertarian. I posit that as part of the problem, along with Internet anonymity.

That, and the fact that I am always right, and you other ninnies just can’t stand this.

UPDATE:  Radioactive Liberty has this all figured out, thank God.

Posted in Americana, Blogophilia, O Mores! | 20 Comments »

Meeting across the river

Posted by Ron Coleman on April 19, 2007

Drop off at North Bergen

There’s a special world commuting across the river from Midtown Manhattan ’round midnight. I know it pretty well. I’d like to blame that fact on lawyering, but time management is not a forte of mine. And I do a little blogging, see, which does not help.

Usually slogging your way across the dense waist of the island is so hopeless that you can hardly tell what kind of distance you’re traversing getting from, say, Third Avenue and 53rd — where I work now — to the Port Authority Bus Terminal on Eighth Avenue and 42nd. It is a kind of “tell me when it’s over” experience.

This late at night I avoid the subway, not because it’s dangerous, but because the trains are so few and far between and the rats along the tracks of the E line at Lexington Avenue a little too frolicsome for my delicate sensibilities. So I took a cab, and it seemed as if, despite the relative lull in traffic — there are still always garbage trucks, vans unloading, construction sites, so it hasn’t ever been a straight shot across the City since probably the Civil War — I was in the darned thing for ten minutes and I only looked up to see my old office at Fifth Avenue. In other words, that’s where I would have started out five years ago.

Third Avenue and Fifth Avenue are not nearly as close as they sound, as any New Yorker knows; in between are not the largely imaginary Fourth Avenue but the three avenues of the Holy Trinity — Lexington, Madison and the double-barreled grandiosity of Park . Even at midnight I felt each block. At Fifth I looked out my window at the vagrants sleeping on the steps and under boxes at a church that has been the subject of litigation over the inalienable right to sleep in the street; at Sixth — what they call the Avenue of the Americas, in order to separate out tourists from locals — the constant traffic around the Hilton, the dregs of some testimonial dinner emptying onto the street; at Seventh you can begin to feel the vibration of Times Square, and then a left onto Seventh and down Broadway, into the belly of the neon beast, where night is day and 50-foot-tall underwear is always appropriate.

But seven dollars and a tip later, I was at the Port Authority, which is in the midst of a campaign to convince its countless numbed denizens seeking a nothing more than a seat on the bus or a fast way to the subways below the terminal — admittedly, like Times Square just outside, eons more pleasant and safe than when it was a festering crackhouse during the glory of the Koch Administration — is really a tony shopping mall you might like to shop or dine in rather than a bus station. No one is buying.

Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in Americana | 2 Comments »