Likelihood of Success

Ron Coleman’s pretty good blog

Warming up north

Posted by Ron Coleman on April 4, 2007

Al Gore feels some heat himself:

The former U.S. vice-president’s speech was effectively his Academy Award-winning documentary An Inconvenient Truth with updated statistics, and presented by an angrier, fist-shaking Gore.
His presentation was halted at least twice as opponents to his agenda began to shout out.
They called him a liar and a villain, and screamed, “What about your swimming pools?” in regards to recent allegations that the monthly electricity bill of Gore’s estate rivalled a year’s bill for the average American home.
This led Gore to joke, “I don’t even know if you guys are left- or right-wing”.

That’s a joke? The sad, not funny, part is that this confirms a fundamental truth: To Gore, whether or not their point about his hypocrisy is correct is a function of which side of the political divide they’re on.

As opposed to whether or not they’re right.

Posted in Politics and Poker | 11 Comments »

Iran climbs down

Posted by Ron Coleman on April 4, 2007

We are of course supposed to be impressed by Iran’s climb-down and release of the British hostages. Of course, Iran had nowhere else to go; as I said earlier, they had painted themselves, every bit as much as Tony Blair, into a corner — and they probably had more to lose at this point by prolonging the pain. Still, this is a better outcome at this point for Britain than any I could have imagined. But that doesn’t make it a good outcome. Roger Kimball (via Instapundit) isn’t fooled either:

The Iranians made their point. They brazenly kidnapped those British military personnel, calculating, correctly, that the Brits would do nothing to stop them. They publicly humiliated the sailors and marines, thumbed their noses at the “international community,” and made the point with brutal elegance that they could flout the law with impunity. Then they have the gall to say they have decided to make the British people a gift of their own countrymen.

I am glad the hostages are to be released. Their emancipation is no gift, however, but merely the bitter codicil of this latest instance of Iran’s criminal insolence.

Not only that, but the lovefest that will greet Ahmadinejad for this “gesture” — entirely guaranteed in this topsy-turvy moral world of international relations — will actually buy him (and his friends Syria and Russia) tremendous credibility, utterly undeserved, as someone regarding whom patience and of course a lack of harshness can bear fruit.

In short, he got what he wanted and needed, and is far better off for it than if he had never done it all. A brilliant tactical move, however wicked and illegal.

Posted in Orient, Politics and Poker | 2 Comments »

Perfectly Passover

Posted by Ron Coleman on April 2, 2007

The lights will be out here (or on timers) through Wednesday as I observe Passover. Tonight is the First Seder and we celebrate the first two days of the holiday as festival days, doing no work — including the use of electrical appliances such as computers — until the end of the second day. During the intermediate days of the holiday these restrictions are relaxed considerably.

If you’re a Jewish person in the New York area and haven’t got a place for the seder, there are numerous possibilities. Here’s one in Brooklyn I was asked to pass along.

Have a sweet, meaningful and proper one!

Posted in Faith and Works | 1 Comment »

Underwriting by untermenschen

Posted by Ron Coleman on April 1, 2007

Chubb recently refused to insure a New Jersey law firm because it has a blog.

This is not surprising. What’s largely going on, I can tell you from experience, is that small law firms are just plain finding it impossible to get malpractice coverage. It was the straw that broke the camel’s back for my old law firm. Despite being admitted since 1989 and never having a claim, plus, of course, all my marvelous professional qualities — a longstanding AV rating, top schools, a grip like a plumber — I could not get more than one quote for malpractice insurance for my five-lawyer shop, even though once a year half a dozen prospective insurers would bombard me with faxes and mailings seeking my business. To legal malpractice underwriters, intellectual property — and they stupidly see trademark, copyright and patents are all the same thing — is a dirty word. The one policy I could get was for an annual premium of $25,000. If you’re smaller than being able to afford that, and do anything remotely interesting, they don’t want your business.

In this case the blog was really just an excuse, but is certainly is a troubling precedent.

Chubb, of course, would not return calls to the reporter from the New Jersey Law Journal who was inquiring about its idiotic decision. All it would say to the law firm was, “this is not a risk [we] are interested in undertaking.”

This level of discourse typifies the arrogance of insurance companies who, I must admit, I spent a significant part of my career suing on behalf of insureds. Now, Chubb and other insurance companies don’t owe coverage to anyone. On the other hand, the market for professional malpractice insurance is not even remotely comparable to free enterprise. It is mandated for most firms, and, of course, being insurance carriers, basically the entire way they do business is regulated.

The result is the erection of barriers to entry, or to remaining in the field, for newcomers and small players. Blogs make an easy target, especially for people who don’t have them or don’t get them. Hat tip to Bizzy Blog.

Posted in Gelt, Lex scripta | Leave a Comment »

Jewish sock puppets in Iran

Posted by Ron Coleman on April 1, 2007

Sad, but not surprising. (And evidently not an April Fool’s joke!)  Here’s the link to the story put out by Der Sturmer the Iranian news agency on behalf of Iran’s Jews — emphasis added for the fast readers among us:

The Association of Iranian Jews…renewed its commitment in a message issued on the threshold of the Jewish religious festival of the Passover, which starts Monday night.

“In obedience to the instructions of Jesus, in the new Iranian year, which has been declared year of national unity and Islamic solidarity, Iranian Jews voice their readiness to defend all national interests of Iranians and to observe the guidelines set by Supreme Leader (Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei) for the sake of strengthening national unity and solidarity in the fight against present-day pharaohs,” the message said.

Courtesy of Instapundit. Yes, the “instructions of Jesus,” probably the world’s most famous Jew and surely the one least frequently cited as an authority by them.

As Michael Rubin at The Corner says (link added), “Two possibilities emerge: Either revolutionary appartchiks who know nothing of Judaism or Christianity are penning pro-Islamic Republic solidarity messages in other peoples’ names—in which case ignorance is astounding as no one caught the mistake—or Iranian Jews living in the Islamic Republic (there are still around 20,000) are signaling that something is very wrong.”

Jews are good at that, actually.

Posted in Faith and Works, Orient | 5 Comments »

Illegal aliens and amnesty

Posted by Ron Coleman on April 1, 2007

Mickey Kaus does all the hard work figuring out what rational people are supposed to think on the issue of immigration policy in the coming years.

Now I’m no Lou Dobbs.  Okay, I can’t stand Lou Dobbs.  But he’s right about this:  This administration has utterly failed to deal properly, or, really, at all, with immigration, and there is no bigger disappointment for conservatives, among a number of disappointments.

Posted in Politics and Poker | Leave a Comment »

TechCrunch acquires … er, oh …

Posted by Ron Coleman on March 31, 2007

TechCrunch announces that it’s acquired a website whose name is not safe for work… or home… a name we haven’t heard about since those halcyon days after the music died at the end of the first Dot Com boom.

I love the whole concept of arbitraging failure.

UPDATE:  April Fools?  Well, if you can do them in March, they are certainly more effective!

Posted in Gelt, Nuvo-Techno | Leave a Comment »

Orthodox leaders support Iraq war effort

Posted by Ron Coleman on March 30, 2007

Reb Chaim HaQoton reports on the statement from the Agudath Israel of America, of which I am an active member (explanatory link added by me):

Upon consultation with its rabbinic leadership, Agudath Israel of America issued the following statement:

Since September 11, 2001, the United States has been involved in a war against forces of evil and terror. These forces pose a grave danger not only to the United States and its allies in the Western World, but also to our Jewish brethren in Israel and across the globe.America’s efforts in Iraq have been part of this larger battle. While, in retrospect, the planning and execution of some of these efforts may have been less than perfect, there have also been significant achievements. The bottom line, at this time, is that the stakes in Iraq remain high, and that there still remains much to be done.

Agudath Israel of America believes that President Bush is entitled to great deference in his ongoing efforts to stabilize the situation in Iraq. Such deference is appropriate both because of the constitutional authority that inheres in the President’s position as Commander in Chief, and also because of the moral authority the President has consistently displayed in leading the battle against international terror.

We feel compelled to express our views at this time because the Union for Reform Judaism, purporting to have arrived at its position through an application of “halachic norms” and “Jewish values,” has publicly proclaimed its opposition to the President’s policies in Iraq. This group is entitled to its own organizational position, but that position is neither a legitimate expression of halachic Judaism nor reflective of authentic Jewish values.

Posted in Faith and Works, Orient | Leave a Comment »

Megalaw firm shuts down

Posted by Ron Coleman on March 30, 2007

Dallas-based Jenkins & Gilchrist is winding down operations. That’s a firm that employed 600 lawyers at its height. Unfortunately they employed a large number of them at creating illegal tax shelters.

Posted in Americana, Gelt, Lex scripta | Leave a Comment »

Ich bin ein Moonbat

Posted by Ron Coleman on March 30, 2007

Don Surber writes about the belief system of today’s Germans:

A poll by der Stern showed that 48% of Germans think the U.S. is more dangerous than Iran. Only 31% think the other way. Hmm. Are they sure San Francisco wasn’t included in that poll?[snip]

The Germans have believed in many things in the course of their recent history. They’ve believed in colonies in Africa and in the Kaiser. They even believed in the Kaiser when he told them that there would be no more political parties, only soldiers on the front.

Not too long afterwards, they believed that Jews should be placed into ghettos and concentration camps because they were the enemies of the people.

Harsh. But here’s what I snipped: “Claus Christian Malzahn, online political editor for der Spiegel takes this apart.” Yeah, he’s one of them. More:

We’ve known just what they’re like for a long time. The 19th century German author Karl May taught us about the American Wild West, and Karl Marx warned us about unbridled capitalism.

Besides, we’ve all been there at least once — on vacation, of course.Be it in California or Florida (that’s where you get the best deals on rental cars, you know), we can see right through the Americans.For us Germans, the Americans are either too fat or too obsessed with exercise, too prudish or too pornographic, too religious or too nihilistic. In terms of history and foreign policy, the Americans have either been too isolationist or too imperialistic. They simply go ahead and invade foreign countries (something we Germans, of course, would never do) and then abandon them, the way they did in Vietnam and will soon do in Iraq.

Worst of all, the Americans won the war in 1945. (Well, with German help, of course — from Einstein and his ilk.) There are some Germans who will never forgive the Americans for VE Day, when they defeated Hitler. After all, Nazism was just an accident, whereas Americans are inherently evil. Just look at President Bush, the man who, as some of SPIEGEL ONLINE’s readers steadfastly believe, “is worse than Hitler.”

Ironically, they wouldn’t really know. Maybe if they read more of Malzahn — who is quite the contrarian voice there, and has a powerful perch from which to observe and declaim — they would. But don’t count on it.

Posted in Euroids | 5 Comments »