Likelihood of Success

Ron Coleman’s pretty good blog

Conference room days

Posted by Ron Coleman on November 21, 2007

Glenn Reynolds got me all excited for nothing:

ANOTHER HOLLYWOOD SUICIDE BOMB: Wagner James Au emails: Not sure anyone’s pointed this out yet, but *Redacted* was a giant bomb, I mean just disastrous in relation to profile, ranking *50th* place in last weekend’s box office receipts.

Here I thought I was finally going to go see a movie, but “Redacted,” it turns out, is not what I thought it was. No, it’s another pro-surrender movie and it’s tanking. That’s fine, but I was hoping — from the title, you know? — that it was a movie about document production in a big law firm, as I wrote about in my never-written book, Boiling the Ocean (pdf). I was even going to go out and buy a new REDACTED stamp and everything — just to relive old times.

I can’t understand why no one makes movies like that!

UPDATE:  Contrary to some suggestions to the contrary in the comments, it appears that it may be a lot worse — not a lot better — for “Redacted” than initial reports suggested.

Posted in Americana, Jocularity | 6 Comments »

Big shoe drops

Posted by Ron Coleman on November 20, 2007

On the Second Amendment.  Evidently, what was a stupid, unsupportable decision to this New York judge is of some interest to a few Supreme Court justices.  They might agree with him. Or not.

Posted in Americana, Lex scripta | Leave a Comment »

What is to be done?

Posted by Ron Coleman on November 19, 2007

Christopher Hitchens (via Instapundit):

“[T]he cabinet,” according to the Nov. 18 New York Times, “has sent legislation to the Parliament softening the de-Baathification law that had prevented former Baathists’ working in government jobs.” I wonder how many people, reading that ordinary sentence about “the cabinet” and “the Parliament,” as reported also in independent Iraqi media, have any idea what it means when compared with the insane proceedings of the totalitarian abattoir state that was Iraq until 2003.

Now juxtapose that with this Instapundit link:

NOT EXACTLY POSITIVE COVERAGE FROM THE NEW YORK TIMES:

Democrats in Congress failed once again Friday to shift President Bush’s war strategy in Iraq, but insisted that they would not let up. Their explanation for their latest foiled effort seemed to boil down to a simple question: “What else are we supposed to do?”

This is the same party whose legislative leader said, referring to Ronald Reagan, “The evil is in the White House” when he faced down Stalinism’s heirs. Let me give you the whole quote from the now mistily-remembered Tip O’Neill:

The evil is in the White House at the present time. And that evil is a man who has no care and no concern for the working class of America and the future generations of America, and who likes to ride a horse. He’s cold. He’s mean. He’s got ice water for blood.

Talk about ice water. The Democratic leadership, fearing their left flank, actually want to retreat, not when we’re losing, but when we’re winning — literally to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory and to turn over an entire country to an otherwise defeated “totalitarian abattoir state” — as we’ve done before.

“What else are we supposed to do?”

Cross-posted on Right Wing News.

Posted in Oppression, Orient, Stragety | 2 Comments »

Block that metaphor!

Posted by Ron Coleman on November 19, 2007

Kaus:

Remember that it’s a three-way race. According to the current polls, Hillary’s precarious position in Iowa requires that both Obama and Edwards remain strong opponents, splitting the anti-Clinton vote. Like an inexperienced karate initiate, she can take on all comers only if they attack in a precisely symmetrical formation.

Posted in Style | 1 Comment »

Their day in court

Posted by Ron Coleman on November 19, 2007

Dahlia Lithwick writes perceptively about how critical it is that litigants — especially in family court — feel they have been heard by the court:

Last week in Las Vegas, Reno, Nev., millionaire Darren Mack shocked the court by pleading guilty, midtrial, to killing his estranged wife, Charla, in June 2006. . . . In the weeks before he murdered Charla, Darren Mack was frustrated and then enraged by Judge Weller’s interim custody and support order, which resulted in shared physical custody and the requirement that Darren pay Charla $10,000 per month in interim spousal support. Darren didn’t pay, Weller found him in contempt, and Darren declared bankruptcy. Convinced that Weller “had made up his mind prior to coming to court, … didn’t like him and no matter what he did, Weller would rule against him,” as a friend explained, Darren launched a crusade. . . .

Mazoltuv Borukhova was outraged by the Oct. 3 decision of Sidney F. Strauss, a state Supreme Court judge in Queens, to transfer temporary primary custody to Malakov, evidently without a hearing. Even if a judicial move like this sounds familiar—courtesy of the Britney Spears 24-hour legal cable extravaganza—it’s almost never done. Judge Strauss, however, switched custody because Borukhova “was allegedly not cooperating with supervised visitation.” . . .

I’ve come to suspect . . . that Mack may have snapped because, after years of feeling listened-to in the family courts, even when he lost, he came across a judge who seemed to reach swift conclusions, without always hearing him out.

After he pleaded guilty last week, Mack went out of his way to thank Judge Herndon, saying he appreciated the “integrity” the judge had shown throughout the murder trial. There is much that needs fixing in the family law system. But, at least from the perspective of these two aggrieved parents, the quickest fix seems to be a family court judge who schedules one more conference, and presides over one more hearing, and truly listens, even when she thinks she’s heard it all before.

These complaints are in the air all day if you are involved, as I am, with litigation matters that implicate anyone but the largest corporations. They’re especially pernicious in family court, where the judges are required to get involved in situations full of raw emotion and to issue rulings that are almost certain to inflame more.

But in almost any case, Lithwick is right: Nothing — nothing — outrages litigants as much as the perception that the judge isn’t listening, has already made up his mind, and isn’t fair. Thus I have found that many settlements, objectively unreachable, have been achievable when a judge, or even a court-appointed referee or other neutral, spends “quality time” in his or her chambers at a judicial settlement conference. It is ideal if both sides will agree to a period where each litigant can have the judge to him- or herself.

All of a sudden it turns out that, quite often, it really isn’t “about the money,” when a person feels he has had his day, however brief, “in court.” It says something about our litigation system, and about the arrogation of power by the government through the courts, that this is so often impossible to achieve. A large part of the complication comes from the increasing criminalization of almost every aspect of the family law system in the states, as extensively written about by bloggers such as Trudy Schuett.

It would be awful to contemplate that judges might start listening to these stories because it’s dangerous for them not to.

Cross-posted at Right Wing News.

Posted in Americana, Lex scripta, Oppression | 4 Comments »

Our ugly friends, the Saudis

Posted by Ron Coleman on November 18, 2007

What does a small-c-conservative Jew do with the Saudis?

Their latest exercise (or perhaps merely their latest one to draw worldwide attention) in medieval brutality, in which a female rape victim has been “sentenced” for her “crime” (see here for a more precise explanation of what really happened) is already well known on the Web. This regime is not ready for prime time, from the civilization point of view.

Where does that leave us?

Time out, here: By “us” I mean conservatives. And by conservatives, I mean conservatives who are sympathetic to the desire of Jewish inhabitants of the State of Israel not to be murdered. I thus read out of the movement antisemitic paleoconservatives such as Patrick Buchanan; yet I am not a neoconservative or even a Zionist either — just a politically conservative Jew who observes that conservatives are the best political friends of Jews in this country and in Israel.

Now, I find the most strident anti-Saudi voices are not Jewish, or Israeli. This is despite the fact that most of those voices, such as that of my friend Mary Madigan, are fabulously pro-Israel. Many neoconservatives, such as Daniel Pipes, sing much the same tune, and other conservatives, such as Ivan Eland of the Cato Institute, urge only a nominally more “balanced” approach that focuses entirely on the Kingdom’s tyrannical nature — the criticism of neocons being not their blindness to the strategic value of the Saudi relationship but rather their supposed oversensitivity on the importance of oil prices.

The United States should take a middle ground between the confrontational approach championed by neoconservatives and the Bush administration’s policy of appeasing the Saudi regime. The Saudi government is a medieval, despotic regime with an abysmal human rights record on a par with Iraq’s. The United States should withdraw political support from the regime and withdraw the U.S. military forces stationed on Saudi territory. The United States should not pull any diplomatic punches in pressuring the Saudi monarchy on its poor human rights record, its programs to acquire weapons of mass destruction, and its indirect support for terrorism.

Essentially, like the authoritarian “rogue states” (Iraq, Iran, Syria, Libya, Sudan, Cuba and North Korea), Saudi Arabia should be treated with suspicion, not friendship. At the same time, it should not be targeted for U.S. military attacks unless it is found directly culpable in sponsoring a terrorist attack against a U.S. target.

Putting Saudi Arabia essentially along the Axis of Evil is not a “middle ground,” however, if there is to be any hope of the relationship yielding strategic advantage for the U.S. By and large, conservative opinion in this country wants the Bush Administration to be tougher on the Saudis; and, contrary to what would be predicted by left wing and nativist fantasies about the “Zionist lobby,” this consensus by and large ignores what the primary victims of Islamist terrorism thing about Saudi Arabia’s role in the game: The Israelis, who recognize that Saudi Arabia is probably their last, best hope for a major Arab power that could broker some version of a Mideast “arrangement” that could perhaps give Israel decades more time to wait out some form of evolution in the Arab world away from violence and toward what we in the west regard as civilization — Israeli’s only long-term hope for survival from external threats.

There is no question that, as much as anyone else, the Saudis — by promoting the extremist Wahabi version of Islam — have done more to inflame Muslims to murderous violence than any other group, governmental or otherwise. But it is an error to conflate “the Saudis” into one homogeneous entity with only one agenda, except to the extent that that agenda is the maintenance of their continued power and influence. That bullet point on their “to do” list remains a key one, and that is why it is all but official Saudi policy that the State of Israel is a political and historical reality. That’s why the Israelis were ahead of many of their strongest supporters, who instinctively reject American military support of the Kingdom, and explicitly stated their support of a major U.S. arms sale to the Saudis last summer.

Saudi Arabia is a terrible place to live, but virtually none of us live there. Unlike Saddam Hussein’s Iraq, it is neither warlike in the traditional sense nor genocidal. What it once had in common with Saddam, its support of international terrorism, is clearly a policy that is changing. That does not mean we can expect the House of Saud to hand over its own members who have been supporting, and undoubtedly continue to support, our worst terrorist enemies, but it does mean that, unlike Saddam, there is a toehold of influence that the U.S. has over that process. What other powerful friends — with, or without scare quotes — does the U.S. have in the Arab Mideast?

Cross-posted on Right Wing News.

Posted in Oppression, Orient, Stragety | 3 Comments »

The stacked debate

Posted by Ron Coleman on November 17, 2007

The MSM giveth, and the MSM taketh away — they gaveth this one to Hillary, and the blogs — right and left — are screaming bloody murder!  Not only is Wolf (or perhaps, “Puppy”) Blitzer’s tender loving care raising eyebrows, but so is the utter preposterousness of having the post-debate analysis on CNN delivered by three people of whom two are former or present Clinton staffers — and, of course, not even mentioning it in the discussion.

But Noel Sheppard gets to the real heart of it:

Of course, the truly delicious hypocrisy is that these same folks haven’t in any way been angered by Carville, Gergen, or [Anderson] Cooper’s continual rants the past seven years against President Bush, members of his administration, and any politician with an “R” next to his or her name. Those opinions were certainly impartial, and by no means affected by any prior political affiliation.

Throw in George Stephanopoulos, even Patrick Buchanan — there are plenty of others presented to the public on the small screen as fair brokers but who have in fact been personally and professionally part of the political scene in active, i.e. non-journalistic, roles.  If any other field of endeavor had this much revolving-door logrolling going on as the mainstream media, the journos would be huffing and puffing with indignation.  At least give the New York Times credit on this one for calling out CNN — guess they’re sore they didn’t get into the game.

Fourth Estate indeed!

Posted in Medialites, Politics and Poker | 2 Comments »

Passing before you

Posted by Ron Coleman on November 16, 2007

WebMD:

When you go to sleep tonight, your brain may be busy making memories of what you did today — and it will do it in quick spurts, as if your day was being replayed in fast-forward.University of Arizona researchers report that the brain’s medial prefrontal cortex appears to replay daytime activities during sleep six to seven times faster than real time.

Somehow that sounds right — almost as if I can perceive that’s what’s happening when I (eventually) go to sleep.

Posted in Homo sapiens, Scientificus | 2 Comments »

More on the Facebook fantasy

Posted by Ron Coleman on November 15, 2007

As predicted: No one but Microsoft, evidently, was buying into the $15 billion valuation in the last “funding” round. Silicon Alley Insider:

The joke was indeed on Microsoft.

Fonzy says it’s even worse than that.

Posted in Futurama, Gelt, Nuvo-Techno | 1 Comment »

One of the best 14 liveblogging lines of the night

Posted by Ron Coleman on November 15, 2007

Reason Magazine:

8:51: What 9/11 is to Rudy, “the Bush administration” (as in “it’s the Bush administration’s fault”) is to Hillary. It’s a safety blanket to drape over the base voters who don’t trust her.

Posted in Americana, Politics and Poker | 1 Comment »