Likelihood of Success

Ron Coleman’s pretty good blog

What’s crawling under that Ron

Posted by Ron Coleman on January 8, 2008

The New Republic has recently become famous for its making-stuff-up journalism.

But they sure seem to have good sources for this — a collection of old Ron Paul publications that show him to be every bit the creep we thought he was.

A slimy creep. Time to go, Ronnie boy.

UPDATE:  More here, from David Bernstein.

Posted in Politics and Poker | 4 Comments »

Warm snap

Posted by Ron Coleman on January 7, 2008

It was spring-like in New York today, and tomorrow promises to be even balmier. And it was only at the end of last week’s bitter cold snap that I was encouraging humanity to hang in there, spring is coming!

But it is an insidious trick, a snare for the evil inclination and a bait for the spirit, to be presented with a premature thaw only a week after New Year’s, knowing as we do that it will be torn from us by January’s glacial jaws. Is it better to have thawed and frozen, or never to have warmed at all?

Some people encountering such low-pressure lure believe it wise to keep themselves clad in their icy exteriors, despite the transparent promise of a few days of coatless weather. They focus on the frigid fact that the warmup is doomed, and would rather maintain an algid affect for the long haul than risk the heartbreak of halfhearted heartwarming.

Others take a quick meltdown for what it’s worth and pull down their frosty fences, figuring it’s a lot cheaper than a standby flight to Hawaii and less flaky, too. But is it really wise to expose oneself to such spiritual swings? Whose soul, after all, is made of Pyrex, immune to such raw shifts of hot and cold?

Not mine. My heart can’t handle the melt-and-freeze cycle, crystallizing and cracking with each go-round.

I’ll bundle up and brave the warm. My New York winter is not done with me.

Posted in Heart and spirit | 11 Comments »

By her own hand

Posted by Ron Coleman on January 7, 2008

Overlawyered asks, is it really possible — or, practical — to design a system that makes it impossible for suicidal psychiatric patients to kill themselves?

Most patients who are admitted to inpatient psychiatric facilities these days arrive there because they are either suicidal or psychotic. Short stays are the norm, and thus hospital staff are given the difficult task of caring for numerous patients who are very sick. Indeed, caring for the very sick is what hospitals do; but assuring safety for patients who are actively intent on hurting or killing themselves has always been a difficult task. Patients who are chronically suicidal often spend a great deal of time contemplating the method of their demise and it takes very little time to accomplish this goal once the final decision is made.

No psychiatric system, no matter how elaborately conceived, can assure us that a desperately depressed patient driven by suicidal thoughts will not harm himself. By seeking to hold someone responsible for the unfortunate events like those that occurred with Ms. Ferrell, our legal system drives the health care industry to spend inordinate amounts of monies to reduce patient risk to as close as zero as possible. Such pursuits invariably raise costs and limit services within our health care system which operates within a finite fiscal reality of uneven private and Medicaid reimbursements.

Ultimately, someone who wants out badly enough will find a way.

Posted in Heart and spirit, Scientificus | Leave a Comment »

MLK Federal Courthouse, Newark – interior

Posted by Ron Coleman on January 7, 2008

The law only appears to be mazelike. This morning in Newark, at least, it was simple.

Posted in Americana, Lex scripta, Metropolis | Leave a Comment »

The magnificent seven

Posted by Ron Coleman on January 6, 2008

I try not to cross-post with LIKELIHOOD OF CONFUSION® too often, but this seemed like a good general topic even though it’s “blawgy,” and increasingly the audience for the two blogs doesn’t really intersect:

I hadn’t picked up on this — as part of its “ABA 100” story, the ABA Journal published brief profiles of the seven “revolutionaries” of law blogging, as they see it:

All good choices. One thing I find noteworthy: Only one of them (Goldstein) works for a major law firm (though probably most or many of them have, at one time or another). I wish I had the time to run down the whole ABA 100. I suspect the big firms are way under-represented, especially considering the obsession with Big Law at publications such as American Lawyer.

Why? It’s not just because running a good legal blog is time-consuming. It’s because blogging well on a real topic requires independence of mind, a distinct style, strong opinions and willingness to stick out — not a good combination at all for success in institutional corporate law firms. Believe me.

Posted in Blogophilia, Heart and spirit, Lex scripta | 2 Comments »

Tipping the scales

Posted by Ron Coleman on January 6, 2008

The definitive voice on the inevitable Bush / Cheney impeachment must be that of George McGovern, who writes “Why I Believe Bush Must Go” in the Washington Post. Via The Corner.

Does being the worst-ever-loser in a Presidential election give you a free spot in the Post for life? McGovern adds nothing new here, not a thing, to the tired and pathetic “impeachment” plaint. Is it the fact that he was involved, however, marginally, in the almost-impeachment adventures of Richard Nixon, that renders him qualified for free column inches for a lackluster political rant?

If that’s the standard, I suppose we can expect something similar from Monica Lewinsky soon.

Cross-posted on Right Wing News.

UPDATE:  Via Glenn,  Jonathan Adler points out that if McGovern is right about anything, it sure isn’t about his role in the would-be Nixon impeachment.

Posted in Medialites, Past is prologue, Politics and Poker | 8 Comments »

My brain hurts

Posted by Ron Coleman on January 5, 2008

If you want to feel like you know what’s going on with the debates and the politics and the whole thing, but like me you don’t really want to work that hard, I think Glenn Reynolds’s round-up here is a good place to start.  And finish.

Posted in Politics and Poker | 5 Comments »

Over Peter Detmold Park approaching East River

Posted by Ron Coleman on January 4, 2008

Just a reminder — there will be spring.

Good Shabbos!

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a Comment »

Stained glass in cupola, 60 Centre St. courthouse

Posted by Ron Coleman on January 3, 2008

Keep looking up! No telling what you will see, what light will bleed through… what colors are there to amaze and inspire, even in the dullest of places.

Posted in Heart and spirit, Lex scripta, Metropolis | 7 Comments »

Wow.

Posted by Ron Coleman on January 3, 2008

Michael Malone:apples.jpg

Other search companies are racing to come up with better paradigms that Google’s own. The company has also begun to bleed a lot of the brilliant talent — the latest being new business director Chris Sacca — that made the company great (and one of my rules is to always ignore the reasons key people leave, just count the feet). Google is also beginning to rush around into all sorts of unconnected new businesses — electrical power? — that suggest too much money and too little focus. It’s begun to execute new projects — the Android ‘Google Phone’ initiative for example — with a mediocrity far removed from its traditional brilliance. And, if what one reads on tech gossip sites like ValleyWag is true, then the top executives of Google are beginning to exhibit the kind of arrogance, indifference to common morality, and sheer decadence that always precedes a fall … not to mention a whole host of shareholder lawsuits and a visit from the Justice Department.

I wish I could be more optimistic about such a remarkable company. And certainly no company with the market presence of Google will simply go away. But right now I can’t give the company better than a 50 percent chance of escaping one of the biggest meltdowns in tech history.

Wow. Via Glenn.

Posted in Gelt, Stragety | 2 Comments »