Likelihood of Success

Ron Coleman’s pretty good blog

It WAS Islam

Posted by Ron Coleman on June 4, 2009

Instapundit:

“IT WAS ISLAM… that carried the light of learning through so many centuries, paving the way for Europe’s Renaissance and Enlightenment. It was innovation in Muslim communities that developed the order of algebra; our magnetic compass and tools of navigation; our mastery of pens and printing; our understanding of how disease spreads and how it can be healed. Islamic culture has given us majestic arches and soaring spires; timeless poetry and cherished music; elegant calligraphy and places of peaceful contemplation.” Obama in Cairo.

Yes, it was Islam.  Um, but what has Islam done for me lately?

Posted in Faith and Works, Orient | 5 Comments »

The ultimate Twitter experience

Posted by Ron Coleman on June 4, 2009

Frank J_ demonstrates the fundamental Twitter social networking hierarchy dilemma — interspersed with some randomish thought-thingies:

FOLLOW @MichelleMalkin

Did you know that if you take a wash cloth, put it over your hand, and rub the soap on it back and forth real fast, you can see an outline of your hand in the wash cloth.

I like pie.

@JTlol My watch says it’s 12:29. I think it’s fast. What time do you have?

NUDGE @MichelleMalkin

I just bought a new poster of Robert Pattinson. I’m taking it to work next week! All the guys will be so jealous.

STALK MichelleMalkin

@andylevy When can I be on your show? I think I could do a better job than Greg.

@greggutfeld When can I be on your show? I think I could do a better job than Andy.

@MichelleMalkin I sent you an email. Did you get it?

@MichelleMalkin Hello?

I saw a UFO once. Then a rabbit attacked me.

OFF @MichelleMalkin

Posted in Heart and spirit, Jocularity, Social networking | Leave a Comment »

Jet fuel

Posted by Ron Coleman on June 3, 2009

This is what we white-knuckle passengers are always afraid of:

Military planes located new debris from Air France Flight 447 Wednesday while investigators focused on a nightmarish ordeal in which the jetliner broke up over the Atlantic as it flew through a violent storm. . . .

As the first Brazilian military ships neared the search area, investigators were relying heavily on the plane’s automated messages to help reconstruct what happened to the jet as it flew through towering thunderstorms. They detail a series of failures that end with its systems shutting down, suggesting the plane broke apart in the sky . . .

The pilot sent a manual signal at 11 p.m. local time saying he was flying through an area of “CBs” — black, electrically charged cumulonimbus clouds that come with violent winds and lightning. . . .

Ten minutes later, a cascade of problems began: Automatic messages indicate the autopilot had disengaged, a key computer system switched to alternative power, and controls needed to keep the plane stable had been damaged. An alarm sounded indicating the deterioration of flight systems.

Three minutes after that, more automatic messages reported the failure of systems to monitor air speed, altitude and direction. Control of the main flight computer and wing spoilers failed as well.

The last automatic message, at 11:14 p.m., signaled loss of cabin pressure and complete electrical failure — catastrophic events in a plane that was likely already plunging toward the ocean.

“Broke up…. failures… deterioration… plunging…”

I’m afraid of flying.  The very smell of jet fuel, nauseating enough as it is, automatically makes me sweat because what it fuels is my total visceral and neurological recall of my fear.

I do fly, and do it all the time.  And I am not the “nervous type.”  But I do have a visceral fear of heights — it’s entirely hardwired — and I get motion sick.  Also, as it turns out, most of my early “adventures in flight” were on the Chicago to New York route from when I was in law school.  This can often be a very rocky route, and during some winter flights we did indeed take some very, very precipitous drops in altitude.  These were taken entirely in stride by my fellow professional flier passengers, but I just turned into liquid and slunk lower and lower in my seat.  This was over 20 years ago, mind you, back when you could actually move in a coach class seat.

So I get puh-ritty religious on the airplane, tucked right up there next to God and, what do you know — none too eager to get any closer just right now.

And when you have these instinctual fears, and you add a bunch of learned fears heaped onto them, and you know how to read and stuff, you become just like one of those neurotics, you know?  You start thinking… of scenarios.  And the flop sweat comes.

This Air France story describes the kind of thing that’s just not supposed to happen.  Bad weather on a transatlantic flight?  No problem; these pilots, these aircraft — that’s their meat, right?

Right?

Posted in Heart and spirit, Homo sapiens, Sisyphus | Leave a Comment »

The UAW hedges its bets

Posted by Ron Coleman on June 3, 2009

Mickey Kaus explains, as only he can, how the UAW Administration Obama Administration have made sure the UAW has hedged all its bets in this customized, union-friendly bankruptcy at GM.

You should read the whole thing in order to understand how hopeless this situation is.  And that means reading right down to the very bottom, where he makes the point everyone seems to forget:

If the process had to start last November, though, it seems unfair to blame only Obama.

Quite unfair.

Posted in Futurama, Gelt, Past is prologue, Politics and Poker | 1 Comment »

Boy, you’re gonna carry that freight

Posted by Ron Coleman on June 3, 2009

Carry that freight

Some days the weight just presses down, you know?

Posted in Heart and spirit | Leave a Comment »

Tote boards don’t cut it

Posted by Ron Coleman on June 2, 2009

In what I suppose amounts to an endorsement by LIKELIHOOD OF CONFUSION® of the Sotomayor nomination from the point of view of her strong intellectual property background, I made a side point decrying what we might call the “tote board” approach to reckoning a judge’s inclinations on given issues.  That’s where we pile up all her published opinions, see how many went “one way” and how many went “the other way,” and declare that the nominee is “pro-gun” or “pro-government” without regard to the facts of those cases, the nature of the appellate or litigation docket that generated those opportunities to write the opinions, or even the ratio decidendi of the opinions themselves, which will be in some unknown percentage utterly unrelated to the issue being “tagged.”  It’s the logical fallacy of the confusion between cause and effect, or perhaps of the “questionable cause,” I suppose.

Thus, in my post, in which I pretend to start parsing out “pro-trademark-owner decisions” versus “pro-infringement-defendant decisions,” I immediately hit PRL USA Holdings v. U.S. Polo Ass’n, Inc., reported on here. That decision by a Second Circuit panel including Judge Sotomayor was “pro-defendant” in outcome, but obviously had nothing really to do with trademark:  The appeal really was about a point in connection with the Federal Rules of Evidence, not trademark at all.

It is true that some judges go where they want to go in certain kinds of cases regardless of what is really happening in a case, and without a care as to what issues are really before them — but these judges are merely robed criminals, patent abusers of their office and their oaths.  It is not as if many such jurists have not achieved high office, but no one seriously suggests that Judge Sotomayor is one of that type.

Now Ann Althouse presents us with a classic example of the “surprising decision” phenomenon, in connection with what unsophisticated observers will utterly not understand.  It relates to a Seventh Circuit decision, published today, holding that the Second Amendment to the Constitution is not incorporated into the Fourteenth Amendment — a potentially devastating development for gun ownership advocates.  Here’s Ann:

A unanimous 7th Circuit panel, consisting of Easterbrook, Bauer, and Posner, adhering to Supreme Court precedent, says that the 2d Amendment is not incorporated in the 14th Amendment and thus does not apply to the states. Easterbrook’s opinion (PDF) — emphasizes federalism — the value of decentralized decisionmaking on the subject of gun rights . . .

The panel adheres to Supreme Court precedent, but it also lays out the federalism argument in clear bold terms for future consumption by the Supreme Court. . .

See how this helps the Sotomayor nomination?

Sotomayor was labeled “anti-gun” by Gun Owners of America for refusing to extend to the states the U.S. Supreme Court’s 2008 decision overturning a Washington, D.C., handgun ban. The group said a January ruling by a three-judge panel that included Sotomayor displayed “pure judicial arrogance” for declining to throw out a New York state weapons law.

Very cool. You don’t love the law? Then you don’t get it!

Posted in Lex scripta, Medialites, Packing heat | Leave a Comment »

Jordan ejects Jewish jurists

Posted by Ron Coleman on June 1, 2009

Michael Factor writes that notwithstanding the “normalization” guaranteed by the peace treaty between Israel and Jordan signed by the late King Hussein and Yitzchak Rabin, Jordanian lawyers hold themselves to a “higher” standard and refuse to do business with Israelis, whether lawyers or companies:

Some of our clients, particularly pharmaceutical manufacturers, file in Jordan, and have had applications abandoned.

In this instance, it is Jordan that loses out. Israeli science and engineering is more advanced than that or her neighbors, but labor is cheaper in the surrounding Arab states. A normalization of relationships between Israel and Jordan would result in closer economic cooperation that is more important to Jordan than to Israel.

Of course, this should be dealt with on a political level. It does not help that when the Special 301 Report published, Ben Eliezer (Fuad) the Minister of Trade and Industry . . .  announced his ignorance of IP issues. One also wonders where WIPO is.

So… where is WIPO?  Well, before pointing a finger I’d like to know what it knows and when it knew it.

Oh, you’re wondering what “the Special 301 Report” is?  Me too. Every knows about the Special 301 Report, which you can get here, assuming you haven’t already memorized it as I have. Why, you know what they say:  The “Special 301” Report is an annual review of the global state of intellectual property rights (IPR) protection and enforcement. This Report reflects the Administration’s resolve to encourage and maintain effective IPR protection and enforcement worldwide.

Call me Fouad

Call me Fouad

Oh, and Fouad?  That’s this guy.  Yeah, well.

Hat tip to @IP_Updates.

Posted in Oppression, Orient | Leave a Comment »

So this is what it’s come to!

Posted by Ron Coleman on June 1, 2009

Ann Althouse (on Instapundit):

I’M GRADING EXAMS at a Starbucks in Cincinnati.

Man, that is tough.  From now on I’m getting my coffee at 7-11 — they’re just pass / fail!

Posted in Jocularity | Leave a Comment »

Slow burn

Posted by Ron Coleman on May 31, 2009

The New York Times writes, regarding the General Motors bankruptcy:

Rarely has a company fallen so far and so fast as General Motors.

“Fast”?  Hello?!

Actually, Michelene Maynard doesn’t really mean that:  She documents the exact opposite of a “fast” fall in the otherwise perfectly good article that follows.  It’s just that, well, you know those blogs — no one edits the darn things, right:

“I never ever could have believed that one day this thing would go that way,” said Jim Wangers, a retired G.M. executive who was part of the team that developed the Pontiac GTO, and the author of “Glory Days,” about Pontiac’s heyday in the muscle-car era of the 1960s….

The company did have vast numbers of loyal buyers, but G.M. lost them through a series of strategic and cultural missteps starting in the 1960s.

It bungled efforts in the 1980s to cut costs by sharing the underpinnings of its cars across different brands, blurring their distinctiveness.

G.M. gave in to union demands in 1990 and created a program that paid workers even when plants were not running, forcing it to build cars and trucks it could not sell without big incentives.

The Times article ultimately avoids a key issues by the light of everyone with an ounce of economics understanding:  Those union demands, and that giving in to them, made the structural cost of buying any GM car completely uncompetitive, even when they were desirable to own.

Was this GM’s fault?  It probably could have done a lot more to bargain tough with its unions.  But how much more?  Was a GM lockout going to happen in any version of the America most of us have ever known?  How was GM to deal with this:

[In 2007, the UAW’s President Ron] Gettelfinger . . . . declared that he is not in a “concessionary mood.” UAW workers at Ford and GM agreed to a health-care cost-sharing deal during an unusual round of mid-contract negotiations in 2005. Closing the competition gap with Japanese auto makers now, Mr. Gettelfinger insists, requires not more concessions by auto workers—but a Japanese-style government health-care system for all workers.

“We pay more, but get less,” he thundered to roaring applause at a recent NAACP luncheon . . .

Before the 2005 “givebacks,” the Detroit Three companies picked up the entire health-care tab for all their hourly workers—active, retired, dependents and, incredibly, even laid-off workers till they found other jobs. Workers were not required to pay any premiums, deductibles or co-pays-except for routine physical exams and prescription drugs. The 2005 deal left these benefits virtually untouched . . .  In short, for a grand total of $752 in out-of-pocket annual costs, UAW retirees and their spouses get full medical coverage for life. Given the huge retiree population that the Big Three support—GM has three times more retirees than active workers—this has saddled them with a combined unfunded health-care liability exceeding $100 billion. . . .

UAW workers still enjoy a health-care deal that no one else in America or Japan—or quite possibly the planet—does. Yet Mr. Gettelfinger said last week that the 2005 health-care givebacks were the toughest decision he ever made in his entire career. This is a startling admission that reflects the depth of the UAW’s entitlement mentality, and its detachment from the world that its fellow Americans inhabit. But such lavish expectations are unsustainable under any system—American or Japanese. This is a reality that Mr. Gettelfinger must accept. Otherwise, he may well push U.S. auto makers over the cliff—and his comrades with them.

It remains to be seen whether and to what extent Prime Minister Obama and his union-financed Congress will do their best to put Humpty Dumpty–the UAW, that is, no matter whether it bears a BUICK, CHEVROLET or CADILLAC nameplate–back together again.  When you’re spending a trillion dollars a year, after all, picking up another $100 million is nothing, especially when you hold so much stock in the debtor.

Better question:  Will conservatives (I didn’t say Republicans) do anything to stop the process by which we might indeed join the lot of them as they proceed, Wile E. Coyote-like, down into the gulch?  Or have we so diluted our voices with nonsense such as screaming about Obama’s date with his wife, his use of teleprompters and his choice of mustard that when it comes to policy discussions that really matter, we’re…

Just about as market-friendly, idea-wise, as GM?

Posted in Gelt, Sisyphus, Stragety | 1 Comment »

Weird bedfellows

Posted by Ron Coleman on May 28, 2009

Vodkapundit reports on odd traffic flowing around a triangle whose points are at Damascus, Jerusalem and Moscow.

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a Comment »