Likelihood of Success

Ron Coleman’s pretty good blog

The Eagle has not landed…

Posted by Casey Tompkins on December 30, 2007

Ok, so maybe my participation here isn’t quite as thrilling as Neil Armstrong’s moment, but hey, I’m still excited. 🙂

I’ve followed Ron’s comments on Dean’s World for a while, as well as occasionally dropping by here. He has impressed me as someone who thinks hard about things before opining.

Recently Ron invited me to start blogging on “Likelihood” for various reasons, including the fact that I’m very much not a carbon copy of himself.

So. For those not familiar with me from Dean’s World or my own Gantry Launchpad, I shall offer some form of resume. I suppose a good first step would be here. The tone seems a touch dramatic to me, now, but I have no reason to retract any of those statements.

I shall elaborate one the above precis. I am not a minarchist, nor am I a libertarian, as I significantly deviate from both philosophies. There are some things government does well, or at least more effectively than the private sector. I, for one, would prefer not to live in a city where law enforcement or the courts are run by private enterprise.

Perhaps some correspondence with Ron would be illustrative; from an email I sent to him:

Just to clear things up, I am a Independent dedicated specifically to neither conservatism, libertarianism, nor minarchism. I am strong on 2nd Amendment rights, illegal immigration (although Michelle Malkin regularly makes me ill on this topic) and the supremacy of local government.

On the other hand, I can’t stand PC foolishness, hate speech, or people who want to tell me what to drink, eat, or think.

I can also understand (and can sympathize with) the origin of pacifism and anti-war sentiment in this country, even though I think the leading Dems (yes, I’m talking about that jackass from Nevada) are wrong.

BTW, people who blame FDR for the expansion of the Federal government are off-base; they should blame LBJ and Nixon. Yes, I said “Nixon.” 🙂 That bad boy had more to do with the extension of modern government of any president besides Johnson.

Now. You tell me where I land, politically.

I’ll just take a moment here to thank Ron for this opportunity, and I hope my work here will live up to his (and your) expectations.

Posted in Uncategorized | 6 Comments »

Succesful launch!

Posted by Ron Coleman on December 29, 2007

I’ve convinced Casey Tompkins, who has maintained the Gantry Launchpad (a Large Mammal!) blog since 2004, to contribute to this blog, now that he’s once again up to posting regularly.

Why? Because I need help keeping the momentum up. And he’s good! He’s wrong on some things, too, so that will make me look even better. And he’s a lot better with a slide-rule than I am.

I think I get a mazal tov.

Posted in Blogophilia | 4 Comments »

“Goodbye, Harry”

Posted by Ron Coleman on December 29, 2007

More “best of,” whatever that means. Here‘s my only book review this year, which suffers at least from the deficiency of denying that it is a book review — and that, perhaps, J. K. Rowling may upend not only whatever degree of artistic resolution she achieved with the seventh book but my title as well. But I live with paradox:

I’m on my little vacation (as a self-employed professional, it’s very little indeed; but at least I am in a different place from where I hpdhcover.jpgusually am, and getting a little sun and fresh air) and I just had the opportunity to finish Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows. I liked it a lot, was very touched at a number of junctures, and feel that I was well treated by the author.

I am not a literary critic, so I am not going write a review. But here are my “bullet point” thoughts, which I throw out into the ether on the explicit premise that millions await my verdict on the last Harry Potter book, howsoever telegraphically expressed:

The series is, above all, about love. Not hardly romantic love, though more so the love among friends. But mainly it is about the love that flows from parent to child and, perhaps, from surrogate parent to child. The vehicle for the expression of love in the series is loyalty. Now, one can be loyal without love, and perhaps one can even love without excelling at loyalty; but here the true test of love is not passion, or ecstasy, or warm fuzzy feelings, but loyalty — and the sacrifice that in turn is what loyalty demands. Voldemort, of course, epitomizes the antithesis of loyalty.

We see, indeed, that loyalty is only tested, and only rendered meaningful, by self-sacrifice, a negation of the self for others; indeed this is the absolute moral and the basis of salvation at the end. This is a very Judeo-Christian message, if not the Judeo-Christian message, and all the more a shame that poorly-ground religionists condemn the books. Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in Ars Longa | 1 Comment »

Almost home

Posted by Ron Coleman on December 28, 2007

For the week, the day, the year. And what a year.  And then some?

Posted in Heart and spirit, Metropolis | Leave a Comment »

No-“L” libertarian

Posted by Ron Coleman on December 28, 2007

James Taranto excerpts quotes from crank candidate Ron Paul criticizing civil rights legislation and Lincoln’s decision not to permit the slave states to break away from the Union and continue slavery. Taranto explains that for Paul ingrown libertarian ideology, and the kind of contempt for the federal government mainly identified with private-militia types, seems less important than actual liberty — even for Americans.

How soon does Ron Paul really just go away?

Posted in Oppression, Politics and Poker | Leave a Comment »

But to do and die

Posted by Ron Coleman on December 28, 2007

Charge of the Light BrigadeNeo-neocon:

The big news today seems to hardly be news at all. Like a tragic play you watch anyway, knowing it will not end well, Benazir Bhutto’s assassination—once by shooting and again by bombing, just to make certain—almost seems to have been an inevitability. . . .Whatever you may think of Bhutto’s politics (my recent take is here), it’s impossible to argue with her bravery.

That seems to hit just about the right notes.

Posted in Oppression, Orient, Past is prologue | 2 Comments »

Dutch treat

Posted by Ron Coleman on December 27, 2007

This is so wild you have to see it to believe it. I have seen it, in fact, and I still don’t believe it.

An official Dutch government production?! Are we being scammed?

And as laughing matters go… if things were now going the way they were six months ago in Iraq… would this have been made? (Via Insty.)

Posted in Jocularity, Orient | 2 Comments »

Facebook moment

Posted by Ron Coleman on December 27, 2007

Friend

Today at 8:14am

let’s try to talk today…

 

Ron Coleman

Today at 8:20am

Sure

 

Ron Coleman

Today at 9:43am

I’m in my office; not sure where you are. My number these days is 212-338-0700.

 

Friend

Today at 12:13pm

i’m busy til around 3 today – will call if i have some downtime…

 

Ron Coleman

Today at 12:35pm

LOL such a typical [Friend] moment!

J: let’s try to talk today…
R: sure
R: I’m in my office; not sure where you are. My number these days is 212-338-0700.
J: i’m busy til around 3 today – will call if i have some downtime…

If I didn’t love you like a brother it would sure look manipulative — as if you want or need to talk, but having gotten me to now suggest that we actually do, you’ll see if you “have some downtime.”

But I do love you like a brother and I’m delighted you’re so busy. Call if you do have the time. 😉

He did call, and it was very special!  On the other hand, I can’t reprint what he wrote back.

Posted in Jocularity, Style | 1 Comment »

“Ever again”

Posted by Ron Coleman on December 27, 2007

This “best of” item from July 2007 was the number-one all-time most popular posting on Likelihood of Success since I started it in March — nearly 8,000 pageviews, the result of a particularly fortuitous Instalanche. Considering the rise of Barack Obama right now, and the deafening silence from candidates such as Obama on the Left regarding Iraq, this post perhaps still has something to say.

James Taranto (and others) got exercised last week over the fact that Barack Obama won’t get exercised over genocide.

It’s a nice political point to score on him, but give him points for honesty. “Never again” is the Big Lie of the second half of the twentieth century. Tonight, on the eve of the 65th anniversary of the deportation of Jews from the Warsaw Ghetto to Treblinka, we must be honest: If we knew then what we know now, about the mass killings, the gas chambers, the sick human experimentation, the crematoria — if we knew it were going on right now …

America, and the rest of the world, would not do a damned thing about it.

Indeed, as the official position of the Left, including its handmaiden the mainstream press, becomes “we would not have agreed to fight in Iraq if Bush had not lied to us about weapons of mass destruction” — however absurd a lie that is; and this is combined with the turning away from events in Darfur, and elsewhere; and it is combined, too, with the essential silence of the “world community” in the face of genocide and mass murder, especially of the despised — the niggers of the world, whether black and Jew or even, if the politics of it is right, Arab — the horrible truth becomes ever more clear:

warsaw_ghetto_josef_bloesche-edit1.jpg

“We” simply do not care.

Posted in Oppression, Past is prologue, Politics and Poker | 8 Comments »

And who exactly did invent spaghetti, anyway?

Posted by Ron Coleman on December 27, 2007

Lynn B:

Last week (or was it the week before?) presidential candidate Mike Huckabee published his much maligned foreign policy statement in Foreign Affairs magazine. In it, he attributed this quote to the 4th century Chinese military strategist, Sun-Tsu: “Keep your friends close and your enemies closer.”

Embarrassingly, SeeDubya at Junkyard Blog pointed out that the quote, while sometimes erroneously attributed to Sun-Tsu, actually appears to have originated (rather more recently) with Michael Corleone.

Yeah, but who among us doesn’t mix those two guys up all the time?!

Posted in Americana, Jocularity | 2 Comments »