Likelihood of Success

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Archive for the ‘Futurama’ Category

We don’t need no stinkin’ price signals

Posted by Ron Coleman on October 7, 2008

You thought Instapundit was a libertarian?  So did I!  At least on economics issues.  But check this:

BOB ZUBRIN: Obama’s Energy Plan a Mix of Bad and Good. “Moreover, there is one part of the Obama plan which is absolutely splendid, and that is his explicit promise to require flex fuel capability on all new cars sold in the USA by the end of his first term. This is indeed a potential real game changer, especially if the flex fuel standard is written to include not only automobile compatibility with gasoline and ethanol, but methanol as well.” You can make methanol from kudzu. ‘Nuff said.

Well, not ’nuff for me.  What happened to the free market?  Is it inconceivable that oil could be $40 a barrel at the end of Obama’s first term — and cars will either be X dollars more expensive because of this requirement, or perhaps won’t work right, or… whatever?

Whatever, indeed.  We see how easy it is to fix massive policy problems merely by legislating a solution, right?

Posted in Futurama, Gelt, Nuvo-Techno, Politics and Poker, Stragety | 1 Comment »

Current events in research…

Posted by Casey Tompkins on January 19, 2008

Instapundit recently linked to this article about new battery research.

Apparently some nano-tech research done at Stanford’s Department of Materials Science and Engineering indicates that it might be possible to increase the life of a rechargeable lithium-ion batteries by a tremendous amount. The article mentioned the possibility of reaching a 40-hour life.

That’s fantastic compared to current (excuse the pun) batteries. I agree with Professor Reynolds: “Bring it on!”

Something else occurs to me; is it possible to scale this technology up? Forty hours at 40 mph could give an electric car a 1600 mile range. Forty hours might be unrealistic (at least at first) but the possibilities are intriguing.

This post originally published at the Gantry Launchpad.

Posted in Futurama, Scientificus | 5 Comments »

More on the Facebook fantasy

Posted by Ron Coleman on November 15, 2007

As predicted: No one but Microsoft, evidently, was buying into the $15 billion valuation in the last “funding” round. Silicon Alley Insider:

The joke was indeed on Microsoft.

Fonzy says it’s even worse than that.

Posted in Futurama, Gelt, Nuvo-Techno | 1 Comment »

Floating toxic plastic garbage island twice the size of Texas?

Posted by Ron Coleman on October 22, 2007

Never even understood what a horrifying prospect that was until I was in college, when I met my first Texan.

Is there someone out there debunking this?  It sounds pretty bunky.  Please.

Posted in Futurama, Nuvo-Techno | 2 Comments »

Blogophrenology

Posted by Ron Coleman on October 7, 2007

“Blogger” Cory Doctorow utilizes scare quotes — “scientists” and “predict” — to mock a proposed anti-terrorism strategy:

Computer and behavioral scientists at the University at Buffalo are developing automated systems that track faces, voices, bodies and other biometrics against scientifically tested behavioral indicators to provide a numerical score of the likelihood that an individual may be about to commit a terrorist act. “The goal is to identify the perpetrator in a security setting before he or she has the chance to carry out the attack,” said Venu Govindaraju, Ph.D., professor of computer science and engineering in the UB School of Engineering and Applied Sciences. Govindaraju is co-principal investigator on the project with Mark G. Frank, Ph.D., associate professor of communication in the UB College of Arts and Sciences.

Doctorow “links” to this story, which treats the project very seriously, but he obviously “thinks” it’s a joke, comparing it to the discredited discipline of phrenology. He doesn’t explain why it’s like phrenology, but expects us to “get it” that because they are both based on the observation of physical characteristics which supposedly lead to a prediction of behavior, both must be equally lacking in validity.

This is called a “faulty analogy” or “sloppy journalism,” because, in fact, the story linked to suggests that this nascent science may in fact be very promising. Certainly no one is suggesting that anyone could be arrested or convicted on the basis of the observations, technology and algorithms that would be employed, but considering the cost of letting a person who is just a little better at hiding his intentions than Richard Ried get on a plane and hijack it to 70 Virgins Interplanetary Airport, it sounds like a good idea to try this technology.

Cory Doctorow, however, thinks it is a joke, and offensive to his libertarian instincts; and no explanation is necessary to explain why.

Perhaps the next time some airplane falls out of the sky because Cory Doctorow or the ACLU object to “profiling” and projects such as this are shouted down, Doctorow will “find” someone else to “blame.”

Posted in Futurama, Oppression | 37 Comments »

Ballmer bombs on social networking

Posted by Ron Coleman on October 2, 2007

Robert Scoble on how Microsoft still just does not get it:

Remember how dozens of competitors tried to get into the eBay space? (and still are?)Why aren’t they succeeding? Because eBay is NOT about the technology. It’s about the community and unless you have something that’ll convince the buyers and sellers all to switch all at one moment you’ll never be able to take eBay’s market away. Translation: it’s too late and eBay has huge defensibility around its business because people won’t move away from it even if you demonstrate 5x better technology.

Same with Facebook. I’m not moving away from it. Why? I have 5,000 reasons why (and another 500 already who want to be included in my Facebook network). Unless you can convince them all to move I’m not moving. This is why LinkedIn isn’t going to disappear anytime soon, even though I like Facebook’s approach a lot better….

Mr Ballmer also noted that sites such as Geocities, an online community that was bought for $3 billion by Yahoo! in 1999, at the height of the dot-com boom, “had most of what Facebook has.”

Oh, boy. No way, no how.

First of all, I never joined Geocities. It never had utility for me. It was a place to build free Web sites. I found it had all the disadvantages to me that MySpace has and NONE of the advantages of Facebook. It was NOT a social network that exerted the kind of social pressure on me to join the way that Facebook did. I tried to ignore Facebook for years. Same with MySpace. But people I kept meeting kept begging me to join. Kevin Rose, when we had dinner, told me I was blowing it by not being on Facebook. That NEVER happened with Geocities.

Bingo, and ditto on LinkedIn, too. This article is good; read all of it!

Posted in Futurama, Nuvo-Techno | Leave a Comment »

Social networking, just right

Posted by Ron Coleman on September 23, 2007

I was marking up this article in The Atlantic right on the Lexington Avenue bus, in front of everyone, that’s how well author Michael Hirschorn echoes my sentiments about Facebook. You don’t understand social networking? You will if you read this article. Hirschorn particularly hits the nail on the head in his descriptions, by contradistinction, of the anarchistic MySpace and the stiff LinkedIn. Excerpts:

The catchall term social media encompasses Web applications that allow individuals to create their own pages—filled with postings, photos, video, and portable applications generally called “widgets”—and interact with other users. The theory is that these networks will create a virtual environment in which like-minded people can find one another. In practice, as with Goldi­locks and the porridge, the gruel tends to be too hot or too cold. On MySpace, the flood of pseudo-buddies and marketing come-ons disguised as offers of friendship quickly becomes suffocating. Too hot. On a business – networking site like LinkedIn, the very nature of the concept becomes self-defeating: The subset of people you want to schmooze with and who want to schmooze with you is simply too small, and too difficult to separate from the much larger group of people you are trying to avoid or who are trying to avoid you. Too cold.

Facebook is getting the temperature just right, and in the process has been able to give social media real social capital. . . .

Openness and messiness are indeed the characteristics that make the Web so different from other forms of media, if indeed the Web can be called “media” at all. But it has always been the push-me/pull-you between order and disorder that has made the Internet more than merely a vast agglomeration of stuff. . . .

Facebook [] is imposing the right limits—it’s almost New Victorian in that regard. It is a connection engine that successfully mirrors how most of us want to live our lives. (Most people live in suburbs for a reason.) If the overall trend on the Internet is the individual user’s loss of control as corporations make money off information you unwittingly provide, Facebook is offering a way to get some of that control back.

Having said all that, I don’t spend all that much time on Facebook. The average age of members still seems to be in the “young enough to be my child” category, though everyone agrees it’s heading up fast. As Hirschorn points out, what makes the website so promising is that you can build your own networks within the overall network along any number of axes you choose, and make them open, closed, secret or, if you’re tech-savvy enough, in between. It’s good stuff — even if you don’t waste all your time on it.

Posted in Blogophilia, Futurama, Nuvo-Techno | 2 Comments »

World to end; employers hit hardest

Posted by Ron Coleman on August 20, 2007

It’s that time again — now it’s Facebook that’s bringing on the End Days:

Internet security company SurfControl looked at the phenomenon, and found Australian workers who keep a close watch on their Facebook profile page were costing their employers up to A$5 billion ($4 billion) a year.

Some people will believe anything. Look out for the magic “up to” — always a hint that you’re dealing with very soft numbers. In any event, these studies are idiotic, and always lacking in context. What is the “cost” of bathroom breaks across an entire national economy? Coffee? Waiting for the elevator?

That doesn’t mean I would want my employees hanging out endlessly on Facebook, or anywhere else. But spare us the nonsense, SurfControl.

Oh, and what does that company sell? Software to control and monitor… Internet use.

Posted in Futurama, Gelt | 4 Comments »

All journalism, all the time

Posted by Ron Coleman on July 18, 2007

Dan Riehl notes a picture taken of the picture takers at today’s Grand Central Station explosion — which, these days, is everyone: “[W]hat caught my eye via Drudge was this picture. Everyone is taking video, or snapping photos with their cell phones. I imagine they easily outnumber the journalists doing the same.” (HT to IP.)

Yes, we’re all on board — journalism is something you do, not something you “are,” i.e., not a privileged caste. True. And for my part, I love my Blackberry Pearl with its camera.

But I’m not sure I love this development from the point of view of being people, as opposed to being journalists, all the time. I used to be an avid amateur photographer — yearbook editor, the whole thing. Always with the camera. Later on I realized that this was a pretty geeky way to go through life, at least as a teenager (think “AV club”). When I started having a family, I made a conscious decision not to get a video camera. Sometimes when I see the little snippets of movin’ pitchers with my kids on them from when they were little, I wonder whether I made a mistake. But I had decided that I didn’t want to experience videos of my experiences at the expense of the experiences themselves. As a photo-bug I realized I was not living in the moment, ever; I was living in anticipation of how the pictures of the moment would look.

Okay, now this was not a fun or a warm or a happy moment — it was an explosion. Someone was killed, unfortunately. But in general, I feel the reality of life slipping away in favor of not only the virtual, but the digital or, perhaps, the digitized. Do we all really have to be journalists, all the time?

UPDATE: Links to this from Glenn Reynolds and Ed Driscoll — always nice of a late Wednesday night, and my first hookup with Ed — yet I can’t help but think they didn’t either of them read the whole piece!  They both elided right past a classic, “It is true … but” throwaway acknowledgment formula used all the time to make a completely opposite point — by journalists.

Posted in Futurama, Medialites | 5 Comments »

Facebook changing a paradigm

Posted by Ron Coleman on May 24, 2007

Big news:

Facebook may turn out to be a lot more important than any of us thought. It has just launched a major change in its strategy that will transform its role in the Internet ecosystem and could create a raft of new opportunities for companies of all sizes.No longer will Facebook consider itself merely another social network. Instead it is becoming a technology platform on which anyone can build applications for social computing. Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg invited me to spend time with executives of Facebook and partner companies in advance of the announcement.

Brilliant.  As the oldest member of Facebook (regardless of date of birth, believe me, I am the oldest) I am very impressed.

Posted in Futurama, Nuvo-Techno | Leave a Comment »