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Inconvenient thoughts on Iran

Posted by Ron Coleman on June 19, 2009

Exciting times regarding Iran, right?

But I keep wondering why everyone forgets that it’s not as if they’re looking to put Shimon Peres on the Peacock Throne here, you know?  Mr. Roach agrees:

I can’t get too pumped about what’s going on in Iran. Perhaps on balance Mousavi would be better for the United States and the Iranian people. It’s hard to say. But lots of angry people in the streets does not mean he’s a great guy with a great plan to support a more liberal and decent regime in Iran. Muqtadr al Sadr used to get the crowds out too. Indeed, so did Khomenei. It’s just as likely, considering the people and history involved, Mousavi would spend much of his energy oppressing his erstwhile oppressors if elected. This is the way politics runs in the Third World.

We are talking about an Islamic poltical party in an Islamic state. Almost no one talks about how Mousavi ran the show in Iran in the 1980s as Prime Minister when Iran was America’s mortal enemy, and his track record then–-when Iran was supporting kidnappings of Americans in Lebanon and attacks on US ships in the Gulf–-is chiefly why the Iranians like him. Why should we think his vague anti-corruption platform means we’ll have a friendly regime there? Why do neocons lose their judgment every time some “color revolution” comes down the pike?

(Via A Guy.)  Well, look, the enemy of my enemy is still my friend.  If nothing is going to help with Iran until something gives, maybe something giving will help.  And it’s not as if the State Department, or the Obama Administration — which are tacitly, and not so tacitly, supporting destabilization of this regime right now — are neocons.  Hardly.

Do we say that we wish the Soviets had not been humiliated in Afghanistan now that we know we ultimately helped build up the Taliban movement by our support?  I am not sure what the answer to that is, but it I think it’s no.

Instability can be a scary place, and sometimes after the fact we wish we could go back to where the trains ran on time and we didn’t have to hear the screaming.  Sometimes — say, regarding Iraq — that wish gets a little too urgent and impatient and is, ultimately, terribly immoral.

You know, to make an omelet you have to break a few eggs, yes?

On the other hand, Roach is right about one thing:  Let’s not get all dewy-eyed about the next Persian prince.  It’s not likely that we’ll be comparing him to Lech Walesa, much less Thomas Jefferson, for all that long after he gets his turn… if indeed it comes to that at all.

Posted in Oppression, Orient, Stragety | 1 Comment »

Slow burn

Posted by Ron Coleman on May 31, 2009

The New York Times writes, regarding the General Motors bankruptcy:

Rarely has a company fallen so far and so fast as General Motors.

“Fast”?  Hello?!

Actually, Michelene Maynard doesn’t really mean that:  She documents the exact opposite of a “fast” fall in the otherwise perfectly good article that follows.  It’s just that, well, you know those blogs — no one edits the darn things, right:

“I never ever could have believed that one day this thing would go that way,” said Jim Wangers, a retired G.M. executive who was part of the team that developed the Pontiac GTO, and the author of “Glory Days,” about Pontiac’s heyday in the muscle-car era of the 1960s….

The company did have vast numbers of loyal buyers, but G.M. lost them through a series of strategic and cultural missteps starting in the 1960s.

It bungled efforts in the 1980s to cut costs by sharing the underpinnings of its cars across different brands, blurring their distinctiveness.

G.M. gave in to union demands in 1990 and created a program that paid workers even when plants were not running, forcing it to build cars and trucks it could not sell without big incentives.

The Times article ultimately avoids a key issues by the light of everyone with an ounce of economics understanding:  Those union demands, and that giving in to them, made the structural cost of buying any GM car completely uncompetitive, even when they were desirable to own.

Was this GM’s fault?  It probably could have done a lot more to bargain tough with its unions.  But how much more?  Was a GM lockout going to happen in any version of the America most of us have ever known?  How was GM to deal with this:

[In 2007, the UAW’s President Ron] Gettelfinger . . . . declared that he is not in a “concessionary mood.” UAW workers at Ford and GM agreed to a health-care cost-sharing deal during an unusual round of mid-contract negotiations in 2005. Closing the competition gap with Japanese auto makers now, Mr. Gettelfinger insists, requires not more concessions by auto workers—but a Japanese-style government health-care system for all workers.

“We pay more, but get less,” he thundered to roaring applause at a recent NAACP luncheon . . .

Before the 2005 “givebacks,” the Detroit Three companies picked up the entire health-care tab for all their hourly workers—active, retired, dependents and, incredibly, even laid-off workers till they found other jobs. Workers were not required to pay any premiums, deductibles or co-pays-except for routine physical exams and prescription drugs. The 2005 deal left these benefits virtually untouched . . .  In short, for a grand total of $752 in out-of-pocket annual costs, UAW retirees and their spouses get full medical coverage for life. Given the huge retiree population that the Big Three support—GM has three times more retirees than active workers—this has saddled them with a combined unfunded health-care liability exceeding $100 billion. . . .

UAW workers still enjoy a health-care deal that no one else in America or Japan—or quite possibly the planet—does. Yet Mr. Gettelfinger said last week that the 2005 health-care givebacks were the toughest decision he ever made in his entire career. This is a startling admission that reflects the depth of the UAW’s entitlement mentality, and its detachment from the world that its fellow Americans inhabit. But such lavish expectations are unsustainable under any system—American or Japanese. This is a reality that Mr. Gettelfinger must accept. Otherwise, he may well push U.S. auto makers over the cliff—and his comrades with them.

It remains to be seen whether and to what extent Prime Minister Obama and his union-financed Congress will do their best to put Humpty Dumpty–the UAW, that is, no matter whether it bears a BUICK, CHEVROLET or CADILLAC nameplate–back together again.  When you’re spending a trillion dollars a year, after all, picking up another $100 million is nothing, especially when you hold so much stock in the debtor.

Better question:  Will conservatives (I didn’t say Republicans) do anything to stop the process by which we might indeed join the lot of them as they proceed, Wile E. Coyote-like, down into the gulch?  Or have we so diluted our voices with nonsense such as screaming about Obama’s date with his wife, his use of teleprompters and his choice of mustard that when it comes to policy discussions that really matter, we’re…

Just about as market-friendly, idea-wise, as GM?

Posted in Gelt, Sisyphus, Stragety | 1 Comment »

The second, third, fourth, and 343rd time as farce

Posted by Ron Coleman on May 27, 2009

North Korean threatens blah blah blah:

Clinton said North Korea has made a choice to violate U.N. Security Council resolutions, ignore international warnings and abrogate commitments made during six-nation nuclear disarmament talks.

“There are consequences to such actions,” she said, referring to discussions in the United Nations about punishing North Korea for its nuclear and missile tests.

Laugh me out loud.  “Consequences” — yeah, like maybe we won’t start shipping them free grain and rice until almost the third week in January!

She did not provide specifics, saying only that the intent of diplomats was to “try to rein in the North Koreans” and get them to fulfill commitments made in the nuclear talks.

That’s keeping them up all night, I’m sure.  The prospect of diplomats with INTENT!

Clinton said she was pleased by a unified international condemnation of North Korea that included Russia and China, North Korea’s closest major ally and the host of the currently stalled disarmament talks.

Yeah, yeah.  Condemnation — so, so key.  Key to the kingdom in fact.  When you’ve got condemnation, you’ve got it all.

It’s not a Democrat thing.  Something happens when you go to Washington.  You… you get really, really stupid, I guess.

Posted in Past is prologue, Sisyphus, Stragety | 2 Comments »

Gravity works

Posted by Ron Coleman on May 21, 2009

You know how you have a lump in the rug, and you press it down, right?  And then the lump’s “gone”?

And then, guess what, exactly where the pressure from your foot ended, what do you see?  The lump!

The lump will just move all over the rug from that technique.  You can’t get rid of a lump from a bunched up carpet by just squeezing it away.  You have to pull up the carpet and put back down right.

Economics?  Same exact thing.

Posted in Gelt, Sisyphus, Stragety | 2 Comments »

Never having to say you’re sorry

Posted by Ron Coleman on May 20, 2009

Jihad Watch:

Poor Timing Alert: Hamas renews rocket attacks on Israel just as Obama calls for Israelis and Palestinians to live “side by side in peace and security” —

Obama said this during his press conference with Netanyahu yesterday: “I have said before and I will repeat again that it is, I believe, in the interests not only of the Palestinians but also the Israelis and the United States and the international community to achieve a two-state solution in which Israelis and Palestinians are living side by side in peace and security.”  [Count to three, a-a-a-a-nd….]

“Rocket Attack on Sderot Home,” by Tzvi Ben Gedalyahu for Israel National News, May 19 (thanks to Sr. Soph):

Yes, that would seem to be poor timing — if actions, words or intentions every mattered when judging advocates of genocide against the Jews in the Mideast.  I know Robert Spencer is merely making a point about the timing, and that he’s one person who doesn’t need to be told:  There’s no such thing as poor timing for Palestinians and other Arabs when it comes to attacking Jews and Israel.

The only thing “poor timing” costs the Jihad is one or two news cycles, as a matter of Western good taste.

But there is no long term cost to Arab violence as long as its victims are Jews.  The West, and of course an Administration such as Obama’s that is primed for Palestinian “pragmatism” politics, doesn’t merely have a short memory — no quantum of murderous intent is any greater than any other, or any more morally or even tactically meaningful.  “Pragmatism” is a philosophy that teaches that it is, ultimately, “practical” to “negotiate” with the enemy who has sworn to annihilate you, no matter how obvious it seems to “idealogues” that such oaths are entitled to their plain, murderous meaning.

Poor timing is, in fact, great timing, in other words.  By spitting in the face of pragmatists, and merely counting to three before they demonstrate that they will come back for more, terrorists set the agenda and exercise all the leverage.  This was a lesson well learned and well taught by Yassir Arafat, whose only real strategic error, history may (though we hope it does not) judge, was not living healthfully enough to see the fruition of his long-term formula:  Never apologize, never regret, stash the “aid” money in Switzerland and never, ever, worry about “timing.”

Posted in Orient, Stragety | Leave a Comment »

Oh, yeah… him

Posted by Ron Coleman on April 26, 2009

Last fall I reluctantly supported John McCain for President.  I wasn’t even sure why at the time, and could mostly focus on why I thought Barack Obama was not up to the task.  But shame on me — there was a reason, and it’s the same issue that made me realize I am a conservative in the first instance.  And the inexcusable Obama “policy” on “torture” — which is merely a political hiccup, a gesture to the left, a classic instance of liberal symbolism as government, that just happens threatens to undermine the ultimate safety and freedom of every one of us — reminds me of it now.

Here comes a long excerpt, but worth it.  Here’s the crux of the matter from last October’s issue of  The Atlantic, and we pick up the article at the end, where Jeffrey Goldberg is discussing McCain with Henry Kissinger:

I pointed out that McCain has changed many of his positions during his candidacy in order, it seems, to better conform to Republican orthodoxy. Kissinger replied: “Under the pressure of a presidential campaign, it’s possible that he will make adjustments. He may deviate from his positions, but he will not like himself for it.”

In my conversations with McCain, however, he never appeared greatly troubled by his shifts and reversals. It’s not difficult to understand why: tax policy, or health care, or even off-shore oil drilling are for him all matters of mere politics, and politics calls for ideological plasticity. It is only in the realm of national defense, and of American honor—two notions that for McCain are thoroughly entwined—that he becomes truly unbending.

Kissinger learned this at their first meeting. “When I was in Vietnam for negotiations on implementing the Paris Agreement, the North Vietnamese prime minister had a dinner—I was leaving the next day—and he said if I wanted to take McCain on my flight, it could be arranged,” he said. “I told him that I won’t take McCain or anyone else on my plane. The prisoner release would have to happen on a schedule previously agreed. Somehow McCain heard about this and months later, at the White House reception for returned prisoners, he said to me, ‘I want to thank you for saving my honor.’ What McCain did not tell me at that time was that he had refused to be released two years earlier unless all were released with him. It was better for him to remain in jail in order to preserve his honor and American honor than to come home on my plane.”

For McCain, the doctrine of preemption clearly falls outside the realm of mere politics, as does the need to “win,” rather than “end,” wars; the safety of America demands that they be fought, and honor demands that they be won.

McCain’s father, Kissinger said, saw the world the same way McCain sees it. “He was a military man, not a diplomat. Both men grasp the notion of consequences.

Consequences.  They are the reason the buck stops in the Oval Office.

The consequences of this lashing out at the previous regime, this post-Vietnamesque attempt to exorcise the hated, manly self, are not going to be “respect for the law” and widespread international warming toward America.  It will, to the contrary, give aid and comfort to those most contemptuous of law, and of our country, and most readily prepared to make every possible effort to destroy both.

That’s it, isn’t it?  Democrats really don’t seem to think about consequences, or at least to weigh them compared to gesture, self-regard and a need to please.

How many chances will we get to escape the consequences of a policy of vanity this time?

Cross-posted on Right-Wing News.

Posted in Narcissus Rex, Oppression, Past is prologue, Sisyphus, Stragety | 1 Comment »

Not everything’s relative

Posted by Ron Coleman on April 13, 2009

Instapundit:

BRUCE BARTLETT WONDERS WHY TEA-PARTIERS ARE PROTESTING, as the United States remains a comparatively low-tax country.

I’m quite a the “tea party” skeptic — but Bruce’s question strikes me as a non-sequitur.

If Europe jumped off the Empire State Building….?

Posted in Euroids, Gelt, Stragety | 2 Comments »

The sweet spot

Posted by Ron Coleman on March 22, 2009

Scoble’s love-hate relationship with Facebook is on the upswing. He explains First, you’ve gotta realize that in Facebook is “moving from phase four to phase five” out of seven in its development cycle right now, and that in each phase there’s been push-back from users and threats of rebellion:

Here’s the phases of Facebook:

Phase 1. Harvard only.

Phase 2. Harvard+Colleges only.

Phase 3. Harvard+Colleges+Geeks only.

Phase 4. All those above+All People (in the social graph).

Phase 5. All those above+People and businesses in the social graph.

Phase 6. All those above+People, businesses, and well-known objects in the social graph.

Phase 7. All people, businesses, objects in the social graph.

Phase 5 is known as when Facebook is really going to find its business model. This is why Mark Zuckerberg is absolutely correct to say he can’t listen to people who wants Facebook to get stuck in Phase Four. It was a nice phase, yes, when Facebook only had people in the social graph, but those days are over. . . .

Zuckerberg is a real leader because he doesn’t care what anyone thinks. He’s going to do what he thinks is best for his business. I wish Silicon Valley had more like him.

Look,on the other end of the spectrum from elitism and tone-deafness as to the people you’re serving — the most typical, though partly unfair, criticism of Detroit — is demagoguery, which gives you both bad government, P.T. Barnum-quality attractions and a short-term mentality.  And of course we’re not talking about courtesy and deference here.  We’re talking about business planning.  More:

My former boss, Jim Fawcette, used to say that if you asked a group of Porsche owners what they wanted they’d tell you things like “smoother ride, more trunk space, more leg room, etc.” He’d then say “well, they just designed a Volvo.”

When a client tells me he wants me to run each and every microdecision and communication by him, I tell him to find someone who happens to have a law license who will sell him those services; I’m a lawyer, and that’s not what I do for living.  I sell experience, judgment and insight, and I stand behind my work in the long run.

And don’t think for a second that if I gave him the first option, he wouldn’t hold me responsible for the down-side anyway.

Your customers and clients can’t call the shots.  At least not all at once, and certainly not when they’re just reacting to change, which they will usually do negatively. Clients can choose to hire someone who operates their way or my way, something in between or something even far beyond me in terms of detachment.  It’s true in every field.  Finding that sweet spot between delivering a product or service that your customer or client will want to come back for, not just tomorrow but in a year, is what it’s all about. It’s the difference between “true democracy” and republican government; the House and the Senate; junk food and nutrition; TV and the stage.  Why, Scoble has probably even figured out how to get my knees to stop hurting when I walk up the stairs.

But for now, I like his point about business.  Of course, it helps if, like Zuckerberg, you’re not charging customers any money yet, and you’re not quite risking the massive equity of a legacy brand leader with dominant marketing share — see New Coke.

Listen to your customers, yes; obey them, no. (Via Techmeme.)

Posted in Futurama, Gelt, Politics and Poker, Social networking, Stragety | 4 Comments »

Fool’s gold

Posted by Ron Coleman on March 4, 2009

Why is the never-ending campaign of President Obama elevating Rush Limbaugh’s profile?

Top Democrats believe they have struck political gold by depicting Rush Limbaugh as the new face of the Republican Party, a full-scale effort first hatched by some of the most familiar names in politics and now being guided in part from inside the White House.

The strategy took shape after Democratic strategists Stanley Greenberg and James Carville included Limbaugh’s name in an October poll and learned their longtime tormentor was deeply unpopular with many Americans, especially younger voters. Then the conservative talk-radio host emerged as an unapologetic critic of Barack Obama shortly before his inauguration, when even many Republicans were showering him with praise.

October?

Gee, has anything changed for Barack Obama, and that praise shower, since… October?

Somethings changed

Something's changed


UPDATE: Still looking golden?

Posted in Medialites, Politics and Poker, Stragety | 13 Comments »

Social notworking

Posted by Ron Coleman on March 3, 2009

I liked this Business Week article about certain social networking myths, sent to me by Ben Rothke (my computer security maven friend whom I also linked to last week on the other blog).  Two passages deserve to be excerpted.  The first one is about the gigantic baloney factor out and about there right now:

A surfeit of whiz kids and more experienced marketers are claiming to be social media experts and even social media gurus. Search the bios of Robert Scoble’s 56,838 Twitter followers using Tweepsearch (www.tweepsearch.com), an index of the bios of Twitter users, and you’ll find:

• 4,273 Internet marketers

• 1,652 social media marketers

• 513 social media consultants

• 272 social media strategists

• 180 social media experts

• 98 social media gurus

• 58 Internet marketing gurus

How many of them have actually created a successful campaign for clients using social media tools? I bet you’d be hard-pressed to find half a dozen with real track records.

I think you’d also be hard-pressed to call at least half of these characters any kind of “kids,” much less whizzes.  “Social media consulting” is about as accurate a term for most of these wizened hustlers really have to sell as “coaching” (another racket we’ll have to talk about one of these days).

Here’s the second excerpt I liked:

Social media is great if you’re already a star, but that doesn’t happen overnight. . . .

Zappos Chief Executive Tony Hsieh, whose company has millions of customers who are evangelists for the great service that built the brand, quickly became a Twitter star, with more than 32,000 followers. When Dell, JetBlue Airways, the Chicago Bulls, and other love-’em-or-hate-’em brands joined Twitter, they immediately developed huge followings.

Tweets can be used to drive traffic to articles, Web sites, contests, videos, and so on—if people already care about your brand, or if you have a truly original idea that people will want to share with their followers.

The focus, really, in the second excerpt should be on the last sentence.  Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in Social networking, Stragety | 5 Comments »