Likelihood of Success

Ron Coleman’s pretty good blog

Cui?, Bono?

Posted by Ron Coleman on March 5, 2007

Advertising Age reports: “Costly Red Campaign Reaps Meager $18 Million.” Walking around New York City, I was impressed with the brand-development demonstrated by this $100 million campaign. Famous, beautiful people in Red Gap stuff, telling us to “Buy Red.” Fantastic simultaneous investment and expenditure of brand equity, utilizing not only Gap but Motorola and Apple — great brands building a new, greater brand for something even greaterly greater!

Okay, one slight problem.

Looking at the ads — on billboards, bus shelters, phone booths — I had no idea what they were for. What Red? Red what?

No message. No content.

In fact, even reading the Advertising Age article linked to above, you still have no idea what the point of this campaign was until five or so paragraphs down into the article! Evidently it’s something to do with AIDS. Or Africa. I still don’t know. Guess what: They — it — he — who? — doesn’t even tell you on the RED homepage.

It’s an arrogance thing, I think.

(Cross-posted on LIKELIHOOD OF CONFUSION)

Posted in Gelt, Medialites | Leave a Comment »

Atheists need not apply

Posted by Ron Coleman on March 5, 2007

Because once you listen to this clip, you can no longer doubt that there is a God.

UPDATE: And He is a vengeful God.

VERY LATE UPDATE:  Actual insight here.

Posted in Jocularity, Politics and Poker | 1 Comment »

A bourgeois luxury

Posted by Ron Coleman on March 5, 2007

Glenn Reynolds picks up this quote from the Washington Post …

As marriage with children becomes an exception rather than the norm, social scientists say it is also becoming the self-selected province of the college-educated and the affluent. The working class and the poor, meanwhile, increasingly steer away from marriage, while living together and bearing children out of wedlock. . . . Marriage has declined across all income groups, but it has declined far less among couples who make the most money and have the best education. These couples are also less likely to divorce.

… and cites back to his own citation in January to the work of Kay Hymowitz. I discussed this the month before, actually, writing this at Dean’s World:

I’ve fought an uphill battle in these pages for the proposition that we have lost something in our abandonment of traditional morality, especially as regards family life. There are so many unclear empirical questions, though, and so much cultural and religious baggage this conversation has to carry, that I never felt I was making any headway, or could, without recourse to explicitly religious arguments.

That’s why I’m grateful for a link provided in the Kaus article to an article by Kay Hymowitz in City Journal. Hymowitz takes apart the truisms, generalizations, assumptions and illogic that dance around the just plain truth that the socioeconomic, and social, reality for mothers and children — and dads — in households without a husband are worse off, remain worse off, and bestow a future of worse off to their own offspring.

I was, however, quite unable to get any traction in the comments. People ended up defending what great parents certain single parents were, while, in my view, missing the real issue — that traditional morality, as rapidly dwindling as it is in popularity in this country — even among “conservatives” — has something to say about healthy relationships, healthy child-rearing, and healthy adulthoods.

Now even the Post agrees that, empirically speaking, those with the most choice and given the most options more or less choose the most traditional arrangements. Why is that? I can’t say it’s because of a rebirth of religious or “traditional” morality — that’s not happening among elites in the West. But here’s one hint: People who accomplish the most — “couples who make the most money and have the best education” — are the most likely to have gotten to that point by virtue of being accustomed to discipline, i.e., self-denial and delayed gratification. Hence: “These couples are also less likely to divorce.”

Investment pays off. Successful people not only know this, but apply to all aspects of their lives — not only careers and finances. It is true that success in those areas can make you think there’s a shortcut to happiness in the other, arguably more challenging ones — family, love, and making some stab at finding meaning in life. But the only shortcut achieved, usually, is distraction from the truth.

As the research shows, the poor and working class don’t even have that. Nor the leadership — political or spiritual — to suggest where they can find it.

UPDATE: Villanously more.

Posted in Gelt, O Mores! | 3 Comments »

They’re not either

Posted by Ron Coleman on March 5, 2007

Mickey Kaus asks, regarding Barak Obama’s patent shill to the unions that still make up the rank and file of Democratic Party operatives and”volunteers”:

The idea of requiring a union, without a secret ballot election, if labor organizers can obtain a majority of “cards” from employees seems like both a big idea and a bad idea. (See below.) If Republicans were smart and confident, wouldn’t they make a big deal of this–drag the debate in Congress out to give it more prominence, highlighting Obama’s support?

Kaus kids, of course. He teases us lovingly. No, of course they aren’t confident, that’s for sure. They can’t line up fast enough to move to the left, reading tea leaves by pouring the water out and banging the cup upside down in the dish drain. And smart? If they were so smart — well, really, what’s the point of discussing that?

What’s really interesting is the question, Which “Republicans”? By all indications today’s “Republicans, ” whether they work in the Capitol or the White House, can’t tie their own shows politically. Rudy Giuliani, the front-runner, is smart. He’s confident. For Rudy, those aren’t the questions, though. The question is, Can anyone who has served as mayor of New York City — which, because of unions and union-driven wage-inflation legislation is the most expensive place to do anything in the hemisphere — even one who managed to annoy unions during his time in office — possibly find it with himself to go to town on an issue like this?

Only if he wants to win. Rudy, I think, does.

Posted in Politics and Poker | Leave a Comment »

Over-Islamophobia’ed

Posted by Ron Coleman on March 4, 2007

All blog tropes (at least those of interest to me in the last week) are now reaching total self-referential intersection. The obvious next thing to do is bring David Nieporent here to join this blog.

Posted in Blogophilia | Leave a Comment »

Spencerian evolution

Posted by Ron Coleman on March 4, 2007

Robert Spencer engages at Jihad Watch. If you’re still at all interested in this stuff, which isn’t going away all that fast… but will go away, at least in terms of the Dean’s World kerfuffle. On the other hand the substantive discussion on the issues — what is Islam, and is it any kind of problem? — is here, and it’s not going anywhere fast.

UPDATE: Updated.

Posted in Blogophilia, Orient | Leave a Comment »

White shoes step in it

Posted by Ron Coleman on March 2, 2007

Do you have to be a New York lawyer to love reading this?

Posted in Lex scripta, O Mores! | Leave a Comment »

Spencer debates D’Souza

Posted by Ron Coleman on March 2, 2007

Robert Spencer takes up the cudgel with Dinesh D’Souza. The overwhelming feedback I’ve gotten since posting on this topic is that D’Souza does not have a constituency within the conservative movement. I wish it were true, now that I see what D’Souza’s about, but does Robert’s description of the gallery comport with that?

Posted in Orient, Politics and Poker | 1 Comment »

That settles it

Posted by Ron Coleman on March 2, 2007

Weekend at Osama'sTaliban Official: Bin Laden Is Alive.

I wasn’t buying it when they were showing OBL’s vacation videos during the year after 9/11, which everyone — everyone but the CIA, whose opinion is also entirely counter-indicative of the actual truth — knew had been taken in Tora Bora before it was leveled, if not earlier. I wasn’t buying it in the last year when they haven’t even dragged out the latest 8-track of his supposed voice, which itself was absurd: If he were alive, you know they’d put him on the screen.

Just the whole thing is preposterous. (My word of the year, sorry.) But now that they’ve come out and announced the contrary, short of his head in a basket — which, really, who among us really wants any part of? — I can’t imagine what else you’d want.

UPDATE: I have never felt so sure of myself on something like this!

UP-UP-UPDATE: Dead men tell no tales.

Posted in Medialites, Orient, Politics and Poker | 1 Comment »

Maybe the right thing, after all

Posted by Ron Coleman on March 1, 2007

I did get a few offers — rather flattering — and a few more suggestions — rather curious — about where else to blog now that I left Dean’s World. I’m feeling a little like I don’t want to be someone else’s guest any more, though, you know what I mean?

I have things to say.

Posted in Blogophilia | Leave a Comment »