Likelihood of Success

Ron Coleman’s pretty good blog

The offense of existence

Posted by Ron Coleman on January 5, 2009

The “Muslim world” and its friends caterwaul constantly that America never gives its leaders and its people fair consideration, that it doesn’t treat them as “full partners” in various and sundry “dialogues” and “processes,” and that it unfairly favors the literate and liberal Zionist regime that causes all the world’s problems. It’s really quite a thing to see, for they don’t merely have a problem with this tilt, but with any assertion of self-defense by either the U.S. or Israel for any reason. Thus the very concept of the war on terrorism is considered objectionable by Muslim populations: The effort by the United States, and the West in general, to undermine the power and capacity of terrorists is considered an offense, for the obvious reason that it is directed at, well, terrorists.

So it’s not surprising that the usual suspects are outraged, shocked, horrified at Israel’s long-overdue (strategically, if not tactically and logistically) assertion of its fundamental right of self-defense. Read this story, and see how many times you search for an actual argument based on fairness or some sense of shared humanity before you give up, as usual:

In Turkey, more than 5,000 people held an anti-Israel rally in Istanbul, waving Palestinian flags and burning effigies of Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and President George W. Bush. Also in Istanbul, club-wielding police broke up a small demonstration by protesters who hurled eggs at the Israeli Consulate . . .

Israel’s weeklong aerial bombardment of Gaza and the start of the ground offensive Saturday against Hamas have drawn condemnation across the Muslim and Arab world and news coverage of the invasion has dominated Arab satellite television stations.

Thousands in cities from Tehran to Damascus have also taken to the streets to protest the attacks, which have killed about 500 Palestinians and wounded more than 1,600, according to Gaza officials.

In some cases, the protests of the past week were as directed against Arab governments as much as Israel, with many criticizing their perceived inaction or lack of sufficient support of the Palestinians.

On Sunday, the leaders of Egypt and Jordan — the only two Mideast Arab countries to sign a peace agreement with Israel and maintain diplomatic ties — condemned the ground offensive and called for an end to Israel’s onslaught in Gaza.

I’m not saying it’s surprising that they don’t share my view, or that of the Israel government, that this campaign was justified. I’m pointing out that not a single leader, protester or other representative voice is heard in this article by Lebanese reporter Bassem Mroue (more here) explaining why — given the objective fact that Israel has been under bombardment from this territory for months, by the ruling government of it, and no one has said or done anything to stop it — Israel’s actions cannot possibly be justified. Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in Oppression, Orient, Sisyphus, Stragety | 2 Comments »

Caption contest.

Posted by Ron Coleman on January 4, 2009



Warning.

Originally uploaded by Ron Coleman

First prize: A trip to northern New Jersey, home of so many special environmental spots.

Second prize: Two trips here.

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a Comment »

Dear John

Posted by Ron Coleman on January 3, 2009

Instapundit:

It’s interesting to me that we see far more anger from Old Media folks aimed at bloggers, etc., than at Craigslist, even though Craigslist has done far more economic harm to the newspaper industry than bloggers, who probably add eyeballs rather than (as Craigslist does) subtracting them.

Very interesting indeed.  Craigslist hasn’t only destroyed conventional classified advertising, which was inevitable — a more natural use of the Internet is hardly conceivable.  It’s probably really done in giveaway papers such as the Village Voice, whose recent layoffs of franchise players indicate nothing so much as the classic death spiral, that lived above all on (increasingly politically incorrect anyway) backpage ads for sleazy “exotic” services.  These supposedly generated $80,000 a month for the Voice in the good times.

For such outfits, the highly publicized “crackdown” at Craigslist is too little, too late.  Too bad.

Posted in Gelt, Medialites, O Mores! | Leave a Comment »

What I’m doing, and what I’m not

Posted by Ron Coleman on January 2, 2009

Last week I laughingly linked to this post from last year wherein I asked myself, what on earth would I want to do with Twitter?  I had ignored Dean Esmay‘s invitation to join Twitter, though a little later a mutual friend convinced me to give it a try.  As I explain in this post from yesterday, I didn’t even really do anything with it until about six weeks ago, when I finally forced the issue on that friend’s urging as a way to increase traffic here.

I got the hang of it (update:  linked to old profile, now deleted, showing massive teeming following — RDC).

In almost no time I had attracted over 500  “followers.”  And, counting for “quality,” I now have at the time of this writing a score on Twitter Grader — one of several metrics, mind you, not of all of which would show as high a score — of 98.8 out of 100.  By their scale, as of this minute I am was ranked 8,965 in the galaxy out of over 850,000 users.  And that’s with being resolutely refused mutuality of followship by James Lileks.

With this, together with my mega-special Facebook page, I revealed myself to be, with my natural glibness, broad education and technological facility — yes, and of course that famous characteristic modesty —  a true social networking genius.  And blog traffic, as well as links and mutual blogroll relationships, did increase.  I even got a couple of direct inquiries for legal services!

Today I deactivated my Facebook account.

And I’m doing the same with Twitter.  Now, because Twitter is a little more personal and dynamic, I am going to take a couple of days before unplugging that… say some goodbyes to all that, at least goodbye to tweeting.  We can read each other in the funny papers.

But this has taken over my life.  The fact is, I’m too good at social networking for my own good.  If eating all the candy you want means that you eat candy three meals a day, you have to be someone who doesn’t eat candy at all, no matter how much energy it gives you.

I have real things to do, and not nearly as much time to talk about doing them as I’m spending.  And I don’t necessarily have any good reason for talking about those things, and other things, too, with some of the people with whom I’ve been talking.

I have a couple of good blogs, guest slots and privileges on some others, a lot of great clients, fine partners, countless friends, and priceless family members to live with.  Not virtually, really.

That’s what I’m doing.

UPDATE:  I reestablished my Twitter account as a place holder immediately after “quitting” Twitter, and merely used it as a feed for blog posts.  I hardly expected anyone to follow me there, though a few have.  I am only slowly beginning to, sparingly, utter any personal tweets, and I have structured my social cloud so as not become the sort of “social scene” it had for me last winter. It’s now social, but in the business social sense.

I also reopened my Facebook account but use it in a far more focused than I was doing last year.  It’s something that exists in my life now — as opposed to being my life!

Posted in Blogophilia, Futurama, Heart and spirit, Narcissus Rex, Nuvo-Techno, Social networking | 11 Comments »

Good night 2008

Posted by Ron Coleman on December 31, 2008



Phoenix eve

Originally uploaded by Ron Coleman

What a year.

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a Comment »

Fear of failure

Posted by Ron Coleman on December 31, 2008

Instapundit :

“President Reid?” I know it’s just a verbal stumble, but don’t scare me like that.

Failure Face

Come Glenn, we must face our fears!

Posted in Jocularity, Politics and Poker | Leave a Comment »

Best of 2008: “With Donations Like That…” (August)

Posted by Ron Coleman on December 30, 2008

This is from August 11th:

With “donations” like this, you don’t need to sell things:

A bartender from Chicago, Stephanie works two jobs and wants to go back to college to study biology. After her roommate donated her eggs to a fertility clinic, Stephanie, who asked that her real name not be used to protect her privacy, said she decided to help an infertile couple and make $7,000 in the process.

Stephanie said if not for the faltering economy, she would not be donating her eggs. . . . “I make roughly $800 a week. The $7,000 will help, but its not going to pay for an education. I’m still going to have to take out loans,” Stephanie said.

Is selling something for $7,000 called “donating” now? It’s the word ABC uses in the headline, too.

Oh, and “Stephanie” the bartender’s economic analysis? Also donated, evidently. And worth every penny.

Comments are open at the original post.

Posted in Best of the Blog | Leave a Comment »

Best of 2008: “Don’t Leave a Message at the Sound of the Tone” (July)

Posted by Ron Coleman on December 29, 2008

This first went up on July 6th:

Michael Arrington:

[A]n increasing number of people are just plain avoiding voicemail (for my impromptu and unscientific survey, see the comments here, which are predominantly anti-voicemail). It takes much longer to listen to a message than read it. And voicemail is usually outside of our typical workflow, making it hard to forward or reply to easily.

Typical voicemail messages today include things like “Please don’t leave me a voicemail, I rarely listen to them. Please just email me at xxxx@xxxx.com” Many people don’t bother setting up their voicemail accounts at all. Then there’s my favorite method, the one I use personally – let the message box get full and then don’t empty it. Caller ID still tells me who called, and I can simply call them back.

How many times have you called someone back and said “I saw that you called but didn’t listen to the voicemail yet, Is it anything urgent?”

Senders often feel guilty for leaving voicemails, too. And to make sure you get the message, quite often people will follow up with a text message – “Just left you a VM, it’s important” – just so you know it’s there.

Yeah, don’t bother. If you have to reach me, voicemail is about 17th on the list after email, IM’ing, texting, emailing my wife, smoke signals, a Facebook poke and skywriting.

In the ’80’s we thought voicemail, the kind of mainfraim version of telephone answering machines that were the text-messaging of our college years, was cool. That got old fast, though. I remember being impressed when I worked for super-lawyer Ted Wells and finding out his voicemail was disabled. If you wanted to leave a message, you could leave it with his secretary. Awesome. This was about 15 years ago, and email hadn’t even become part of corporate life, but I already knew no one with anything better to do sat down tapping his feet scribbling down a message out of voicemail.

I never was able to get such privileges, although I did get to a point where my secretary’s job was to check my voicemail regularly and turn the message into an email … which doesn’t mean that’s always what happens, just that that was her job. I will stare at, or perhaps more accurately ignore, that little red light a long, long time if I have any semblance of an idea of what the message might be. In contrast, with my BlackBerry cellphone permanently attached to my hip, you’re likely to get a work email back from me within minutes, if not seconds, unless I really, really want to avoid you.

(This is not the same thing as wanting to actually be called up on my cell phone. I do not want you to call me on my cell phone. Have I mentioned email?)

Until I get it completely ripped out, though, all I can do is count on our receptionist (no direct dial number! yay!) to offer to take a message, and to allow “VM” through only with a disclaimer: “He doesn’t really check it.” Because I live in a hierarchical world, however, as long as it’s out there, it’s hanging over my head. That’s what Ted knew: Once someone leaves you a message, you’re “it.”

Sometimes the person leaving that voicemail is a judge. And when he makes you “it,” you’d better be aware.

But everyone else, don’t leave me a voicemail. Not if it matters whether I hear it.

Please leave a message… here.

Posted in Best of the Blog | 2 Comments »

Best of 2008: “Phoenix, God’s Oven” (July)

Posted by Ron Coleman on December 29, 2008

This was posted on July 24th:

Beautiful plaza in God’s oven, Phoenix

Originally uploaded by Ron Coleman

This is a really beautiful picture that, in the air conditioned comfort of home and after using two different computer programs to leach the excess photons out of it, actually makes Phoenix look like a place you would want to be in the summer for one or two minutes.

Have I mentioned that it’s not?

I could barely even open my eyes while taking this picture. That was with sunglasses. Dark ones. Of course there was also a waterfall in front of me. You never heard of the waterfall in the middle of the western Arizona desert? Yeah. Coleman Falls. It runs off my scalp down the smooth bed of my shiny forehead, cascades right past my squinting eyes, and deposits in the gentle basin forming around my shirt collar.

But with computer simulation, it almost as if the color green could be perceived by human sight in Phoenix in July. So you enjoy that.

Comments are closed here, open there.

Posted in Best of the Blog, Phoenix | Leave a Comment »

Madoff: All you had to do was ask

Posted by Ron Coleman on December 29, 2008

Bruce MacEwen’s Adam Smith, Esq. blog quotes from an interview in Barron’s in which a major (multi-billion-dollar) potentional investor in Madoff’s hedge fund smelled fraud after an exasperating several hours of stonewalling by the “great man” and walked away without investing.

You’ve got to read these quotes to believe how bright, how flashing, how garishly obvious the warning lights were — if only you, as a hedge fund manager or other financial fiduciary — would stop worrying about not looking cool, do your job and ask the questions.

Posted in Gelt, Homo sapiens, Sisyphus | 1 Comment »