Likelihood of Success

Ron Coleman’s pretty good blog

An adult runs for President

Posted by Ron Coleman on March 14, 2007

The New York Times reports that Senator Clinton acknowledges what any mature statesman must: Even if she were elected President, an immediate, complete withdrawal of troops from Iraq would be the wrong thing to do:

She said in the interview that there were “remaining vital national security interests in Iraq” that would require a continuing deployment of American troops.

The United States’ security would be undermined if parts of Iraq turned into a failed state “that serves as a petri dish for insurgents and Al Qaeda,” she said. “It is right in the heart of the oil region. It is directly in opposition to our interests, to the interests of regimes, to Israel’s interests.”

I’ve remarked before that Senator Clinton, notwithstanding how much is distasteful (okay, or worse) about her as a candidate, stands out in one important regard — and does so even despite her husband’s own weakness in the same department: She is often willing to spend political capital to act and sound like a leader. For someone seeking the Democratic nomination to make the admission above puts her head and shoulders above the rest of them, and presents a real potential problem for the GOP candidate on what should be the GOP candidate on what should be the Republicans’ strongest issue: The question of whether any Democrat can be trusted on foreign policy.

UPDATE: Tom McGuire rounds up, is unimpressed.

Posted in Orient, Politics and Poker | 2 Comments »

Not so gay Paree

Posted by Ron Coleman on March 14, 2007

France’s highest court Tuesday rejected as unlawful the first marriage by a gay couple in France, annulling the union of the two men.

Stephane Charpin and Bertrand Charpentier were married in a civil ceremony on June 5, 2004, in Begles, a town in the southwest Bordeaux region. The government immediately said the union was outside the law, and a series of court decisions unfavorable to the couple followed.

In the latest decision, the court ruled that “under French law, marriage is a union between a man and a woman,” backing a 2005 decision by an appeals court in Bordeau.

Now, that’s not supposed to happen, is it? I don’t think so.

I find this particularly interesting in juxtaposition to the “outrage” and “demands for resignation” regarding the comments by General Peter Pace, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, calling lesbian and gay personnel “immoral.” Here’s why:

Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in Lex scripta, O Mores! | 27 Comments »

Cheney still Vice President

Posted by Ron Coleman on March 14, 2007

U.S. District Court, District of New Jersey

Regarding the U.S. Attorneys “scandal,” Orin Kerr reminds us of a weensy point: “U.S. Attorneys are political appointees who serve at the pleasure of the President, and the press seems to overlook that in a lot of its reporting.” Shocking, right? Clinton fired everyone — or worse. What possible scandal can there be to letting some of them (the vast majority of them) stay on?

It’s not that? It’s the fact that congressmen wanted things to happen prosecution-wise? Shocking, too. I’m sure everyone agrees what we need instead is lots of special prosecutors. They end up making everyone happy. And bipartisan? All the way!

Oh, I know. They’re calling for Gonzalez‘s resignation over this, not Cheney’s. Same difference.

Via Instapundit.

UPDATE:  More of the underwhelmed.

Posted in Politics and Poker | 6 Comments »

Better or worse than General Custer?

Posted by David M. Nieporent on March 14, 2007

Regardless of how one feels about the Bush administration’s handling of the war in Iraq, one thing is undeniable: the Democratic response has ranged from feeble (nonbinding resolutions) to absurd (“timetables”). Even the reliably liberal Los Angeles Times is condemning the House Democrats’ latest timetable plan, the one which calls for all sorts of “benchmarks” and schedules withdrawal by mid-2008, asking, “Do we really need a General Pelosi?”

The plan is an unruly mess: bad public policy, bad precedent and bad politics. If the legislation passes, Bush says he’ll veto it, as well he should.

Wow. For the L.A. Times, which generally sits around complaining that Bush is too unwilling to consult with others, to actually advocate that Bush should veto a Democratic proposal, is pretty amazing.

This is not to say that Congress has no constitutional leverage — only that it should exercise it responsibly. In a sense, both Bush and the more ardent opponents of the war are right. If a majority in Congress truly believes that the war is not in the national interest, then lawmakers should have the courage of their convictions and vote to stop funding U.S. involvement. They could cut the final checks in six months or so to give Bush time to manage the withdrawal. Or lawmakers could, as some Senate Democrats are proposing, revoke the authority that Congress gave Bush in 2002 to use force against Iraq.

[…]

By interfering with the discretion of the commander in chief and military leaders in order to fulfill domestic political needs, Congress undermines whatever prospects remain of a successful outcome. It’s absurd for House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco) to try to micromanage the conflict, and the evolution of Iraqi society, with arbitrary timetables and benchmarks.

Exactly. The real problem here isn’t that the Democrats disagree with Bush on foreign policy; the real problem is that Democrats aren’t thinking of this as foreign policy at all. They’re thinking of this as purely a question of domestic politics. I don’t say that they want the U.S. to fail in Iraq — but they’re more worried about making sure that Bush is blamed for it than about avoiding it.

(Hat Tip: Baseball Crank)

Posted in Orient | 8 Comments »

Best new blog name

Posted by Ron Coleman on March 14, 2007

“I can’t believe it’s not better.”

 

Not surprisingly, it’s about software.

Posted in Blogophilia | Leave a Comment »

The Pope is Catholic. Rudy Giuliani is a politician.

Posted by Ron Coleman on March 13, 2007

It should not be newsworthy that the Pope insists that Catholics, including politicians, take their faith seriously, not as something for Sunday in the pews but as something that guides their moral choices — even if they are officers in a democracy. But this Pope does have a spine, if much of the Vatican “career staff” that serves him doesn’t.

On the other hand, Allahpundit’s obsession (in the link) with the un-Catholic public policy stands of Rudy Giuliani is not new. I can’t imagine Giuliani even holds himself out as a practicing Catholic except in the most nominal sense, being on his third wife and all, but if I am wrong about this I will say I am not surprised. I expect little from politicians, even those I admire in their roles (not as role models) and support. But while I hesitate to speak for traditional Catholics, I can imagine that they expect, and are happy to get, far more from their religious leaders.

And that is not something to take for granted.

If I thought he were listening, I would advise my old friend Allahpundit not to get too hung up on Giuliani’s departure from the creed. That doesn’t mean he shouldn’t have his feet held to the fire on these issues, and that it isn’t a good idea for conservatives to be the ones to do it — I think we should. I just don’t think there are all that many people left who don’t know that Giuliani has historically been pro-abortion, even though he is actually rather conservative — or makes the conservative move — on many social issues. And after all, the present President was rock-solid on abortion. But even Allah has to admit that, from a conservative point of view, that choice (if you’ll pardon the expression) has not necessarily worked out so well.

That is the problem with single-issue candidates. We’ve all been there — I voted for Clinton in 1992 to punish GHWB for James (“F the Jews”) Baker — and we’ve all been burned. Is that the stake you want to flame out on, Allah? Because I’m not so sure the Church is going to keep you company.

Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in Faith and Works, O Mores!, Politics and Poker | 13 Comments »

Hillary cuts to the chase

Posted by Ron Coleman on March 13, 2007

She does have a secret weapon to unlocking our hearts after all.

Posted in Jocularity, Politics and Poker | 1 Comment »

Backup, climb down

Posted by Ron Coleman on March 13, 2007

Robert Kagan writes in the Washington Post:

A front-page story in The Post last week suggested that the Bush administration has no backup plan in case the surge in Iraq doesn’t work. I wonder if The Post and other newspapers have a backup plan in case it does.
Leading journalists have been reporting for some time that the war was hopeless, a fiasco that could not be salvaged by more troops and a new counterinsurgency strategy. …
No one is asking American journalists to start emphasizing the “good” news. All they have to do is report what is occurring, though it may conflict with their previous judgments. Some are still selling books based on the premise that the war is lost, end of story. But what if there is a new chapter in the story?

I wonder if it will make any difference. The only way it could is if the White House or the GOP were up to pushing the positive story. Evidently they aren’t, and never have been, which is an utter mystery to me. And we might well say that if you don’t have the ability not only to sell a war before it begins, but also during its course — you are not prepared to wage it, or to win it. Hat tip to Bizzy Blog.

Posted in Medialites, Politics and Poker | 1 Comment »

Fiction is stranger than non-fiction

Posted by Ron Coleman on March 13, 2007

Admirers of left-wing propagandist Michael Moore who shot a picture about his work called “Manufacturing Dissent” found him less cooperative about being in their documentary than former GM head Roger Smith, whom Moore depicted falsely as being unavailable and evasive in Moore’s award-winning “Roger and Me.” Notwithstanding the fact that Moore patently misled audiences about Smith’s alleged non-cooperation, Debbie Melnyk and Rick Caine still consider the obese multimillionaire “populist” and Jimmy Carter companion something of a hero:

“We’re a bit disappointed and disillusioned with Michael,” Melnyk said, “but we are still very grateful to him for putting documentaries out there in a major way that people can go to a DVD store and they’re right up there alongside dramatic features.”

It sounds as if they’d be grateful to Mark McGwire for “the concept” of breaking Roger Maris’s single-season home run record, too. Documentaries are supposed to be cinematic depictions of the truth. Of course they never really have been, and still hardly ever are. In fact every photograph, much less every moving picture — which modern people consider the sina qua non of “proof” — is a lie, a choice of framing, lighting, perspective, or worse. The same goes for print and other forms of journalism.

That doesn’t make these endeavors worthless — far from it. But like so much else in our culture, we have to acculturate ourselves to real reality: “Non-fiction,” whether by word, lens or “virtual reality,” is still someone else’s narrative.

Is there any hope for objectivity? Only one: Free expression, of course — the opportunity to contradict the chosen narrative*, to show the unlit angle, to interview the neglected witnesses. The Internet provides that opportunity as never before, so, of course, tyrants fear it. By all means give Melnyk and Caine credit for telling at least another slice of the story, despite how it reflects on a man they have found a way, despite his wretched dishonesty, to admire.

—

*Link updated.

Posted in Ars Longa, Medialites | 6 Comments »

Relics

Posted by Ron Coleman on March 12, 2007

I’m doing Passover cleaning and I’m in the stationery department of my house. (I have a lot of it, having closed down an office last year.) And I have stacks and stacks of floppy disk mailers.

Floppy disk mailers! Can you think of anything more quaint?

As the only blogger who is actually posting from a VIC-20, I was charmed. Those floppy disks beat the heck out of cassette tapes for data storage, believe me.

Posted in Americana, Nuvo-Techno | 2 Comments »