Likelihood of Success

Ron Coleman’s pretty good blog

Sullivan in love

Posted by Ron Coleman on April 26, 2007

Andrew Sullivan is buying, big time:

But this much we can already say: Obama brings something no one else does to this moment. By replacing one of the most globally despised and domestically divisive presidents in American history with a young leader half-Kansan and half-Kenyan, America would be saying something to the world: Bush-Cheney is not who we are.

Right. We really “are” half-Kansan, half-Kenyan. Plus half-baked, of course.  Very. Here’s a term I learned from Sully back when he was the best blogger in the world — “money quote”:

Obama would mean the rebranding of America, after a disastrous eight years. His international heritage, his racial journey, his middle name: these are assets for this country, not liabilities.This is the reason for his ascendancy. This is what the American people sense and the world awaits. This is what the Islamists fear. That last alone is reason to feel hope.

Yes, rebranding. That, above all, is what Islamists fear. They hate rebranding. It’s like kryptonite to them. Pork-covered kryptonite that they have to pay money to a Jew for — that’s how much they fear rebranding.

That’s who “we” are, Andrew? What you mean “we,” paleface? Hat tip to Kaus.

Posted in Politics and Poker | 8 Comments »

They’re your friends, Joe

Posted by Ron Coleman on April 26, 2007

Senator Lieberman swims upstream in the Senate:

You can’t have it both ways. You can’t withdraw combat troops from iraq and still say you’re going to fight Al Qaeda there. If you believe that there is no hope of winning in iraq or that the costs of victory there are not worth it, then you should be for complete withdrawal as soon as possible.

But politicians have it both ways all the time, Senator Joe. You have done it yourself, and these are the fellows who share your bed.

Thanks, though, for remembering why you’re still in the Senate.

UPDATE: Al says don’t get too excited — Joe wants to stay there.

Posted in Orient, Politics and Poker, Stragety | 1 Comment »

Putin not staying put?

Posted by Ron Coleman on April 26, 2007

Putin has certainly got the look of a President for Life. So imagine my surprise at reading this:

Vladimir Putin on Thursday made his clearest rejection yet of speculation that he would try to seek a third term, but gave no hint in his state of the nation address as to whom he sees as his preferred successor.
Putin’s second term in office ends in 2008, and he is constitutionally barred from running for a third. While many observers have suggested he would try to stay in office, Putin has consistently dismissed the idea and did so again Thursday.

“The next state of the nation address will be given by another head of state,” he said.

There are many ways to skin the cat — to run a country from behind the scenes, and none can be ruled out. Yet while this man can be viewed only with great distaste by anyone in favor of freedom, if indeed he steps aside asconstitutionally required, even nominally, I will be impressed.

Putin need not evoke a constitutional crisis to stay in charge in Russia, because he is so popular, and so tightly controls the Russian political system, that a change to the constitution would be a snap for him. May the muses of real democracy forgive me for saying this, but Russia will never be America, and hardly seems to want to be. But if Putin steps aside after his two terms, I think we will have to call it, as bizarre as this sounds, Washingtonesque.

Posted in Past is prologue, Politics and Poker | 4 Comments »

State of McCain

Posted by Ron Coleman on April 26, 2007

John McCain is taking it to Congressman Murtha and the other congressional surrender monkeys:

The Arizona Republican said that people upset by his comments about IEDs to Jon Stewart on Tuesday night’s “Daily Show” should “lighten up.” After being grilled by Stewart , McCain jokingly told him that he had a present for him — an IED that he could place under his desk.

John McCain gets a lot of heat from bloggers — some of it from me, not that I matter individually, but I have also defended him as a good conservative on most core issues who, like every other politician (and every other person), has flaws. The fact that the media has turned on him means he must be doing something very right, which he is, by sticking to his guns, so to speak, on the Iraq surrender question. But a number of other things have changed, not for the benefit of John McCain.

One is that he is coming across as increasingly strange, in terms of things he’ll say — almost Deanesque. The quote above? Well, perhaps you had to be there. I like a good gag as much anyone, maybe more — but that isn’t funny. I don’t mean “it’s in bad taste, stop laughing.” I mean it is not funny. Is it possible that by virtue of losing his chorus among the media, he is just sounding tinnier? Isn’t it rich, losing his timing this late in his career?

The other is that the man is not aging gracefully, and the deformity on one side of his face seems to be more prominent as his youth — a youth largely given over to the service of his country — slips away. I was astonished at how prominent this deformity is in person when I spoke with him at a GOP Senate campaign stop in New Jersey several years ago. Physical imperfection has no bearing on his qualifications at all. Heck, John McCain has been bald as long as we’ve known him, and the track record of bald presidential candidates in modern politics is not good (Stevenson… Humphrey… Ford…), yet no one considered that a deal breaker.  But it can scarcely be pretended that his physical appearance at this point does not affect McCain’s electability, especially in a time of unparalleled superficiality.

In all, John McCain just seems less attractive than ever, notwithstanding his (qualified) virtues. He almost had a moment perhaps — the moment that may have been in some sense (some say a very specific sense) stolen by George Bush. But that moment certainly seems to be in the past.

Posted in Politics and Poker | 2 Comments »

It’s not the ceiling, after all

Posted by Ron Coleman on April 25, 2007

Improbable Research is a blog that tracks the results of… improbable research.  Wild.  Recent item: 

[Despite] anecdotal evidence that ceiling height exerts a critical influence on consumers, we were unable to uncover any theory or research that explains how, when, and why ceiling height might exert an effect.

Someone’s tax dollars at work, I’m sure.  But as someone who is not the smallest man in the world who lives in a house with seven-and-a-half-foot ceilings (yes, it’s a little like living in a dollhouse), I do want to know more.

Posted in Americana | 3 Comments »

White meat, dark meat

Posted by Ron Coleman on April 25, 2007

Mark Steyn talks about the unpleasantness in Turkey — a situation that most of us have some trouble keeping score on:

For a year or more now, there’s been a steady drip of “Who lost Turkey?” stories. The modern secular Muslim state – a country that gave women the vote before Britain did and was Israel’s best friend in an otherwise hostile region – certainly, that Turkey seems to be being de-boned by the hour: it now has an Islamist government whose Prime Minister has canceled trade deals with Israel, denounced the Iraqi elections, and frosted out the US Ambassador because he was Jewish; a new edition of Mein Kampf is prominently displayed at the airport bookstore. In other words, the Zionist Entity’s best pal is starting to look like just another cookie-cutter death-to-the-Great-Satan stan-of-the-month.

What does he ascribe this to? Admitting that he has become the “in-house Demography Bore” at National Review, he says it’s a matter of internal Turkish demographics:

Since the collapse of the Ottoman Empire, there have been two Turkeys: the Turks of Rumelia, or European Turkey, and the Turks of Anatolia, or Asia Minor. . . Ataturk’s modern secular Turkey has simply been outbred by fiercely Islamic Turkey.

Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in Euroids, Futurama | 15 Comments »

My friend Wicca

Posted by Ron Coleman on April 25, 2007

Radar Online reports that “The U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs has added the pentacle, emblem of the pagan belief system, to its list of religious symbols approved for military headstones.” Thus ends the Wicca controversy. There really wasn’t any other principled outcome. But this can’t be good for the commonwealth.

UPDATE:  More from David Blue.

Posted in Faith and Works, Oppression | 3 Comments »

Jessica Lynch’s prison memoirs

Posted by Ron Coleman on April 25, 2007

Debbie Schlussel argues that Jessica Lynch, happy recipient of the Bronze Star for her dubious heroism in the Iraq War and now happy puppet of the Senate Arms Services Committee, is a prisoner of nothing but her own ego and ambition.

Posted in Americana, Sisyphus | 2 Comments »

Failure face

Posted by Ron Coleman on April 25, 2007

“Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid defended calling the war in Iraq ‘lost’ in an interview with CNN‘s Dana Bash Monday.”

Lucy Van Pelt:

Now Charlie Brown has what you call a Failure Face, Linus. Notice how it has failure written all over it. Study it carefully. You rarely see such a good example.

failure-face.jpg

Posted in Politics and Poker | 8 Comments »

What’s all this about Zionism?

Posted by Ron Coleman on April 24, 2007

Today is Israeli Independence Day — Yom Ha’atzmaut.

Beit Shemesh and Surroundnig hills

Chaim the Lesser — a yeshiva student in California who writes extraordinary well-researched, somewhat dense and, frequently unreadable (if you’re unitiated) articles on Jewish topics — says, “In recognition of Yom Ha’atzmaut, I decided that today’s Qoton Qlassic post is an old discussion about the varying points of view within traditional Judaism concerning Zionism.” Excerpt:

The Anti-Defamation League (ADL) categorized the U.N. proclamation [defining Zionism as racism] as “anti-Semitic;” however, this description is not necessarily accurate because Judaism and Zionism have distinct identities, for some Jews are not Zionists (e.g. anti-Zionists, a-Zionists) and some Zionists are not Jews (e.g. Christian Zionists and the waning American liberal Zionists). It is unclear exactly which flavor of Zionism was referenced in the United Nations’ referendum because of the vagueness of the United Nations’ condemnation of Zionism and the multitude of differing diverse Jewish views on Zionism.

(I have posting privileges at Reb Chaim’s blog, by the way, which I have only used two or three times.)

“Chaim the Lesser” is my translation of Chaim’s blog’s actual name, “R’ Chaim HaQoton” — literally “little Chaim,” an allusion to his model, Chaim the Greater, i.e., the truly great Rabbi Chaim Soloveitchik, known as Reb Chaim Brisker. “Reb” is an informal, affectionate appellation meaning something short of “Rabbi” and something more than Mister. (Many of the most beloved orthodox rabbis are known as “Reb” even though they are very much rabbis.) “Brisker” means from the town of Brisk, i.e., Brest-Litovsk. Its most famous son, Reb Chaim Brisker was one of the greatest and influential talmudical minds and overall influential figures in orthodox Judaism of the last century or so.

My friend Reb Chaim is no Chaim Brisker — not yet. But he’s klugeh yung (smart kid) in his own right and, as usual, he covers all the bases in this article to which I’ve linked. Just get comfortable.

Posted in Faith and Works, Orient, Past is prologue | 3 Comments »