Likelihood of Success

Ron Coleman’s pretty good blog

Hitting bottom, all right

Posted by Ron Coleman on November 25, 2008

Ara Rubyan:

My son has asked me on more than one occasion recently, “So what do we do now?” Usually, in that conversation, I start out apologizing to him for the mess my generation has left him to deal with. Which leads to him asking his question.

Say it ain’t so, Ara.  You apologize to your son?  On behalf of your entire generation?  Because it has left the future such a sticky, gooey mess?

It is stuff like this — and Ara is thoughtful, and insightful, and serious — that reminds me that even though I’m obviously not nearly rabidly oppositional enough about Barack Obama, I must really not be any kind of liberal at all.

Posted in Heart and spirit, Sisyphus, Style | 9 Comments »

Foggy Bottom

Posted by Ron Coleman on November 24, 2008

Hitch on Hillary:

In matters of foreign policy, it has been proved time and again, the Clintons are devoted to no interest other than their own. A president absolutely has to know of his chief foreign-policy executive that he or she has no other agenda than the one he has set. Who can say with a straight face that this is true of a woman whose personal ambition is without limit; whose second loyalty is to an impeached and disbarred and discredited former president; and who is ready at any moment, and on government time, to take a wheedling call from either of her bulbous brothers? This is also the unscrupulous female who until recently was willing to play the race card on President-elect Obama and (in spite of her own complete want of any foreign-policy qualifications) to ridicule him for lacking what she only knew about by way of sordid backstairs dealing. What may look like wound-healing and magnanimity to some looks like foolhardiness and masochism to me.

It is hard to understand how Obama could really do this.  (Though if you read Dick Morris, certain aspects of the story do become more clear!)

Posted in Politics and Poker, Stragety | 2 Comments »

“Anti-gay”: Rights, wrongs and everything in between

Posted by Ron Coleman on November 23, 2008

Instapundit:

THOUGHTS ON gay rights and the G.O.P.’s future: “It’s not that we’re likely to crack more than 35% of the gay vote (well, maybe 40%). But, to win back the suburbs, Republicans can’t alienate suburbanites. And anti-gay attitudes don’t resonate with families who have known gay people in college –and maybe even in the workplace–and even in their own families.” Sounds right to me.

Yeah sounds right, unless you think about it.. even a little.  Then it sounds absolutely chilling, even if Gay Patriot himself doesn’t put chillingly.

Guess what:  Notwithstanding the antique Jerry Falwell image of cultural conservatives painted in the media — including the libertarian blogosphere — the vast majority of cultural conservatives are not “anti-gay” any more than they’re “anti-black.”  We know homosexuals … gays, yes… and blacks.  We’re friends with gays and blacks.  And regarding gays In the 21st century, few but the most hopeless paleoconservatives, fundamentalists of mainly non-Judeo-Christian stripes, and, well, weirdos have any interest in busting into bedrooms and getting any bit involved in what goes on behind closed doors.

But this is not the issue.  Conservatives are labeled “anti-gay” because people don’t know that some of our best friends — really — are gay.  And here Glenn Reynolds is not writing like a law professor, but like, well, a libertarian blogger.  But, in fact:

Regarding civil rights of blacks, it was not enough to say that they could be “tolerated” for being black.  It was and is a moral imperative to ensure that blacks received every legal right and benefit under the law that any other American received.  Beyond that, we can agree to disagree as to specific policies and goals to address America’s legacy of racism, but on fundamentals, in our time there is no disagreement.

It’s different for gays.  Yes, it is.  Gays are not asking for the same rights as everyone else, no matter how much they jump up and down and threaten to hold their breath till they turn blue.  It is not mere semantics to say “we want the same right to marry whom we love as straights have”; it is a fundamentally different, new, radical, revolutionary right that they want — the right to change the word very concept of marriage to include “marrying whomever they love,” whereas until just right now it has meant, semantically and legally, the right to join in matrimony with a person of the opposite sex.

This is not an argument about whether they should be entitled to that right.  If Instapundit and the rest of the decidedly irreligious rightosphere believes that gays should be entitled to a new right — the right to same-sex marriage — let them say so, as many do.  But conservatives are entitled to insist that this right be acknowledged, debated and addressed as new, radical and different, not — as its advocates insist in utter disregard of intellectual honesty — the axiomatically, morally-mandated extension of basic civil rights to gays comparable to ending the ban on miscegenation.  It is not that. Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in Homo sapiens, Medialites, O Mores! | 21 Comments »

Wi-Fi in the clouds

Posted by Ron Coleman on November 23, 2008

Wi-Fi  is finally working its way into airplanes… slowly, though.

What on earth is taking so long?  Can we trade in the four peanuts and the free issue of Skymall in order to get this going?

Posted in Nuvo-Techno | 2 Comments »

Depressed? Maybe. Depression? Not close.

Posted by Ron Coleman on November 23, 2008

Daniel Gross in Slate:

All this historically inaccurate nostalgia can occasionally make you want to clock somebody with one of the three volumes of Arthur M. Schlesinger Jr.’s history of the New Deal. The credit debacle of 2008 and the Great Depression may have similar origins: Both got going when financial crisis led to a reduction in consumer demand. But the two phenomena differ substantially. Instead of workers with 5 o’clock shadows asking, “Brother, can you spare a dime?” we have clean-shaven financial-services executives asking congressmen if they can spare $100 billion. More substantively, the economic trauma the nation suffered in the 1930s makes today’s woes look like a flesh wound. . . .

So what’s with all the speakeasy-era speak? Financial executives invoke distant history in part to make up for their own recent shortcomings. If a force as powerful as the Great Depression has been unleashed on the global economy, how can a mere mortal like Merrill’s John Thain be held responsible? The specter of the 1930s has also been deployed by political leaders to create a sense of urgency.

Gross could have said a lot more, but the article is a good starting point.  Too bad he throws away the historical accuracy — or, perhaps, relies too much on Schlesinger — with this whopper:

A final difference: After the 1929 crash, the nation had to wait more than three years for a president who simply wasn’t up to the job to leave the scene. This time, we’ve got to wait only two more months.

Ha, ha, ha.  Forget the slam at George Bush, utterly backed up with argumentation or proof, or the premise that the “president who is up to the job” is the utterly unproved Barack Obama.  It’s Slate, so these “facts” are simply presumed accepted by readers.  But it’s the facile take on Herbert Hoover that’s ignorant.  Clearly the worst thing Hoover did in connection with the Depression was done well before the Depression, though it probably either caused it or made its depth inevitable:  Signing the overwhelmingly popular Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act.  But the main thing FDR did when he got in office was basically more of everything Hoover was doing — much of which was wrong, but virtually all of which was made legendary when effectuated with the increased political support in the hands of Roosevelt.

So maybe the parallel isn’t so inapt.

Posted in Gelt, Medialites, Politics and Poker | Leave a Comment »

Let the man lash out

Posted by Ron Coleman on November 23, 2008

Naturally he’s upset:  His son just killed himself on the Internet:

The father of a college student whose suicide was broadcast live over a webcam said Saturday he was appalled by the virtual audience that egged on his son and called for tougher regulation of Internet sites.

“Tougher regulation of Internet sites”?   That’s like arguing that because people shout out to jumpers, “JUMP!,” we should have tougher regulation of city blocks.

Don’t confuse the medium with the human condition.  But let’s give the man his space, too.  It’s a sad thing.

Posted in Homo sapiens, Sisyphus | Leave a Comment »

Existential angst for big law firms?

Posted by Ron Coleman on November 20, 2008

Or just some bad lobster?  Bruce McEwen asks, apropos “BigLaw” — the major law firms whose profitability and hourly rates seem always to be immune from economic reality:

If the US Treasury is a major stockholder in major financial institutions, how will that change the dynamic of how premium-level legal services are bought and sold? Not to be facetious about it, but how would you feel to be called before Barney Frank to justify your $950/hour rates?

Not facetious at all.

Posted in Gelt, Lex scripta, Metropolis | Leave a Comment »

Halloween’s over!

Posted by Ron Coleman on November 19, 2008

Instapundit:

TO SAVE THE AMERICAN AUTO INDUSTRY, let Detroit go bankrupt.

Meanwhile, Katie Granju thinks that such talk is union-busting in disguise.

In disguise?

We don’t need no stinkin’ disguises!!

Posted in Gelt, Oppression, Stragety | Leave a Comment »

Union Shadows

Posted by Ron Coleman on November 19, 2008



UnionShadows

Originally uploaded by Ron Coleman

Washington, DC makes it look easy!

Posted in Uncategorized | 3 Comments »

Watch the whole thing!

Posted by Ron Coleman on November 18, 2008

Pace Emmett Tyrell, now is the conservative crackup. Melissa Clouthier is right: You really have to take a few minutes to watch this, the whole thing, to get a sense of where we aren’t going, and how we aren’t getting there.

I don’t know what to make of it.  First of all it’s hardly clear what the role of Brink Lindsey is here.  It’s Bloggingheads.tv, but we don’t really need two blogging heads (does Brink really even blog except as an afterthought?), one — here, David Frum — to talk, and one to bounce up and down.  That’s not blogging, that’s bobbing.

But this is of a piece with the wing of the GOP that believes that to be a Republican is essentially to be a libertarian with NATO, or something like that.  Brink has made a career now of insisting that the Right write off right, or any concept of conservative values, to be relevant in the future.  Now David Frum is at least acknowledging that he has no business at the National Review, still redolent of the incense and candles of the late William F. Buckley’s Catholic-based conservatism.  If Frum is a post-neoconservative, then what kind of conservative is he, if he is so contemptuous of “heartland” conservative sensibilities?  If Frum is the lone voice of a resurgent intellectualism on the Right, in theory much to be welcomed, how can he compare the inexcusable Harriet Miers nomination to the political arbitrage of the Palin candidacy?

We don’t need, and I don’t want any part of, a party of Brink Lindseys and P.J. O’Rourkes, and such a party has no future in this country as an alternative to the present regime.  Frum, whose persona and ethnic / religious identity, a Google search reveals, unleashes a great deal of smoke but very little light, even confuses the Jews.  As far as this Jew, so does this debate, both as exemplified in the video above and in other trenches, confound.  But perhaps free of the Bush White House and out of National Review, David Frum can go somewhere coherently intellectual, yet genuinely conservative; and perhaps there will be something good there.  He need not throw out the values baby with the know-nothing bathwater; if he does, what does he have?

Let’s see just how smart David Frum really is.

Posted in Heart and spirit, O Mores!, Politics and Poker, Stragety | 4 Comments »