Likelihood of Success

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Archive for the ‘Gelt’ Category

Career crib death

Posted by Ron Coleman on May 11, 2007

David Lat at Abovethelaw.com breathlessly — and who can blame him? — chronicles the frenzy of cash-engorged white-shoe law firms bidding against each other for the privilege of hiring former law clerks for federal judges. Clerks’ hides are valued highly because by virtue of securing that clerkship, they’ve demonstrated high academic achievement, and after a year or two writing a judge’s opinions and observing the comings and goings in the federal courts, they’re presumed to be super-primed for big-time law in terms of familiarity with procedure, protocol, and enhanced judgment and maturity. They also add to a law firm’s prestige and, to some extent, probably can’t hurt their relationship with judges, either.

Now David’s site reports, in an item by Laurie Lin following up on a report in DC’s Legal Times, about how just how questionable all those assumptions are:

Two current clerks in Judge A. Raymond Randolph’s chambers recently circulated a book proposal on habeas corpus and the war on terror, a topic about which they claimed to have some expertise — as a result of the high-profile cases to which they currently have access in Randolph’s chambers! . . .

It was a connection the two clerks flaunted, noting that they brought a “unique perspective” to edit submissions because “they have spent a year in the legal trenches” as clerks on the D.C. Circuit “during a year that saw several landmark detention decisions likely to end up before the Supreme Court.”

They didn’t mention, presumably, that Judge Randolph’s decisions were overturned. But that’s okay — they’ve already overturned their careers and will have plenty of time to refine their book proposals.

I don’t mean to wallow in their unfortunate situations. But the air is getting mighty thin among elites in the legal profession. It’s not surprising the lack of oxygen is taking its toll.

Posted in Gelt, Sisyphus | Leave a Comment »

A new low in deep-sea graverobbing

Posted by Ron Coleman on April 13, 2007

Watches made from the Titanic. Titanically tasteless — as its intended audience likes it, of course.

Posted in Americana, Gelt | 1 Comment »

Underwriting by untermenschen

Posted by Ron Coleman on April 1, 2007

Chubb recently refused to insure a New Jersey law firm because it has a blog.

This is not surprising. What’s largely going on, I can tell you from experience, is that small law firms are just plain finding it impossible to get malpractice coverage. It was the straw that broke the camel’s back for my old law firm. Despite being admitted since 1989 and never having a claim, plus, of course, all my marvelous professional qualities — a longstanding AV rating, top schools, a grip like a plumber — I could not get more than one quote for malpractice insurance for my five-lawyer shop, even though once a year half a dozen prospective insurers would bombard me with faxes and mailings seeking my business. To legal malpractice underwriters, intellectual property — and they stupidly see trademark, copyright and patents are all the same thing — is a dirty word. The one policy I could get was for an annual premium of $25,000. If you’re smaller than being able to afford that, and do anything remotely interesting, they don’t want your business.

In this case the blog was really just an excuse, but is certainly is a troubling precedent.

Chubb, of course, would not return calls to the reporter from the New Jersey Law Journal who was inquiring about its idiotic decision. All it would say to the law firm was, “this is not a risk [we] are interested in undertaking.”

This level of discourse typifies the arrogance of insurance companies who, I must admit, I spent a significant part of my career suing on behalf of insureds. Now, Chubb and other insurance companies don’t owe coverage to anyone. On the other hand, the market for professional malpractice insurance is not even remotely comparable to free enterprise. It is mandated for most firms, and, of course, being insurance carriers, basically the entire way they do business is regulated.

The result is the erection of barriers to entry, or to remaining in the field, for newcomers and small players. Blogs make an easy target, especially for people who don’t have them or don’t get them. Hat tip to Bizzy Blog.

Posted in Gelt, Lex scripta | Leave a Comment »

TechCrunch acquires … er, oh …

Posted by Ron Coleman on March 31, 2007

TechCrunch announces that it’s acquired a website whose name is not safe for work… or home… a name we haven’t heard about since those halcyon days after the music died at the end of the first Dot Com boom.

I love the whole concept of arbitraging failure.

UPDATE:  April Fools?  Well, if you can do them in March, they are certainly more effective!

Posted in Gelt, Nuvo-Techno | Leave a Comment »

Megalaw firm shuts down

Posted by Ron Coleman on March 30, 2007

Dallas-based Jenkins & Gilchrist is winding down operations. That’s a firm that employed 600 lawyers at its height. Unfortunately they employed a large number of them at creating illegal tax shelters.

Posted in Americana, Gelt, Lex scripta | Leave a Comment »

Pay Per Post — is it all about quality?

Posted by Ron Coleman on March 17, 2007

Jason Calacanis, writing in the context of tech blogging, rejects the view that Pay Per Post is a “necessary evil” for those who can’t hope to attract ad dollars to their blogs because they believe there’s no longer opportunity to break through to the “A-List” of bloggers:

The PayPerIdiots are trying to make their DECEPTIVE service into a class war–so, so obvious guys. There is a reason why you guys came up with such a dumb service, and your arguments prove exactly how unintelligent you are. It’s ***not*** a class war, it’s an ***integrity*** war. If you want to have no integrity do covert marketing with PayPerPost, if you want to have integrity don’t–but let’s not make this about the “haves and have nots”–that’s just dumb.

I don’t agree (and I’m not alone).  There are two things here:  Whether there is an “A-List,” and whether Pay Per Post is an answer to those who despair of ever joining it.

I do think Calacanis is right that quality ultimately will tell, in terms of the Pay Per Post issue.  I explain that more below.  But I think it’s naive to say there are not existing cliques in the blogosphere who hold the keys to success, and that there are a lot of established players who aren’t all that good or all that consistent. This is to be expected in any medium as it matures.

And as to pay-per-post, well, I wrote this in the New Jersey Law Journal earlier this year. It’s a little clunky because it was not written on a blog (I’ve added a couple of links, but couldn’t link in the column) and because it’s for a non-blog-savvy audience:

Op-ed
Hands Off Blogs
Mandatory disclosure of payment to bloggers runs counter to free expression


New Jersey Law Journal
January 26, 2007

No one is free from bias of some sort or another, especially people who spend their time (paid or otherwise) writing opinions – whether in daily newspaper columns, legal newspapers or blogs, the newest, most exciting and most democratic medium of expression in the real and virtual worlds.

Opinion writers are understood by axiom to have an opinion; and it is just as axiomatic that opinions can be “negotiable” in all sorts of ways, overt and subtle.

Yet in the emerging world of blog publishing, there is a troubling trend toward mandatory disclosure of one kind of bias – the kind directly attributable to payment of material compensation to a blogger addressed specifically in a Dec.7 Federal Trade Commission informal opinion involving a company called PayPerPost Inc. – that is misguided, contrary to free speech principles and a threat to the growth of a dynamic economic and cultural phenomenon.

Almost two years ago, the blogosphere – the community, or group of communities, of ardent blog writers, commentators and readers – hiccupped with the discovery that a top liberal blogger, Markos Moulitsas Zúniga, of the DailyKos.com blog, a vocal supporter of the Howard Dean campaign during the 2004 election, had been a paid consultant to Dean. The blogosphere erupted with that characteristically exaggerated self-importance bloggers love to show in a debate over whether, how and what had been disclosed. Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in Blogophilia, Gelt | 1 Comment »

You mean after the attorneys buy new houses?

Posted by Ron Coleman on March 15, 2007

Robert Scoble asks, “What happens after Google loses?”:

Viacom wants to play “force folks to play on our turf.” Does the Internet reward that kind of behavior?

It hasn’t in the past. PodTech tried that strategy. To watch my videos you used to have to go to PodTech. Then in January we let go a little bit of our controlling attitude and made a player that you can embed on your own site. What happened?

Traffic tripled.

So, if I were a smart content guy (hint, I’m not) I’d be opening my video archives and saying “post them where you want.”

If I were even smarter I’d say “cut them up, edit them, mash them, do what you want with them.” I’m not that smart either.

And, if I really were blessed with a brain like Douglas Engelbart’s I’d make video for where the big audiences are (hint: it’s YouTube, StumbleUpon, Digg, Flickr, Blogs, and search engines like Google/Yahoo/Live).

I’m not that smart, but other people in this industry are.

Does the technology stream really flow into the revenue stream, though? I understand that YouTube made a lot of money — well, by selling itself; I am not sure I understand how it actually makes money as a business — but I haven’t heard of too many people getting too rich by uploading their content onto YouTube. Have you?

Cross posted on Likelihood of Confusion, where I addressed the Viacom-Google lawsuit here.

Posted in Futurama, Gelt, Nuvo-Techno | Leave a Comment »

Real estate burp?

Posted by Ron Coleman on March 10, 2007

The New York Times says we’ve hit the ceiling of spiraling high-end real estate prices:

Consumers are rejecting any projects that involve developers turning existing hotel units into condominiums because the consumers fear that they could lose their deposits if these projects are never converted.

Instead, Wall Street bankers, baby boomers and Europeans are more often snapping up condominiums from developers with projects that are being built from the ground up.

“The market is separating the contenders from the pretenders,” Mr. Semilof said. “The consumer is not buying projects where they sell units and then do the conversions. People are willing to put money where they know where the building is going to be built.”

In other words, they’re pulling back from involvement in what was essentially absurd speculation. Is this the sign of a beginning of the end of the real estate boom? Or — more likely, I would think — a sign that a boom need not be a bubble?

Posted in Gelt | 2 Comments »

Oil’s well

Posted by Ron Coleman on March 7, 2007

GusherTigerHawk is impressed that even the New York Times admits that the oft-repeated, largely political trope that “oil production has already peaked” is certainly baloney. Tim Blair calls its adherents “abundance denialists” (cleverly paralleling Ellen Goodman).

All you had to do was read anything by Julian Simon back when we were in college to know what rubbish all the “we’re running out! we’re running out” business is. It was guys like Simon who inspired me to major in economics — a discipline founded on dismally mistaken premises about scarcity, but which overcame its humble beginnings and became remarkably good at modeling, understanding and predicting how stuff we need comes to the market and why.

But TigerHawk and Blair are on the money about the cultural point: When even the Times writes the obituary of an exercise in sloppy liberal economics, that well has for sure run dry.

IOWAHAWK Bumper sticker

Posted in Gelt, Medialites | 3 Comments »

Wait for it…

Posted by David M. Nieporent on March 5, 2007

Ron’s post below about marriage as a Bourgeois luxury called to my mind these two recent stories from the Cato Institute’s Cato-at-liberty blog. The first entry, quoting a Tech Central Station column from last week, discusses some issues related to income inequality in the United States:

The picture of an actual millionaire is dramatically less glamorous than commonly-held visions of exclusive neighborhoods, expensive clothes and colorful social lives. In his 1996 book The Millionaire Next Door, co-authored with Dr. William Danko, Dr. Stanley revealed that the typical millionaire spent less than $400 on their most expensive suit, and only about 1% spent more than $2,800. Only one in ten millionaires had ever spent more than $300 on a pair of shoes. Most millionaires pay a few hundred dollars or less for their watch, and $30,000 or less for their main motor vehicle. They have been married to the same person most of their adult lives.The wealthy are conspicuous for their lack of consumption: “What are three words that profile the affluent? FRUGAL FRUGAL FRUGAL”. The book is full of startling individual cases: the millionaire who refused the gift of a Rolls Royce because he couldn’t imagine driving up in one to eat at the crummy restaurants he prefers, or throw caught fish in the back seat; the wife who, after her husband gave her $8 million in stocks, returned at once to clipping the 25 cent grocery coupons from her newspaper.

This is no coincidence. It is not that most millionaires are in the habit of being frugal despite their wealth: it is that they are so wealthy because they are in the habit of living so frugally. The plentiful residual income goes into savings and investments that are left to grow for decades.

The second entry, from last month, discusses a recent study regarding income inequality in the Third World:

The Economist reports on an interesting new study showing that members of a Bolivian tribe who understood the value of deferred gratification also experienced higher income gains:

In short, how we choose to live our lives is not merely a question of personal preference; our decisions have long term consequences, both in the personal and financial realms. The unifying issue here is delayed gratification.

I do need to disagree with Ron in one area; in Ron’s comments over at Dean’s World, he tries to draw a neat line between conservatives on the one hand and “liberals and libertarians” on the other. He writes:

Liberals and libertarians aren’t bothered by these things because they believe there is no morality other than when your swinging fist finally brains me; liberals add in the “moral” principle that people who have less have a “moral” right to take it from people who have more. They don’t believe that issues of dignity and social cohesion can properly be inferred from how people look, act and talk, or, in many cases, they consider cohesion “oppresive” even if they end up decrying “alienation” and glass ceilings.

We libertarians are not so easily categorized at this; we span a wide spectrum. It is true that there are some libertarians who are libertine in nature, who believe that how we behave is irrelevant as long as we are not assaulting others. But others of us are more conservative (with a small ‘c’) than that; we recognize that there is more to the evaluation of behavior than whether fist meets skull.

We all agree that the government should not — and for the most part cannot — legislate in these areas, but that does not mean we reject the notion that some behaviors are more reasonable, more productive, more beneficial than others. Having opinions is not the same as enforcing them at gunpoint. (Which I realize Ron has not proposed, either.)

Posted in Gelt, Politics and Poker | 3 Comments »