Likelihood of Success

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Archive for the ‘Stragety’ Category

Ehud Olmert, zombie of Zionism

Posted by Ron Coleman on January 13, 2008

Jonathan Rosenblum:

After the failed Camp David summit of 2000, George Will pronounced then prime minister Ehud Barak “perhaps the most calamitous leader any democracy has ever had” for the way he had succeeded in “delegitimizing all previous [Israeli] positions….”By that standard, our current Ehud is worse.

Read the rest here.

Posted in Orient, Past is prologue, Stragety | 7 Comments »

On your mind, on your blog, on your slide rule

Posted by Ron Coleman on January 9, 2008

Jonathan Gewirtz at Chicago Boyz writes about the “Perfect [Internet] Storm.” The whole thing should be read, but I was struck by this opening sentence:

A fascinating post by Wretchard on the dynamics of public events in the Internet age, and on the ways in which such events are now subject to quantitative analysis of the type that has previously been reserved for quantum systems and securities markets[.]

Not quite, I think. As Glenn Reynolds recently pointed out in an aside, there is plenty of reason not to be overenthusiastic about the proposition that the Web provides “razor-precise metrics.” Anyone who has a blog knows this, and for a guy with that big of a sample size in terms of readership, demographics, etc. to remind us of it is instructive.

The post at Chicago Boyz actually veers off in a somewhat different direction. But it’s worth considering this:  The phenomenon described there, which distinguishes between what people will say in virtual life versus and what they will publicly say in real life, is certainly complicated by what we may think they’re saying online and what we deduce that means in real life.

In fact, it’s only a matter of time before some massive, steam-driven, state-of-the-art “quantitative analysis” predicts or describes some extraordinary Internet phenomenon and turns out to be dead wrong. Considering that this is the presidential election season, that time could come very soon.

Don’t be fooled by predictions and analyses just because there are integers.

Posted in Nuvo-Techno, Scientificus, Stragety | 7 Comments »

Wow.

Posted by Ron Coleman on January 3, 2008

Michael Malone:apples.jpg

Other search companies are racing to come up with better paradigms that Google’s own. The company has also begun to bleed a lot of the brilliant talent — the latest being new business director Chris Sacca — that made the company great (and one of my rules is to always ignore the reasons key people leave, just count the feet). Google is also beginning to rush around into all sorts of unconnected new businesses — electrical power? — that suggest too much money and too little focus. It’s begun to execute new projects — the Android ‘Google Phone’ initiative for example — with a mediocrity far removed from its traditional brilliance. And, if what one reads on tech gossip sites like ValleyWag is true, then the top executives of Google are beginning to exhibit the kind of arrogance, indifference to common morality, and sheer decadence that always precedes a fall … not to mention a whole host of shareholder lawsuits and a visit from the Justice Department.

I wish I could be more optimistic about such a remarkable company. And certainly no company with the market presence of Google will simply go away. But right now I can’t give the company better than a 50 percent chance of escaping one of the biggest meltdowns in tech history.

Wow. Via Glenn.

Posted in Gelt, Stragety | 2 Comments »

Is our holiday goose cooked?

Posted by Ron Coleman on December 25, 2007

Jihad Watch:

Here, courtesy Ron Paul and John Stossel, is a Christmas Eve repast of common but false assumptions about the global jihad and what we can do about it: “Ron Paul on War,” by John Stossel.

Read it!

Posted in Orient, Stragety | Leave a Comment »

Advantage: Iran

Posted by Ron Coleman on December 24, 2007

Instapundit:

THIS SOUNDS ABOUT RIGHT: “If a nuclear war between Israel and Iran were to break out 16-20 million Iranians would lose their lives – as opposed to 200,000-800,000 Israelis, according to a report recently published by the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.”

I actually don’t believe the hype suggesting that the Iranians would be willing to “absorb” casualties of that magnitude in order to achieve their supposedly insane desire to incinerate the Jews.   God forbid regarding the whole thing.

But I will say this:  Losses of that magnitude to Israel would be relatively more catastrophic to the Jewish state, both because of Israel’s much smaller population (there are about 71 million Iranians and 7 million Israelis) and the relative paucity of high-value targets in Iran (i.e., infrastructure) compared to Israel.

On the other hand, ultimately it seems from that article that Israel maintains a considerable deterrent — at least technologically.  Will it in ten years?  Will it care enough about itself, have enough understanding of its reason for being, to will survival?

Posted in Orient, Stragety | 1 Comment »

Putinism

Posted by Ron Coleman on December 23, 2007

Zenpundit writes at Chicago Boyz about Retro-Authoritarianism in Russia:

After periods of disorder, want or uncertainty there have always been many people who are all too willing to trade liberty for economic security.

Whenever authoritarianism has the added attraction of marshaling competence and cultural values behind its standard, democrats should beware.

I’ve been being ‘ware for a while now.

Posted in Euroids, Past is prologue, Stragety | 2 Comments »

Spiraling into control

Posted by Ron Coleman on December 11, 2007

Dave Price at Dean’s World:

The situation is, er, spiraling into control, or something.

As a result, violence has dropped considerably since June and there have been signs that Baghdad is becoming less chaotic. U.S. casualties have fallen from 101 in June to 37 in November, according to an AP count, and Gen. David Petraeus, the top U.S. commander in the country, says there has been a 60 percent decline in violence over the past half year.

Of course, there are numerous caveats given, such as:

That is a rarity in what has been a relentlessly unpopular war.

Long forgotten are the 80% approval ratings in 2003, and the press’ Fake News Division is hard at work making sure they never return.

Posted in Medialites, Orient, Sisyphus, Stragety | Leave a Comment »

Iraq and the Muslims

Posted by Ron Coleman on December 2, 2007

It’s easy enough to be horrified with what the more severe Muslim regimes are doing to humans trying to just live these days. Read the rest at Right Wing News.

Posted in Orient, Stragety | Leave a Comment »

What is to be done?

Posted by Ron Coleman on November 19, 2007

Christopher Hitchens (via Instapundit):

“[T]he cabinet,” according to the Nov. 18 New York Times, “has sent legislation to the Parliament softening the de-Baathification law that had prevented former Baathists’ working in government jobs.” I wonder how many people, reading that ordinary sentence about “the cabinet” and “the Parliament,” as reported also in independent Iraqi media, have any idea what it means when compared with the insane proceedings of the totalitarian abattoir state that was Iraq until 2003.

Now juxtapose that with this Instapundit link:

NOT EXACTLY POSITIVE COVERAGE FROM THE NEW YORK TIMES:

Democrats in Congress failed once again Friday to shift President Bush’s war strategy in Iraq, but insisted that they would not let up. Their explanation for their latest foiled effort seemed to boil down to a simple question: “What else are we supposed to do?”

This is the same party whose legislative leader said, referring to Ronald Reagan, “The evil is in the White House” when he faced down Stalinism’s heirs. Let me give you the whole quote from the now mistily-remembered Tip O’Neill:

The evil is in the White House at the present time. And that evil is a man who has no care and no concern for the working class of America and the future generations of America, and who likes to ride a horse. He’s cold. He’s mean. He’s got ice water for blood.

Talk about ice water. The Democratic leadership, fearing their left flank, actually want to retreat, not when we’re losing, but when we’re winning — literally to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory and to turn over an entire country to an otherwise defeated “totalitarian abattoir state” — as we’ve done before.

“What else are we supposed to do?”

Cross-posted on Right Wing News.

Posted in Oppression, Orient, Stragety | 2 Comments »

Our ugly friends, the Saudis

Posted by Ron Coleman on November 18, 2007

What does a small-c-conservative Jew do with the Saudis?

Their latest exercise (or perhaps merely their latest one to draw worldwide attention) in medieval brutality, in which a female rape victim has been “sentenced” for her “crime” (see here for a more precise explanation of what really happened) is already well known on the Web. This regime is not ready for prime time, from the civilization point of view.

Where does that leave us?

Time out, here: By “us” I mean conservatives. And by conservatives, I mean conservatives who are sympathetic to the desire of Jewish inhabitants of the State of Israel not to be murdered. I thus read out of the movement antisemitic paleoconservatives such as Patrick Buchanan; yet I am not a neoconservative or even a Zionist either — just a politically conservative Jew who observes that conservatives are the best political friends of Jews in this country and in Israel.

Now, I find the most strident anti-Saudi voices are not Jewish, or Israeli. This is despite the fact that most of those voices, such as that of my friend Mary Madigan, are fabulously pro-Israel. Many neoconservatives, such as Daniel Pipes, sing much the same tune, and other conservatives, such as Ivan Eland of the Cato Institute, urge only a nominally more “balanced” approach that focuses entirely on the Kingdom’s tyrannical nature — the criticism of neocons being not their blindness to the strategic value of the Saudi relationship but rather their supposed oversensitivity on the importance of oil prices.

The United States should take a middle ground between the confrontational approach championed by neoconservatives and the Bush administration’s policy of appeasing the Saudi regime. The Saudi government is a medieval, despotic regime with an abysmal human rights record on a par with Iraq’s. The United States should withdraw political support from the regime and withdraw the U.S. military forces stationed on Saudi territory. The United States should not pull any diplomatic punches in pressuring the Saudi monarchy on its poor human rights record, its programs to acquire weapons of mass destruction, and its indirect support for terrorism.

Essentially, like the authoritarian “rogue states” (Iraq, Iran, Syria, Libya, Sudan, Cuba and North Korea), Saudi Arabia should be treated with suspicion, not friendship. At the same time, it should not be targeted for U.S. military attacks unless it is found directly culpable in sponsoring a terrorist attack against a U.S. target.

Putting Saudi Arabia essentially along the Axis of Evil is not a “middle ground,” however, if there is to be any hope of the relationship yielding strategic advantage for the U.S. By and large, conservative opinion in this country wants the Bush Administration to be tougher on the Saudis; and, contrary to what would be predicted by left wing and nativist fantasies about the “Zionist lobby,” this consensus by and large ignores what the primary victims of Islamist terrorism thing about Saudi Arabia’s role in the game: The Israelis, who recognize that Saudi Arabia is probably their last, best hope for a major Arab power that could broker some version of a Mideast “arrangement” that could perhaps give Israel decades more time to wait out some form of evolution in the Arab world away from violence and toward what we in the west regard as civilization — Israeli’s only long-term hope for survival from external threats.

There is no question that, as much as anyone else, the Saudis — by promoting the extremist Wahabi version of Islam — have done more to inflame Muslims to murderous violence than any other group, governmental or otherwise. But it is an error to conflate “the Saudis” into one homogeneous entity with only one agenda, except to the extent that that agenda is the maintenance of their continued power and influence. That bullet point on their “to do” list remains a key one, and that is why it is all but official Saudi policy that the State of Israel is a political and historical reality. That’s why the Israelis were ahead of many of their strongest supporters, who instinctively reject American military support of the Kingdom, and explicitly stated their support of a major U.S. arms sale to the Saudis last summer.

Saudi Arabia is a terrible place to live, but virtually none of us live there. Unlike Saddam Hussein’s Iraq, it is neither warlike in the traditional sense nor genocidal. What it once had in common with Saddam, its support of international terrorism, is clearly a policy that is changing. That does not mean we can expect the House of Saud to hand over its own members who have been supporting, and undoubtedly continue to support, our worst terrorist enemies, but it does mean that, unlike Saddam, there is a toehold of influence that the U.S. has over that process. What other powerful friends — with, or without scare quotes — does the U.S. have in the Arab Mideast?

Cross-posted on Right Wing News.

Posted in Oppression, Orient, Stragety | 3 Comments »