Likelihood of Success

Ron Coleman’s pretty good blog

Looks like he’ll eat whatever he darn wants to

Posted by Ron Coleman on March 6, 2007

Drudge reports: PETA TO AL GORE: YOU CAN’T BE A MEAT-EATING ENVIRONMENTALIST

UPDATE: Mary Madigan — “Talk about consuming planetary resources.” Meanwhile Frank J. raises related questions of hippocrisy.

Posted in Jocularity, Politics and Poker | 2 Comments »

Jihad What?

Posted by Ron Coleman on March 6, 2007

Robert Spencer was nice enough to invite me to write for Jihad Watch, as he recently acknowledged. As he puts it:

Anyway, a good many good writers jumped out of Esmay’s ideological gulag at that point, including Ron Coleman of LikelihoodofConfusion.com (who tells me that he is looking for a “home” for general-interest blogging; I invited him to write here but he politely declined my invitation because he is not primarily focused on the jihad …)

I’m not just unfocused on it. I’m downright befuddled by it.

Believe me, I’m (intellectually, not emotionally) scared of “the Jihad,” or whatever you may want to call the Suicide Belt Boys. I’d be stupid not to be. Dean Esmay does not argue “we have nothing to be afraid of” — far from it. Dean does, however, have his own preferences in terms of nomenclature, which is evidently quite a big deal. Fine. On the other hand, before 9/11 I remember having a perfectly civil, and quite interesting, discussion about GOP outreach to conservative Muslims with Grover Norquist, who by all indications is now pretty much “discredited.” It seemed like a good idea at the time.

On the other hand I don’t know what to make of this article in Jihad Watch on an exchange with Dinesh D’Souza which I thought would clarify everything, but most assuredly does not:

D’SOUZA: One of the problems here is a little bit of paranoia. These guys, Spencer, Serge, have been running around basically saying I am trying to silence them, whereas all I am doing is disagreeing with them.

Caught making an indefensible point, D’Souza lies about it. In his book, this is exactly what he says: “In order to build alliances with traditional Muslims, the right must take three critical steps. First, stop attacking Islam. Conservatives have to cease blaming Islam for the behavior of the radical Muslims. Recently the right has produced a spate of Islamophobic tracts with titles like Islam Unveiled [by Spencer], Sword of the Prophet [by Trifkovic], and The Myth of Islamic Tolerance [by Spencer]. There is probably no better way to repel traditional Muslims, and push them into the radical camp, than to attack their religion and their prophet.”

Okay, so I don’t understand how this is “trying to silence” anyone. Saying “shut up, you’re doing something stupid” is not “trying to silence” someone. (This is trying to silence someone.) It’s telling them — this is rhetoric — “you should not say what you’re saying if you want to come to an accomodation.”

I don’t agree with D’Souza. But I don’t think what he’s saying is what Robert says he is. Now, that also doesn’t mean Robert’s wrong about D’Souza. This — from that same posting — is truly damning:

HENNEN: OK, one at a time here; your question for Dinesh, Serge, is?

TRIFKOVIC: In what order are the Suras arranged in the Kuran?

D’SOUZA: [long silence] I really don’t know what you mean by that. When you say “in what order” then… err… [pause] there…

TRIFKOVIC: … an interlocutor who tries to pass authoritative judgments on the subject is refusing to tell me how are the Suras and the verses of the Kuran arranged. They happen to be arranged by SIZE, from short to long!

Well, that sure seems like something you better know before you write a book about Islam, isn’t it? I think Robert’s got plenty to work with here without stretching about being “silenced” by D’Souza.

But at the end of the day, you can see why I don’t want to make this “my topic.” I’ve gone through about half a dozen tractates of the Talmud from beginning to end and I don’t even really know what’s in them. Forget it. My main reaction to radical Islam is to stay out of its way.

Posted in Faith and Works, Orient | 7 Comments »

AT&T technician Mark Klein decides U.S. policy

Posted by Ron Coleman on March 6, 2007

It’s hardly even debatable whether or not telephone technicians should unilaterally — well, along with our elected representatives in the media, of course — decide how the U.S. should go about protecting itself from terrorism, foreign and domestic, is it? ABC’s The Blotter explains how an AT&T technician, Mark Klein, took the inside story of the NSA monitoring program to the LA Times, which couldn’t “follow” his technical explanation of the horrors he had seen. He then contacted the New York Times, which has smarter editors, and they figured it out and broke the story.

Mildly interesting. Far more interesting to me is the concept that this zhlub — see the picture on the ABC link — took it upon himself to decide, contrary to all logic and common sense, that “what he knows won’t help terrorists”:

“The only people that are being kept in the dark is the American people who are being misled and not realizing, not being told that their private information, that their liberties are being destroyed and tramped on,” he said.

So Klein, disturbed by what he saw — knowing nothing, not a thing, about anything other than what he saw, in terms of what policies were being implemented and why — didn’t contact law enforcement, or an attorney, or his supervisors, or make any attempt to keep the lid on something that maybe, possibly, was bigger than his understanding as an AT&T wire-monkey while he at least increased that understanding.

Mark Klein, AT&T technician, made the executive decision to go to the papers “to blow the whistle on what he calls ‘an illegal and Orwellian project.'”

He may be right. I doubt it, and so do a number of people in a lot better position to know. So he may very well be wrong. And what efforts did Mark Klein, AT&T technician, make to avoid screwing up something much bigger than Mark Klein if he was wrong? From what I can see, none.

America, meet your unelected, unappointed ombudsman of national policy: Mark Klein, AT&T technician. (Hat tip to Boing Boing.)

Posted in Lex scripta, Politics and Poker | 1 Comment »

Mary Madigan joins the wets

Posted by Ron Coleman on March 6, 2007

Or are we the dries? Either way, Mary engages the ultimate lie — “Time to step down, to spend more time with my family…” –– tongue all a-cheek, of course, and joins the quitters of Dean’s World (which welcomed this blog royally this morning by the way). You can still find her at Exit Zero.

Posted in Blogophilia | Leave a Comment »

Libby convicted; Cheney Vice President

Posted by Ron Coleman on March 6, 2007

My Way News – Libby Found Guilty in CIA Leak Trial.

Just in case you happened to click here just this second instead of anywhere else on the Internet. Roundups all over the place. I like this one. But this one has the funniest excerpt / link:

Mark Daniels wonders if Dick Cheney will resign.

How that could be conveyed with a straight face is a wonder! They never learn: Cheney will survive us all.

Posted in Lex scripta, Politics and Poker | Leave a Comment »

Russia contains multitudes on strategic defense

Posted by Ron Coleman on March 6, 2007

Containing multitudes

Yahoo! News reports that a top Russian officer claims, “Russia’s bomber force would have no trouble destroying planned US missile defense sites in Europe, its head said Monday as the country’s security council warned of new policies to counter NATO.” The quote:

“Since the components of the anti-missile defence system are weakly protected, all types of our aircraft are capable of using electronic countermeasures against them and physically destroying them,” Interfax news agency quoted Lieutenant General Igor Khvorov as saying.

Well, of course he says that. Strategic defense, and countermeasures to it, are very much a mind game — you know, “strategic”? — and it costs Ivan nothing to put doubt into the minds of policymakers and commanders about the efficacy of a potentially devastating shift in the balance of power.

The funny part is this:

The Kremlin has fiercely protested US plans to install an anti-missile system in Poland and the Czech Republic.

I see. “It doesn’t really work. It doesn’t affect us. Thanks for wasting your money on it. Ha, what suckers. Go ahead. Make my day.

“HOW DARE YOU!”

So given that the “How dare you” is basically an admission that in fact Russia is quite upset about this deployment, and an acknowledgment that it probably affects the strategic balance after all, what exactly is the intended message? It’s the same. They’re just betting that the opposition parties in the U.S., the Democrats and the mainstream press, will do as they did during the Cold War to whoever opposed assertive defense policies: Listen to what our adversaries say and ignore what they do.

A bad bet? Not hardly at all. As things chill up with neo-czarist Russia, expect the deployment of anti-ballistic-missile technology to get more attention. Next chapter: How it harms the children.

UPDATE: And for heaven’s sake, don’t ask anyone in uniform what they think about it.

Posted in Medialites, Stragety | Leave a Comment »

Ann H. Coulter, Will You Please Go Now!

Posted by David M. Nieporent on March 6, 2007

In 1972, Dr. Seuss (who was born 103 years ago this week) wrote a book called Marvin K. Mooney, Will You Please go Now! A few years later, as the Watergate scandal dragged on to its painful end, columnist Art Buchwald reprinted the book’s text, substituting “Richard M. Nixon” for the title character.

I was going to let the whole Ann Coulter CPAC mess pass without comment, since it happened a couple of days before I started on this blog (eons in blogospheric time), and I figured that there wasn’t anything that needed to be said that hadn’t been said. But tonight I saw this article, in which she not only failed to shut up, but promised that she wouldn’t:

“Apparently our top three Republican nominees aren’t that smart,” Coulter said. “And by the way, if they’re going to start apologizing for everything I say, they better keep that statement handy cause there’s going to be a lot more in the next year.”

All this statement does is confirm my comment and complaint about Coulter from the day of her CPAC speech: everything she does is about her. I don’t particularly care what effect Coulter’s statements might have on the 2008 campaign, nor do I harbor any illusions that in the absence of Coulter, the campaign would be a highbrow, Whig-Clio style political debate about Big Ideas. Still, it would be nice if it weren’t about Ann Coulter.

Unlike Buchwald, I don’t have permission from Mr. Geisel to reprint the whole text, so I’ll just choose this representative excerpt:

Just go.
Go.
Go!
I don’t care how.
You can go by foot.
You can go by cow.
Ann H. Coulter will you please go now!

And hopefully that will be the last time I ever have to address the subject of that woman.

Posted in Medialites, Politics and Poker | 5 Comments »

I knew you were going to say that

Posted by Ron Coleman on March 5, 2007

Wired.com carries an AP story that confronts the free-choice vs. it’s-all-neurons bull-session staple in a story about the beginnings of mind-reading machines.

But don’t worry. As the article explains, it’s a technology that can only be used for good. Or evil.

Posted in Futurama, Nuvo-Techno | 3 Comments »

Wait for it…

Posted by David M. Nieporent on March 5, 2007

Ron’s post below about marriage as a Bourgeois luxury called to my mind these two recent stories from the Cato Institute’s Cato-at-liberty blog. The first entry, quoting a Tech Central Station column from last week, discusses some issues related to income inequality in the United States:

The picture of an actual millionaire is dramatically less glamorous than commonly-held visions of exclusive neighborhoods, expensive clothes and colorful social lives. In his 1996 book The Millionaire Next Door, co-authored with Dr. William Danko, Dr. Stanley revealed that the typical millionaire spent less than $400 on their most expensive suit, and only about 1% spent more than $2,800. Only one in ten millionaires had ever spent more than $300 on a pair of shoes. Most millionaires pay a few hundred dollars or less for their watch, and $30,000 or less for their main motor vehicle. They have been married to the same person most of their adult lives.The wealthy are conspicuous for their lack of consumption: “What are three words that profile the affluent? FRUGAL FRUGAL FRUGAL”. The book is full of startling individual cases: the millionaire who refused the gift of a Rolls Royce because he couldn’t imagine driving up in one to eat at the crummy restaurants he prefers, or throw caught fish in the back seat; the wife who, after her husband gave her $8 million in stocks, returned at once to clipping the 25 cent grocery coupons from her newspaper.

This is no coincidence. It is not that most millionaires are in the habit of being frugal despite their wealth: it is that they are so wealthy because they are in the habit of living so frugally. The plentiful residual income goes into savings and investments that are left to grow for decades.

The second entry, from last month, discusses a recent study regarding income inequality in the Third World:

The Economist reports on an interesting new study showing that members of a Bolivian tribe who understood the value of deferred gratification also experienced higher income gains:

In short, how we choose to live our lives is not merely a question of personal preference; our decisions have long term consequences, both in the personal and financial realms. The unifying issue here is delayed gratification.

I do need to disagree with Ron in one area; in Ron’s comments over at Dean’s World, he tries to draw a neat line between conservatives on the one hand and “liberals and libertarians” on the other. He writes:

Liberals and libertarians aren’t bothered by these things because they believe there is no morality other than when your swinging fist finally brains me; liberals add in the “moral” principle that people who have less have a “moral” right to take it from people who have more. They don’t believe that issues of dignity and social cohesion can properly be inferred from how people look, act and talk, or, in many cases, they consider cohesion “oppresive” even if they end up decrying “alienation” and glass ceilings.

We libertarians are not so easily categorized at this; we span a wide spectrum. It is true that there are some libertarians who are libertine in nature, who believe that how we behave is irrelevant as long as we are not assaulting others. But others of us are more conservative (with a small ‘c’) than that; we recognize that there is more to the evaluation of behavior than whether fist meets skull.

We all agree that the government should not — and for the most part cannot — legislate in these areas, but that does not mean we reject the notion that some behaviors are more reasonable, more productive, more beneficial than others. Having opinions is not the same as enforcing them at gunpoint. (Which I realize Ron has not proposed, either.)

Posted in Gelt, Politics and Poker | 3 Comments »

Thomas and Teddy

Posted by Ron Coleman on March 5, 2007

I thought I knew a thing or two about Scooter Libby’s lawyer, Ted Wells. Here’s something I didn’t know: He’s friends with Justice Clarence Thomas. Fact is, it’s right in Wikipedia, too. I guess I have to admit it: Neither of them really talks to me much these days.

Now that is a rather odd couple. Hat tip to David Lat.

Posted in Lex scripta | Leave a Comment »