Likelihood of Success

Michael Malone:

Other search companies are racing to come up with better paradigms that Google’s own. The company has also begun to bleed a lot of the brilliant talent — the latest being new business director Chris Sacca — that made the company great (and one of my rules is to always ignore the reasons key people leave, just count the feet). Google is also beginning to rush around into all sorts of unconnected new businesses — electrical power? — that suggest too much money and too little focus. It’s begun to execute new projects — the Android ‘Google Phone’ initiative for example — with a mediocrity far removed from its traditional brilliance. And, if what one reads on tech gossip sites like ValleyWag is true, then the top executives of Google are beginning to exhibit the kind of arrogance, indifference to common morality, and sheer decadence that always precedes a fall … not to mention a whole host of shareholder lawsuits and a visit from the Justice Department.

I wish I could be more optimistic about such a remarkable company. And certainly no company with the market presence of Google will simply go away. But right now I can’t give the company better than a 50 percent chance of escaping one of the biggest meltdowns in tech history.

Wow. Via Glenn.