Likelihood of Success

Ron Coleman’s pretty good blog

Sticking out your neck

Posted by Ron Coleman on May 2, 2007

Big day for being wrong. Ara Rubyan says he was wrong, too — wrong in predicting that the President would not go through with his veto threat. He then more than makes up for it with this very reasonable, moderate and yet politically astute post: What The Dems Should Do Next.

But you know, Ara, being wrong is no crime. Sometimes you stick your neck out and you get to be historically right. Sometimes, true, the price of doing that is a broken neck; and understandably not everyone is up for that. Hitchens (via Hydralisk):

So one day we’ll all see just how right you all were about Iraq?
No, I don’t think the argument will stop, perhaps forever. But when it does become the property of historians rather than propagandists and journalists, it’ll become plainer than it is to most people now that it was just. Most of what went wrong with it was that it was put off too long. What a lot of people wish is that the thing could have been skipped.

And we can understand how the nihilist left would rather that the Saddam problem all just went away — and can convince itself, as it always has with its powerful appetite for myth (no matter how inconsistent with other myths in the treasury), that it just would have gone away, anyway, if only we would have sent more unicorns. And too the fascist-friendly right; it’s not that Pat Buchanan is anything but a realist about the containability of Saddam Hussein; he just didn’t consider the bad outcome from letting Saddam fester all that bad.

But how do we understand people of evident good faith who say they believe the Saddam problem, and the WMD’s that everyone knew he had, was despite that not really “our problem” — “our” meaning America the hegemon — at all? Could they actually be stupid? Possibly, but I don’t think so. Is there a fine point of strategic vision, some twist of James Baker / Cyrus Vance type “realism” that explains it? It claims to constantly; yet I have never heard an actual rational explanation, but merely self-delusion and self-congratulation from that camp. They merely go home with their Nobels and leave the problems for the next guy.

So are politics, and political ambition, and the lust for power, and cynicism, really that corrosive — so much so that, as Hitchens says, people with power and responsibility would rather just stick those necks and what’s on them deep into holes along the beach despite the solemn seriousness of their obligations, and vote as the Senate and the House did for a policy as utterly bad for long run foreign policy as the vote to capitulate in Iraq?

They are, they are.

Posted in O Mores!, Orient, Stragety | 8 Comments »

Boots on the ground

Posted by Ron Coleman on May 2, 2007

Everyone talks about the military as if they had the slightest idea of what they were talking about. In that regard it is like religion, I suppose; both invite commentary from everyone yet both actually require sophistication and education to understand. Okay, religion and the Yankees. And welding. Man, why does everyone always have to bother me with their opinions about welding?

Well, anyway, if you want to understand a little about current debates in military policy — including the fundamental question of how many boots on (and off) the ground is enough — you might want to start here.

Posted in Stragety | Leave a Comment »

The Book of Al

Posted by Ron Coleman on May 2, 2007

Not that environmentalism is a religion or anything:

Visitors to the Gaia Napa Valley Hotel and Spa won’t find the Gideon Bible in the nightstand drawer. Instead, on the bureau will be a copy of “An Inconvenient Truth,” former Vice President Al Gore’s book about global warming.

Posted in Americana | 3 Comments »

I was so wrong

Posted by Ron Coleman on May 2, 2007

I argued vociferously last year that the spin on how dumb, stupid, idiotic the Israeli prosecution of its foray into Lebanon was wrong. One could second-guess the policy, and inevitably many would; but could the Israelis really be actual idiots? As I wrote:

I’d like to think that the military, political and intelligence leadership is roughly as smart as people who write newspaper columns and blogs. But they don’t have to be. They can also be twice as smart — and fail miserably.

That certainly left me enough wiggle room. But evidently, I didn’t take enough. I was wrong, wrong, wrong. As the Winograd Commission has made clear, the Israeli government did just about everything wrong during Lebanon War II. As Jonathan Rosenblum sums it up:

The report, written in clear, detailed, and biting language, faults Prime Minister Olmert for opting for a large-scale war and declaring ambitious goals without first having received from the IDF a battle plan or evaluating whether those goals could be achieved. The prime minister is portrayed as having rushed ahead without adequate thought, and thereby thrusting Israel into a situation from which it was impossible to extricate itself, without making things even worse. He did not consider adequately the likely Hizbullah missile response and its impact on Israel.

The report’s evaluation of then chief-of-staff Lieutenant-General Dan Halutz is equally damning. He is accused of having failed to present the prime minister and cabinet with alternate plans of action, and of not informing the cabinet of the serious inadequacies in the preparation of the IDF for major combat in southern Lebanon. The only plan presented by Halutz – the first chief-of-staff to have come to the position via the air force – relied almost exclusively on Israel’s superior air power. Halutz was intoxicated with air power, with its capability to deliver great destructive power with little risk of incurring casualties, as the solution to most of the military threats to Israel. Thus he never sought an early mobilization of reserves so that they could be equipped and trained if a major ground operation were required.

The report further charges Halutz with not taking seriously enough warnings of a possible Hizbullah attempt to kidnap Israeli soldiers, and not ensuring that adequate precautions were taken against such an attempt.

Defense Minister Amir Peretz is treated by the report as a complete cipher, who knew or should have known that he was totally unqualified for the job when he took it, and having made little effort to make himself better informed in the months leading up to the war. “His lack of experience and knowledge,” the report states, “prevented him from challenging in a competent way both the IDF, over which he was in charge,” and from demanding from the IDF the “presentation of serious strategic options for discussion.

And so on.

Every democracy gets the government it deserves, and we have so very little to be proud of on that score these days; but Israel with its wretched and corrupt political system has truly failed its people this time.

The only reasons to hope: There was a Winograd Commission, and its report was not suppressed. We all know how valuable it is to admit when you’re wrong, after all.

UPDATE: Meryl Yourish confirms: It is indeed a moron issue.

Posted in Orient, Politics and Poker | 12 Comments »

Chicago

Posted by Ron Coleman on May 1, 2007


Chicago

Originally uploaded by Ron Coleman.
I have not been blogging a lot the last couple of days because I’ve been in my home away from home, Chicago, participating in the International Trademark Association annual conference.

I am so glad I found a way to make it to INTA this year, because I spent three years in law school living in Chicago, and I had forgotten what a great city this is. I suppose the only rationale I can figure I had for leaving was that New York is ultimately home for me and I believed that, well, if you can make it there you can make it anywhere.

No one told me what happens if you can’t make it there. (I found out.)

Posted in Metropolis | 2 Comments »

Misunderestimating blogs

Posted by Ron Coleman on April 29, 2007

A VC in New York explains “Why 15 Million Is A Big Number”:

cNet suggests that the blogging bubble has burst. I don’t think it’s a bubble. I think its a revolution. We are taking over the media, slowly but surely. And this revolution isn’t going to burst. It may morph as new tools emerge that allow people to express themselves publicly.I think the more interesting number would be the percentage of internet audience time that is spent on social media. I am sure it’s still growing (maybe exponentially) and traditional media (including cnet) is declining.

There’s another number we’d like to know, too, or rather another set of numbers. I don’t have to tell a VC this, but: Who are the readers of the 15 million blogs? He cites a “ten to one rule” —

The 10 to 1 rule says that in social media, for every 10 readers you need one content creator. So 15 million bloggers will serve 150 million blog readers. That’s a ton of blog readers.

That’s interesting, if it’s true. “Rules” like that are the stuff myths are made of. But even if it’s a slice of that — who are the readers? I believe, because I am prejudiced, that it is a large percentage of “opinion leaders” and leaders of other sorts — political, commercial, technological. I don’t have to teach a VC the concept of demographics.

We both agree: Focusing on a single datum such as the growth in the number of blogs is silly. People don’t start new car or aircraft companies too often, either, but a hundred years ago they did. De facto barriers to entry, even those “erected” by a perception that there’s nothing special in starting just another blog in a crowded field, bespeak a maturation of the significance medium, not an apogee.

Posted in Blogophilia | Leave a Comment »

Cold Turkey

Posted by Ron Coleman on April 29, 2007

Cold as in secular, rational — which, when it comes to modern governments, we’re all in favor of.  I quoted Mark Steyn last week, who says the question of the moment is “who lost Turkey?” to the Islamists.  Ali Eteraz dismissed Steyn’s take.  Maybe Ali is right.

Posted in Orient | 2 Comments »

The core of the election

Posted by Ron Coleman on April 27, 2007

Really, it’s all about Olbermann.

Posted in Medialites | Leave a Comment »

Whatever happened to….

Posted by Ron Coleman on April 27, 2007

Elliott Gould? When I learned I had been nominated for the JIB awards I wanted to parody the concept of “Jewish American”-ism, and I picked a bunch of pictures of “famous American Jews” of the sort that a certain kind of restaurant has up on the wall to show which Jewish American mouths may or may not have been filled there.

Somewhat, but not entirely, randomly, I chose Comedy Genius Mel Brooks, who schmaltzes along in something that looks like retirement, Musical Genius Marvin Hamlisch, who lives forever in his melodies and is still doing nicely, thank you, on royalties, Wasted Genius Allan Sherman and … Elliott Gould, who, I felt, was basically what I could have been if I had been born twenty years earlier and been considerably taller.

In other words, he was the least like me of the four of them.

Okay, but what ever happened to Elliott Gould, whom I otherwise had probably not thought about for the last ten years? It just so happens that as I walked on the streets of Manhattan this week, The Village Voice, of all things, provided the — or an — answer.

Posted in Americana, Ars Longa | 2 Comments »

Edwards fades

Posted by Ron Coleman on April 26, 2007

Kaus on Edwards at tonight’s debate:

Edwards kind of faded into the background. Crickets didn’t chirp–they completed their entire life-cycle during the pause after Edwards was asked to name his ‘moral leader.’ …

Edwards: “So” not the story of this election, I promised you.

Posted in Politics and Poker | 1 Comment »